Watershed Risk Analysis Model for TVA’s Holston River Basin

1996 ◽  
pp. 65-70
Author(s):  
C. W. Chen ◽  
J. Herr ◽  
R. A. Goldstein ◽  
F. J. Sagona ◽  
K. E. Rylant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Analysis Model

scholarly journals Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cai ◽  
Zhu ◽  
Peng ◽  
Wang ◽  
Fan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
System A ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis ◽  
Regulation Method ◽  
Flood Regulation ◽  
Dadu River ◽  
Dam Breaking

To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking failure path in the system. To avoid the possible misperceptions of the probability of a certain event, Dam Breach Analysis Model (DB-IWHR) 2014 software and the flood regulation method were used to simulate the dam breaking progress. The posteriori continuous breaking failure paths were obtained, and then the original CPTs were refined based on the new evidence. The proposed method was applied to the Bala-Busigou-Shuangjiangkou (BL-BSG-SJK), which is located upstream of the Dadu River basin in China. The results show that three continuous breaking failure paths could be identified in the researched cascade dam system. A new BN model was created to determine the failure probability of the cascade dam system under the three continuous breaking failure paths. This analytical method may also be useful for other similar cases.

Watershed risk analysis model for TVA's Holston River basin

1996 ◽  
Vol 90 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 65-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. W. Chen ◽  
J. Herr ◽  
R. A. Goldstein ◽  
F. J. Sagona ◽  
K. E. Rylant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Analysis Model

scholarly journals Risk Analysis and Flood Hazard Assessment in the Hornád River Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 656 (1) ◽  
pp. 012010
Author(s):  
M Zeleňáková ◽  
M Šugareková ◽  
P Purcz ◽  
S Gałaś ◽  
M M Portela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Hazard Assessment

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

A novel failure mode and effect analysis model for machine tool risk analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 173-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huai-Wei Lo ◽  
James J.H. Liou ◽  
Chun-Nen Huang ◽  
Yen-Ching Chuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Machine Tool ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Effect Analysis

scholarly journals INTELLIGENCE CYCLE AS PART OF EFFECTIVE RISK ANALYSIS UNDER INTEGRATED BORDER MANAGEMENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (8) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
Jekaterina Livdāne ◽  
Iluta Arbidāne
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Huge Data ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis

The aim is to present common approach of processing of information as one of the main aspects for qualitative risk analysis, including all three components – threat, vulnerability and impact, in all levels: strategic, operational and tactical. The theoretical methodology is based on guidelines of common integrated risk analysis model (CIRAM), implemented in Schengen member states (MS) as a part of integrated border management (IBM). Based on the main task – to view particular legal bases and using historical research, analytical and descriptive methods, the legal bases of IBM in the field of risk analysis was explained, at first. Special attention was paid for description of each step of intelligent cycle, because only scrupulous following of methodology guaranteed the high quality of the product in situations when analytical units have huge amount of data from different sources every day. Different kinds of risk analysis (annual, quarterly, monthly, weekly or targeted for specific measures) are performed by European Border and Coast Guard (EBCG) and MS using the CIRAM methodology. Huge data flows should be managed in a structured way. The knowledge and practical implementation of CIRAM has a positive impact on overall internal security in the area of free movement. For this purpose, the amount of trained border guards was analysed. 

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