Dynamic implications of GDP, interest rates, taxes, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices on property NPLs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuen-Wei Tham ◽  
Rosli Said ◽  
Yasmin Mohd Adnan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
First Time

Purpose The study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline. Findings This study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run. Research limitations/implications This paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs. Practical implications Appropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country. Social implications The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study. Originality/value The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.

Long run apartment price dynamics in Swedish and German cities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sviatlana Engerstam
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
German Cities

PurposeThis study examines the long term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment price dynamics in major metropolitan areas in Sweden and Germany.Design/methodology/approachThe main approach is panel cointegration analysis that allows to overcome certain data restrictions such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The Swedish dataset includes three cities over a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes seven cities for 29 years. Analysis of apartment price dynamics include population, disposable income, mortgage interest rate, and apartment stock as underlying macroeconomic variables in the model.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that apartment prices react more strongly on changes in fundamental factors in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar development of these macroeconomic variables in the long run in both countries. On one hand, overreactions in apartment price dynamics might be considered as the evidence of the price bubble building in Sweden. On the other hand, these two countries differ in institutional arrangements of the housing markets, and these differences might contribute to the size of apartment price elasticities from changes in fundamentals. These arrangements include various banking sector policies, such as mortgage financing and valuation approaches, as well as different government regulations of the housing market as, for example, rent control.Originality/valueIn distinction to the previous studies carried out on Swedish and German data for single-family houses, this study focuses on the apartment segment of the market and examines apartment price elasticities from a long term perspective. In addition, the results from this study highlight the differences between the two countries at the city level in an integrated long run equilibrium framework.

Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Net Asset Value (NAV) of Islamic Equity Unit Trust Funds: Cointegration Evidence from Malaysian Unit Trust Industry.

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 02-16
Author(s):  
Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman ◽  
Ahamed Kameel ◽  
Hasanuddeen Abdul Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Unit Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Trust Funds ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unit Trust ◽  
Trust Industry

Objective - Even though the unit trust industry witnessed high growth in portfolios size, performances and regulations, however, there is still insufficient understanding of various aspects of the industry such as the lack of information on the funds' unit price behavior and their trend in the long-term investment. This study, therefore, aims to investigate the long-run relationship between the chosen macroeconomic factors and the NAV of the Islamic equity unit trust funds as well as the effect of the (2007-2008) global financial crisis on the performance of Islamic equity unit trust funds and their unit prices. Methodology/Technique - The study utilized Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework in order to analyze this relationship over the period January 2006 to December 2012 using monthly data. Findings - The findings of the investigations confirmed that the selected macro-economic variables do share long-run relationship with the NAV of the Islamic equity unit trust funds in the Malaysian capital market. Novelty - A successful innovation of the relationship between the funds NAV and the selected macroeconomic variables will assist the entire interested group, such as, investors, management of the funds, government agencies, industry players and policy makers to estimate the future trend direction of the NAV and accordingly decide on the operational, managerial, and sustainable growth decisions. Type of Paper - Empirical Paper Keywords: , Islamic Equity Unit Trust Funds; Macroeconomic Variables; Malaysia

Long-run drivers and integration in interprovincial Canadian housing price relations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Kumar Vishwakarma
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stochastic Trend ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose This paper aims to examine the integration of housing markets in Canada by examining housing price data (1999–2016) of six metropolitan areas in different provinces, namely, Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax. The authors test for cointegration, driver cities of long-run relationships, long-run Granger causality and instantaneous causality in light of the global financial crisis (GFC) (2007–2008). Design/methodology/approach The authors use Johansen’s system cointegration approach with structural breaks. Moving average representation is used for common stochastic trend(s) analysis. Finally, the authors apply vector error correction model-based Granger causality and instantaneous causality. Findings Cities’ housing prices are in long-run equilibrium. Post-crisis Canadian housing markets became more integrated. The Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal markets drive the Canadian housing market, leading all cities toward long-run equilibrium. Strong long-run Granger causality exists, but the authors observe no instantaneous causality. Price information takes time to disseminate, and long-run price adjustments play a significant role in causation. Practical implications The findings of cointegration increasing after the GFC and strong lead–lag can be used by investors to arbitrage and optimize portfolios. This can also help national and local policymakers in mitigating risk. Incorporating these findings can lead to better price forecasting. Originality/value This study presents many novelties for the Canadian housing market: it is the first to use repeat-sales regional pricing indices to test long-run behaviors, conduct common stochastic trend analyzes and present causality relations.

