Technological Risk Assessment And Management:Can We Integrate Terrorist Attacks?

2008 ◽  
pp. 339-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Fedra
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Technological Risk

scholarly journals On the Risk Assessment of Terrorist Attacks Coupled with Multi-Source Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xun Zhang ◽  
Min Jin ◽  
Jingying Fu ◽  
Mengmeng Hao ◽  
Chongchong Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Recommendation Algorithm ◽  
Spatial Risk ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
F Measure

Terrorism has wreaked havoc on today’s society and people. The discovery of the regularity of terrorist attacks is of great significance to the global counterterrorism strategy. In this study, we improve the traditional location recommendation algorithm coupled with multi-source factors and spatial characteristics. We used the data of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia from 1970 to 2016, and comprehensively considered 17 influencing factors, including socioeconomic and natural resource factors. The improved recommendation algorithm is used to build a spatial risk assessment model of terrorist attacks, and the effectiveness is tested. The model trained in this study is tested with precision, recall, and F-Measure. The results show that, when the threshold is 0.4, the precision is as high as 88%, and the F-Measure is the highest. We assess the spatial risk of the terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia through experiments. It can be seen that the southernmost part of the Indochina peninsula and the Philippines are high-risk areas and that the medium-risk and high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the coastal areas. Therefore, future anti-terrorism measures should pay more attention to these areas.

A New Fuzzy Rule Interpolation Approach to Terrorism Risk Assessment

2019 ◽  
pp. 351-372
Author(s):  
Shangzhu Jin ◽  
Jike Ge ◽  
Jun Peng
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Experimental Investigation ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
International Security ◽  
Fuzzy Rule ◽  
Fuzzy Reasoning ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Assessment Systems

Terrorist attacks launched by extremist groups or individuals have caused catastrophic consequences worldwide. Terrorism risk assessment therefore plays a crucial role in national and international security. Fuzzy reasoning based terrorism risk assessment systems offer a significant potential of providing decision support in combating terrorism, where highly complex situations may be involved. Nevertheless, little has been done in developing and applying an integrated hierarchical bidirectional (forward/backward) fuzzy rule interpolation mechanism that is tailored to suit decision support for terrorism risk assessment. This paper presents such an integrated approach that is capable of dealing with dynamic and insufficient information in the risk assessing process. In particular, the hierarchical system implementing the proposed techniques can predict the likelihood of terrorism attacks on different segments of focused attention. The results of an experimental investigation of this implemented system are represented, demonstrating the potential and efficacy of the proposed approach.

Quantitative analysis and risk assessment of terrorist attacks

2019 ◽  
pp. 61-66
Author(s):  
Mei Hong ◽  
Ren Zhang ◽  
Jingjing Ge ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Liang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Terrorist Attacks

A modified ANP and fuzzy inference system based approach for risk assessment of in-house and third party e-procurement systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ramkumar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technological Risk ◽  
Risk Magnitude

Purpose The increasing complexity and dynamism of new technology implemented or to implement have imposed substantial uncertainties and subjectivities in the risk assessment process. This paper aims to present a risk assessment methodology for e-procurement implementation based on modified analytic network process (ANP) coupled with fuzzy inference systems. Design/methodology/approach ANP is modified in such a way that the experts can provide necessary data precise numerical value, a range of numerical values, a linguistic term or a fuzzy number. The proposed methodology incorporates knowledge and judgements obtained from experts to carry out identification of risk factors and to assess the risk magnitude of the identified risk factors based on factor index, risk likelihood and risk severity. Findings Risk magnitude of third party systems are found to be minor with a belief of 100 per cent, and for in-house systems, the risk is found to be between minor with a belief of 30 per cent and major of 70 per cent. The results indicate that by using the proposed methodology, the technological risk assessment of new technology can be done effectively and efficiently. Research limitations/implications Using the results of this study, the practitioners can better know the pros and cons of implementing both in-house and third party e-procurement systems. Originality/value The modified ANP is used mainly to structure and prioritize the diverse risk factors. Finally, an illustrative example on technological risk assessment of both in-house and third party e-procurement systems is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology in real life situations.

Risks of Risk Decisions

Science ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 208 (4448) ◽  
pp. 1114-1119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chauncey Starr ◽  
Chris Whipple
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Financial Cost ◽  
Technological Risk ◽  
Risk Criteria ◽  
Analytical Approaches

The analytical approaches utilized for evaluating the acceptability of technological risk originate from analogies to financial cost-benefit risk analysis. These analogies appear generally valid for viewing risk from a societal basis, but are not applicable to individual risk assessments. Conflicts arising from these different views of risk assessment provide insights to the origins of individual, intuitive evaluations. Societal risk decisions made under conflict represent political compromises, and the resulting decision process creates substantial conflict costs. The pragmatic use of quantitative risk criteria (safety targets) may be useful in reducing these costs.

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