Telematics Technology Development Forecasting: The Patent Analysis and Technology Life Cycle Perspective

Author(s):  
Shu-Hao Chang ◽  
Chin-Yuan Fan
2013 ◽  
Vol 441 ◽  
pp. 1060-1063
Author(s):  
Hui Ling Yu ◽  
Hao Liang ◽  
De Lin Fan

Man-made boards often made use of waste wood materials. China is one of the worlds largest manufacturers and consumers of man-made board applications. Application of the law of evolution with a S-shaped curve could contribute essentially to the accuracy of the long-term forecast. This research seeks to determine the current stage and the position on the S-curve of man-made board technology in China on the TRIZ evolution theory and introduce a methodology which combines patent analysis and technology life cycle forecasting to find a niche space of man-made technology development in China.


1994 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent di Norcia

Abstract:The aim of this essay is to present a model of ethical technology management which assumes that elites who make the system design and development decisions should minimize the risks to stakeholders rather than maximize gains for their organizations. Given the unsettled state in ehical theory a familiar substantive Social, Economic, Environmental and Rights value set or ‘SEER’ ethic is presented. To enable foresight of the negative SEER effects of innovations a technology life cycle is introduced. A cognate issue life cycle is presented to facilitate the ethical resolution of SEER issues associated with such effects. The resultant problem of increased front end load delays and costs, due to ongoing system redesign and stakeholder discussions is found to preferable to high ‘rear end load’ crisis costs, e.g., of the Ford Pinto, Exxon Valdez, Dalkon IUD Shield, and the Union Carbide Bhopal plant. Furthermore the model promises improved returns on the capital investments involved, indications for further research in ethics, economics and organizational theory are noted.“Technology is not preordained. There are choices to be made.”—Ursula Franklin, The Real World of Technology


2022 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-29
Author(s):  
Serkan Altuntas ◽  
Soydan Aba

This study aims to propose a technology forecasting approach based on hierarchical S-curves. The proposed approach uses holistic forecasting by evaluating the S-curves of sub-technologies as well as the main technology under concern. A case study of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technologies is conducted to demonstrate how the proposed approach works in practice. This is the first study that applies hierarchical S-curves to technology forecasting of unmanned aerial vehicle technologies in the literature. The future trend of the UAV technologies is analysed in detail through a hierarchical S-curve approach. Hierarchical S-curves are also utilised to investigate the sub-technologies of the UAV. In addition, the technology development life cycle of technology is assessed by using the three indexes namely, (1) the current technological maturity ratio (TMR), (2) estimating the number of potential patents that could be granted in the future (PPA), and (3) forecasting the expected remaining life (ERL). The results of this study indicate that the UAV technologies and their sub-technologies are at the growth stage in the technology life cycle, and most of the developments in UAV technology will have been completed by 2048. Hence, these technologies can be considered emerging technologies.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 035905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdis Yousef Jamali ◽  
Alireza Aslani ◽  
Babak Farhang Moghadam ◽  
Marja Naaranoja ◽  
Mohammad Dehghani Madvar

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-10
Author(s):  
Joule Bergerson ◽  
Stefano Cucurachi ◽  
Thomas P. Seager

2011 ◽  
Vol 08 (02) ◽  
pp. 253-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
YONG CAO ◽  
LI ZHAO

The cyclicality, fluctuation, and periodicity of the technology requires the dynamic management of the intellectual property (IP) in enterprises. Unfortunately, companies do not connect the management of their IP to the underlying technology life cycle (TLC), and companies do not change the management of IP in different stages of the TLC. Anyway, most companies use one-size-fits-all method to manage all kinds of IP and different technologies. The purpose of this research is to arouse the attention on TLC characteristics of IP management research in academic and business fields. An IP management model is proposed to deal with the one-size-fits-all issue from the perspective of TLC which manifests the importance of phase characteristics of the technology in IP management. This paper indicates that the IP management strategy should vary with the periods of TLC. Likewise, the results from a case study about Motorola's IP management on global system for mobile (GSM) communications have primarily tested the feasibility and validity of IP management model.


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