Canvey Island: The Dynamics of a Major Technological Risk Assessment

Purpose The increasing complexity and dynamism of new technology implemented or to implement have imposed substantial uncertainties and subjectivities in the risk assessment process. This paper aims to present a risk assessment methodology for e-procurement implementation based on modified analytic network process (ANP) coupled with fuzzy inference systems. Design/methodology/approach ANP is modified in such a way that the experts can provide necessary data precise numerical value, a range of numerical values, a linguistic term or a fuzzy number. The proposed methodology incorporates knowledge and judgements obtained from experts to carry out identification of risk factors and to assess the risk magnitude of the identified risk factors based on factor index, risk likelihood and risk severity. Findings Risk magnitude of third party systems are found to be minor with a belief of 100 per cent, and for in-house systems, the risk is found to be between minor with a belief of 30 per cent and major of 70 per cent. The results indicate that by using the proposed methodology, the technological risk assessment of new technology can be done effectively and efficiently. Research limitations/implications Using the results of this study, the practitioners can better know the pros and cons of implementing both in-house and third party e-procurement systems. Originality/value The modified ANP is used mainly to structure and prioritize the diverse risk factors. Finally, an illustrative example on technological risk assessment of both in-house and third party e-procurement systems is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology in real life situations.

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Risks of Risk Decisions

Science ◽

10.1126/science.208.4448.1114 ◽

1980 ◽

Vol 208 (4448) ◽

pp. 1114-1119 ◽

Cited By ~ 119

Author(s):

Chauncey Starr ◽

Chris Whipple

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Decision Process ◽

Cost Benefit ◽

Risk Assessments ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Financial Cost ◽

Technological Risk ◽

Risk Criteria ◽

Analytical Approaches

The analytical approaches utilized for evaluating the acceptability of technological risk originate from analogies to financial cost-benefit risk analysis. These analogies appear generally valid for viewing risk from a societal basis, but are not applicable to individual risk assessments. Conflicts arising from these different views of risk assessment provide insights to the origins of individual, intuitive evaluations. Societal risk decisions made under conflict represent political compromises, and the resulting decision process creates substantial conflict costs. The pragmatic use of quantitative risk criteria (safety targets) may be useful in reducing these costs.

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