An analysis of the spatial and temporal abundance patterns of developing striped bass (Morone saxatilis) ichthyoplankton stages in the Potomac Estuary, including a Markovian description of transport, indicates that annual differences in the distribution of spawning fish are not likely to account wholly for the wide fluctuations in year-class success. Year-class success can be decomposed into the product of two factors — one extrinsic, acting upon the eggs and larvae, and the other, a behavioral property of the adult stock. The effect of extrinsic environmental conditions upon year-class success can be measured relative to the maximum computed survival of eggs to post-finfold larvae among all locations and times during a given year. Apparently, the behavior of the spawning adult fish is not well matched with the environmental conditions favorable to ichthyoplankton survival, and therefore, the actual spawning distribution yields only a fraction (the spawning fitness) of the maximum production possible during that year. Spawning fitnesses were estimated to be small (< 0.02 out of 1.0) and varied by less than a factor of two over the three seasons observed. In contrast, the year-class success as measured by post-finfold production differed 35-fold over the same 3 yr. It appears most likely that the large range in success is due primarily to the extrinsic, density-independent environmental factors which determine the optimum survivals in combination with spawning behavior. However, no strong case can be made for behavioral compensation by spawning fish to offset changes in the annual optimum survival conditions for ichthyoplankton.Key words: anadromous, ichthyoplankton development, Markovian transition probabilities, optimal survival, spawning behavior, spawning fitness, striped bass, transport model, year-class success
In situ observations of coral spawning and spawn slick at Lankayan Island, Sabah, Malaysia
