scholarly journals Technology Forecasting of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technologies through Hierarchical S Curves

2022 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-29
Author(s):  
Serkan Altuntas ◽  
Soydan Aba
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Technology Forecasting ◽  
The Future ◽  
Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Technology Life Cycle ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Vehicle Technologies

This study aims to propose a technology forecasting approach based on hierarchical S-curves. The proposed approach uses holistic forecasting by evaluating the S-curves of sub-technologies as well as the main technology under concern. A case study of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technologies is conducted to demonstrate how the proposed approach works in practice. This is the first study that applies hierarchical S-curves to technology forecasting of unmanned aerial vehicle technologies in the literature. The future trend of the UAV technologies is analysed in detail through a hierarchical S-curve approach. Hierarchical S-curves are also utilised to investigate the sub-technologies of the UAV. In addition, the technology development life cycle of technology is assessed by using the three indexes namely, (1) the current technological maturity ratio (TMR), (2) estimating the number of potential patents that could be granted in the future (PPA), and (3) forecasting the expected remaining life (ERL). The results of this study indicate that the UAV technologies and their sub-technologies are at the growth stage in the technology life cycle, and most of the developments in UAV technology will have been completed by 2048. Hence, these technologies can be considered emerging technologies.

TRIZ Evolution Theory Applied to Man-Made Boards

2013 ◽  
Vol 441 ◽  
pp. 1060-1063
Author(s):  
Hui Ling Yu ◽  
Hao Liang ◽  
De Lin Fan
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Evolution Theory ◽  
Niche Space ◽  
Waste Wood ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Technology Life Cycle ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Current Stage

Man-made boards often made use of waste wood materials. China is one of the worlds largest manufacturers and consumers of man-made board applications. Application of the law of evolution with a S-shaped curve could contribute essentially to the accuracy of the long-term forecast. This research seeks to determine the current stage and the position on the S-curve of man-made board technology in China on the TRIZ evolution theory and introduce a methodology which combines patent analysis and technology life cycle forecasting to find a niche space of man-made technology development in China.

scholarly journals Summary of Application of Magnetic Coupling Resonance Technology in Power Inspection UAV

2018 ◽  
Vol 228 ◽  
pp. 02007
Author(s):  
Ji Jiang ◽  
Xuanyi Liu ◽  
Xiaoming Zha
Keyword(s):  
Electric Field ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Magnetic Coupling ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Field Inspection ◽  
Manual Inspection ◽  
The Status ◽  
Aerial Vehicle

With the improvement of technology, technology began to gradually applied to every field, electric field inspection also began to gradually enable unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) inspection instead of manual inspection. Articles in the domestic and foreign research literature of unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) magnetic coupling resonance charging basis, this paper introduces the unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) magnetic coupling resonance charging technology development and application of the status quo, points out the problems in the current study of, offers a new way for the further research in this field.

Technology Evolution Modeling and Decision Making Under Uncertainty

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Arendt ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Richard J. Malak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Modeling Technique ◽  
Technology Evolution ◽  
The Future ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Evolution Modeling

Design is an uncertain human activity involving decisions with uncertain outcomes. Sources of uncertainty in product design include uncertainty in modeling methods, market preferences, and performance levels of subsystem technologies, among many others. The performance of a technology evolves over time, typically exhibiting improving performance. As the performance of a technology in the future is uncertain, quantifying the evolution of these technologies poses a challenge in making long-term design decisions. Here, we focus on how to make decisions using formal models of technology evolution. The scenario of a wind turbine energy company deciding which technology to invest in demonstrates a new technology evolution modeling technique and decision making method. The design of wind turbine arrays is a complex problem involving decisions such as location and turbine model selection. Wind turbines, like many other technologies, are currently evolving as the research and development efforts push the performance limits. In this research, the development of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits. The S-curve model typically represents the evolution of just one performance attribute, but designers generally deal with problems involving multiple important attributes. Pareto frontiers representing the set of optimal solutions that the decision maker can select from at any point in time allow for modeling the evolution of technologies with multiple attributes. As the performance of a technology develops, the Pareto frontier shifts to a new location. The assumed S-curve form of technology development allows the designer to apply the uncertainty of technology development directly to the S-curve evolution model rather than applying the uncertainty to the future performance, giving a more focused application of uncertainty in the problem. The multi-attribute technology evolution modeling technique applied in decision-making gives designers greater insight when making long-term decisions involving technologies that evolve.

