Impact of Representing Model Error in a Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

2017 ◽  
Vol 175 (3) ◽  
pp. 1155-1167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Govindan Kutty ◽  
Rohit Muraleedharan ◽  
Amit P. Kesarkar
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

scholarly journals Parameter Estimation Using Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in the Presence of Model Error

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (5) ◽  
pp. 1568-1582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Ruiz ◽  
Manuel Pulido
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Treatment Techniques ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Error Treatment ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract This work explores the potential of online parameter estimation as a technique for model error treatment under an imperfect model scenario, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system, using a simple atmospheric general circulation model, and an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) approach. Model error is introduced in the imperfect model scenario by changing the value of the parameters associated with different schemes. The parameters of the moist convection scheme are the only ones to be estimated in the data assimilation system. In this work, parameter estimation is compared and combined with techniques that account for the lack of ensemble spread and for the systematic model error. The OSSEs show that when parameter estimation is combined with model error treatment techniques, multiplicative and additive inflation or a bias correction technique, parameter estimation produces a further improvement of analysis quality and medium-range forecast skill with respect to the OSSEs with model error treatment techniques without parameter estimation. The improvement produced by parameter estimation is mainly a consequence of the optimization of the parameter values. The estimated parameters do not converge to the value used to generate the observations in the imperfect model scenario; however, the analysis error is reduced and the forecast skill is improved.

scholarly journals A THREE-DIMENSIONAL AEROSOL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM FOR AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3 ◽  
pp. 2215-2218
Author(s):  
Z. Zang ◽  
X. Pan ◽  
W. You ◽  
Y. Liang
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Local Time ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Surface Concentration ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Surface Observations ◽  
Assimilation System

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system is implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry model, and the control variables consist of eight species of the Model for Simulation Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry scheme. In the experiments, the three-dimensional profiles of aircraft speciated observations and surface concentration observations acquired during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change field campaign are assimilated. The data assimilation experiments are performed at 02:00 local time 2 June 2010, assimilating surface observations at 02:00 and aircraft observations from 01:30 to 02:30 local time. The results show that the assimilation of both aircraft and surface observations improves the subsequent forecasts. The improved forecast skill resulting from the assimilation of the aircraft profiles persists a time longer than the assimilation of the surface observations, which suggests the necessity of vertical profile observations for extending aerosol forecasting time.

scholarly journals Simulation of Monsoon Depressions Using WRF-VAR: Impact of Different Background Error Statistics and Lateral Boundary Conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
pp. 3586-3613 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Routray ◽  
S. C. Kar ◽  
P. Mali ◽  
K. Sowjanya
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Single Observation ◽  
Monsoon Depressions ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract In a variational data assimilation system, background error statistics (BES) spread the influence of the observations in space and filter analysis increments through dynamic balance or statistical relationships. In a data-sparse region such as the Bay of Bengal, BES play an important role in defining the location and structure of monsoon depressions (MDs). In this study, the Indian-region-specific BES have been computed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. A comparative study using single observation tests is carried out using the computed BES and global BES within the WRF system. Both sets of BES are used in the assimilation cycles and forecast runs for simulating the meteorological features associated with the MDs. Numerical experiments have been conducted to assess the relative impact of various BES in the analysis and simulations of the MDs. The results show that use of regional BES in the assimilation cycle has a positive impact on the prediction of the location, propagation, and development of rainbands associated with the MDs. The track errors of MDs are smaller when domain-specific BES are used in the assimilation cycle. Additional experiments have been conducted using data from the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) as initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) in the assimilation cycle. The results indicate that the use of domain-dependent BES and high-resolution ERA-I data as IBCs further improved the initial conditions for the model leading to better forecasts of the MDs.

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