Long-run equilibrium between budget deficits and long-term interest rates

1995 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harjit K. Arora ◽  
Pami Dua
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Long-run equilibrium between budget deficits and long-term interest rate: An empirical note

1995 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-85
Author(s):  
Harjit K. Arora ◽  
Pami Dua ◽  
Mehdi Haririan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Note ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Federal Budget Deficits and Long-Term Interest Rates in USA

CFA Digest ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 40-41
Author(s):  
Michael Kobal
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Budget Deficits

scholarly journals Modeling The Relationships Between Export, Import, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Rupiah Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Nina Valentika ◽  
Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan ◽  
Ilmadi Ilmadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run

This research was a modification of research by Catalbas (2016) and Pratikto (2012). The model that can separate long-term and short-term components are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study aimed to model export, import, inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate using VECM and to test the causality between variables using the Granger Causality test. The inter-variable model obtained in this study was VECM with lag 2 using a deterministic trend with the assumption of none intercept no trend and two cointegrations. In export and import, there was an adjustment mechanism from the short-term to the long-term. This research model was appropriate to forecast the export and import where VECM with export and import as the target variables, the cointegration equation (long-run model) for  cointegration equation (long-run model) for Based on the Granger Causality test, it was found that there was a one-way relationship between exchange rates and inflation, export and interest rates, export and import, inflation and export, and import and the interest rate at the significance level of 5%.

Real Estate, Construction, Money, Credit, and Finance

2019 ◽  
pp. 336-368
Author(s):  
Peter Sinclair
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Initial Position ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The One ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This chapter examines the interactions between real estate markets on the one side and, on the other, interest rates, credit, and financial variables. A simple model is set up to analyze the key ideas, which will yield long run equilibrium values for the housing stock and the price of dwellings. It also shows the path that these variables will take toward the long run equilibrium, provided there are no further shocks, from any initial position of the housing stock. Next, the model is extended to explore complications. The chapter then turns to the recent historical record of the links between real estate and financial crises and to relevant policy issues.

Dynamic implications of GDP, interest rates, taxes, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices on property NPLs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuen-Wei Tham ◽  
Rosli Said ◽  
Yasmin Mohd Adnan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
First Time

Purpose The study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline. Findings This study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run. Research limitations/implications This paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs. Practical implications Appropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country. Social implications The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study. Originality/value The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.

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