scholarly journals A Study on Antenna of Low-Probability of Intercept for LOS Datalink System

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 519-526
Author(s):  
Jinwoo Park ◽  
Byunggil Yu ◽  
Euntae Jung ◽  
Ilhyun Park ◽  
Jongwoo Seo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Beam Steering ◽  
Directional Pattern ◽  
Unit Element ◽  
Array Antenna ◽  
Array Antennas ◽  
The Future ◽  
Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Low Probability Of Intercept

In this paper, an array antenna for LOS datalink for mounting UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) of low-probability of intercept is presented. For low RCS, radome was designed by conformal form, and other components were inserted into the UAV. The antenna of the transmitter and receiver are each composed of 12×12 array antennas, and include a beam steering function by controlling the phase of the unit element for the Uni-directional pattern and the Bi-directional pattern. As a result of the measurement of the manufactured antenna, it was confirmed that all the required specifications were met, and the installing possibility of the UAV platform on low-probability of intercept in the future was confirmed.

scholarly journals Use of ammunition with programmable blasting time in air-defense complex

2020 ◽  
pp. 113-119
Author(s):  
В.В. Воїнов
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Air Defense ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Article Analysis ◽  
Wide Availability ◽  
Aerial Vehicle ◽  
New Type ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
Vehicle Technologies ◽  
The Cost

The rapid spread and wide availability of unmanned aerial vehicle technologies creates a new type of airborne threat - massive and cheap strike and reconnaissance drones. It creates the new challenges for the army and objects air defense - improving the accuracy of air targets hitting and reducing the cost of ammunition. In article analysis of increasing the possibilities of the small air targets defeating by the available air defense means was done. A significant increase in the efficiency of hitting targets supposed to get by existing anti-aircraft artillery with help by the use of ammunition with programmable blasting time. A number of measures have been proposed to improve existing air defense facilities to enable them to use such type of ammunition.

Ethics, Technology Development, and Innovation

1994 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent di Norcia
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Technology Management ◽  
System Design ◽  
Real World ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Union Carbide ◽  
Front End ◽  
Technology Life Cycle

Abstract:The aim of this essay is to present a model of ethical technology management which assumes that elites who make the system design and development decisions should minimize the risks to stakeholders rather than maximize gains for their organizations. Given the unsettled state in ehical theory a familiar substantive Social, Economic, Environmental and Rights value set or ‘SEER’ ethic is presented. To enable foresight of the negative SEER effects of innovations a technology life cycle is introduced. A cognate issue life cycle is presented to facilitate the ethical resolution of SEER issues associated with such effects. The resultant problem of increased front end load delays and costs, due to ongoing system redesign and stakeholder discussions is found to preferable to high ‘rear end load’ crisis costs, e.g., of the Ford Pinto, Exxon Valdez, Dalkon IUD Shield, and the Union Carbide Bhopal plant. Furthermore the model promises improved returns on the capital investments involved, indications for further research in ethics, economics and organizational theory are noted.“Technology is not preordained. There are choices to be made.”—Ursula Franklin, The Real World of Technology

The development of counter-unmanned aerial vehicle technologies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqi ZHANG ◽  
Lei ZHANG ◽  
Baichun YANG ◽  
Hairui GU ◽  
Dawei WANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Vehicle Technologies

scholarly journals Position Identification Using Image Processing for UAV Flights in Martian Atmosphere

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-262
Author(s):  
Shin-Ichiro Higashino ◽  
Toru Teruya ◽  
Kazuhiko Yamada ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Image Processing ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Mahalanobis Distance ◽  
Martian Atmosphere ◽  
Criterion Variable ◽  
Crater Detection ◽  
The Future ◽  
Aerial Vehicle

This paper presents a method for the position identification of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in the Martian atmosphere in the future. It uses the image processing of craters captured via an onboard camera of the UAV and database images. The method is composed of two processes: individual crater detection using a cascade object detector and position identification using the recognition Taguchi (RT)-method. In crater detection, objects with shapes that resemble craters are detected regardless of their positions, and the positions of multiple detected craters are identified using the criterion variable D*, which is a normalized Mahalanobis distance. D* is calculated from several feature variables expressing the area ratios and relative positions of the detected craters in the RT-method.

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