Participation and productivity will drive long run GDP

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Labour Participation

Subject OECD long-run growth projections are predicated on the 'secular stagnation' argument. Significance The OECD has sharply reduced its outlook for long-term rich-world growth with interest rates rising commensurately slower. Moreover, the International Labour Organization projects even weaker workforce growth than the OECD in the advanced economies in the 2020s. Impacts Trade among developing countries accounts for near 30% of all trade (from 10% in 1995) and will soon top trade among developed countries. Efforts to raise labour participation, quality and productivity are key to raising living standards. Lower growth makes it harder to stabilise debt-to-GDP ratios, just as ageing rich-world populations raise pension and health costs.

Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Market Sector Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-41
Author(s):  
Neeru Gupta ◽  
Ashish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the long-term and short-term relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and the selected Indian stock market sector indices over the period of 2010 to 2017. The Johansen Co-integration Test, the Vector error correction model (VECM), is applied to calculate the long-term and short-term relationship between sector indices and macroeconomic variables. It is found that stock prices are exposed to macroeconomic factors, but the level of sensitivity is different in different sectors. Out of five sectors taken in the study, it is found that only the realty sector has long run relationship with macroeconomic variables. Other sectors have no long run relationship with macroeconomic variables. Along with this, it is also found that the Auto index has a significant short-term positive relationship with gold prices and the FMCG sector index has a significant short-term positive relationship with industrial production. The consumer price index and exchange rate have significant short run relationship with realty sector index.

Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the food and drink industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (7) ◽  
pp. 1627-1641
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Daniel Stavárek ◽  
Tomáš Pražák ◽  
Marie Ligocká
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate and evaluate the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices of selected food and drink industry stocks during the period of 2005–2015, which saw the global financial crisis and its aftermath. Design/methodology/approach The paper employed correlation analysis and the Johansen cointegration test with the vector error correction mechanism for EU companies operating in the food and drink industry. The paper tested the effects of GDP, inflation and interest rates (IR) on the stock prices of companies from Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and the UK. Findings Based on the results, the authors can see that GDP has a generally positive effect on stock price development. In contrast, the relationship between stock prices and inflation and IR is negative in most cases. Originality/value Despite the fact that a majority of empirical research on companies in the food and drink sector was performed using the microeconomic approach, this paper used the macroeconomic approach and clearly demonstrated the effects of selected macro-variables on stock prices in selected EU markets. Macroeconomic factors shape the company’s performance and could potentially lead to persistent changes in supply and demand conditions in food and drink markets.

scholarly journals What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel

2010 ◽  
Vol 230 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin A. Kholodilin ◽  
Jan-Oliver Menz ◽  
Boriss Siliverstovs
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Wealth ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
International Panel ◽  
Differential Development ◽  
Long Run

SummaryIn this study, we suggest an explanation for the low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over the period 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per-capita income, the real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices in Canada and Germany is attributed to the fundamentals in these two countries. Canada and Germany are characterized by relatively low average growth rates of real disposable income and relatively high interest rates, resulting in depressed housing prices over a long period of time. Institutional structure accentuates these tendencies. Given the importance of housing wealth for private consumption, our paper aims at drawing the attention of policymakers to the necessity of preventing not only overheating but also overcooling of the housing market that entails lower economic growth rate.

Do the changes in macroeconomic variables have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on stock prices? Evidence from Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 312-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bisharat Hussain Chang ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Asymmetric Behavior ◽  
Long Run

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine whether macroeconomic variables have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on stock prices (SP) of Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index in the context of Pakistan. It also examines whether the asymmetric impact of macroeconomic variables on SP has been affected by tail events such as the global financial crisis.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models for the full sample period as well as in pre- and post-crisis periods. The whole sample period covers the data from June 2004 to June 2016 which include 145 observations in total. The pre-crisis period covers data from June 2004 to December 2007 and the post-crisis period covers the data from January 2009 to June 2016 where these periods include 43 and 90 observations, respectively.FindingsThe findings suggest that the relationship between macroeconomic variables and SP is asymmetric in the short run whereas this effect is symmetric in the long run when the whole sample period is selected. However, when pre- and post-crisis periods are selected this effect becomes asymmetric in the long run as well; that is, positive and negative shocks in macroeconomic variables do not affect the SP in the same way.Practical implicationsInvestors, governments and other stakeholders are advised to consider the asymmetric behavior of macroeconomic variables and SP while making an investment or other decisions. They may consider the financial crisis as well since the asymmetric behavior of the underlying variables change as a result of the financial crisis.Originality/valueThis study extends previous studies by examining the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables and also contributes to the existing literature by discussing how this relationship changes as a result of the financial crisis.

Evaluating survey-based forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic variables

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios Fassas ◽  
Stephanos Papadamou ◽  
Dimitrios Kenourgios
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study examines the forecasting performance of the professional analysts participating in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators Survey using an alternative methodological research design.Design/methodology/approachThis work employs two methodologies, namely a panel specification, with the cross-section being the forecast horizon (from 1-month to 18-months ahead forecasts) and the time period being the time that the forecast was made and a quantile regression technique, which evaluates the hidden nonmonotonic relations between the forecasts and the target variables being forecasted.FindingsThe empirical findings of this study show that survey-based forecasts of certain key macroeconomic variables are generally biased but still efficient predictors of target variables. In particular, we find that survey participants are more efficient in predicting long-term interest rates in the long-run and short-term interest rates in the short run, while the predictability of medium-term interest rates is the least accurate. Finally, our empirical analysis suggests that currency fluctuations are very hard to predict in the short run, while we show that survey-based forecasts are among the most accurate predictors of GDP deflator and growth.Practical implicationsEvaluating the accuracy of economic forecasts is critical since market participants and policymakers utilize such data (as one of several inputs) for making investment, financial and policy decisions. Therefore, the quality of a decision depends, in part, on the quality of the forecast. Our empirical results should have immediate implications for asset pricing models that use interest rates and inflation forecasts as variables.Originality/valueThe present study marks a methodological departure from existing empirical attempts as it proposes a simpler yet powerful approach in order to investigate the efficiency of professional forecasts. The employed empirical specifications enable market participants to investigate the information content of forecasts over different forecast horizons and the temporal evolution of forecast quality.

Integration between the Asian REIT markets and macroeconomic variables

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Kang Loo ◽  
Melati Ahmad Anuar ◽  
Suresh Ramakrishnan
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run relationship and short-term linkage between the Asian REIT markets and their respective macroeconomic variables. Design/methodology/approach – The data collected comprised total return REIT Index from Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea and their macroeconomic variables from the date of availability of the data until December 2014. The macroeconomic variables are either available in monthly or quarterly basis, they will be separately tested with REIT Index respectively to their frequency. All the variables are tested for its stationarity prior to the investigation of their long-run relationship and short-term linkage using Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test. Findings – The results showed that certain of the emerging REIT markets show a higher degree of integration with macroeconomic variables in the long run. This implies that the emerging REIT markets are more sensitive towards the change in macroeconomic environment in relative to the developed REIT markets. Practical implications – The paper implied that the distinction of each market structure and their unique way of policy implementation. The findings can assists policy makers to understand about the significance of policy implementation on the Asian REIT markets prior to decision making and also for the portfolio management my asset managers. Originality/value – The paper is one of the few attempts at assessing the long-term relationship and short term linkage between the Asian REIT markets and the macroeconomic variables.

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