Twenty-first century probabilistic projections of precipitation over Ontario, Canada through a regional climate model ensemble

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3979-4001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Jinliang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Probabilistic Projections

scholarly journals Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the Twenty-First Century from Global and Regional Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4664-4687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward K. Vizy ◽  
Kerry H. Cook ◽  
Julien Crétat ◽  
Naresh Neupane
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
West African ◽  
First Century ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Surface Moisture ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Confident regional-scale climate change predictions for the Sahel are needed to support adaptation planning. State-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 90- and 30-km resolutions are run and analyzed along with output from five coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to predict how the Sahel summer surface temperature, precipitation, and surface moisture are likely to change at the mid- and late-twenty-first century due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario and evaluate confidence in such projections. Future lateral boundary conditions are derived from CMIP5 AOGCMs. It is shown that the regional climate model can realistically simulate the current summer evolution of the West African monsoon climate including the onset and demise of the Sahel wet season, a necessary but not sufficient condition for confident prediction. RCM and AOGCM projections indicate the likelihood for increased surface air temperatures over this century, with Sahara and Sahel temperature increases of 2–3.5 K by midcentury, and 3–6 K by late century. Summer rainfall and surface moisture are also projected to increase over most of the Sahel. This is primarily associated with an increase in rainfall intensity and not a lengthening of the wet season. Pinpointing exactly when the rainfall and surface moisture increase will first commence and by exactly what magnitude is less certain as these predictions appear to be model dependent. Models that simulate stronger warming over the Sahara are associated with larger and earlier rainfall increases over the Sahel due to an intensification of the low-level West African westerly jet, and vice versa.

scholarly journals Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Basin*,+

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1661-1684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Val Bennington ◽  
Steve Vavrus
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
First Century ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Lake Model ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Projected changes in lake-effect snowfall by the mid- and late twenty-first century are explored for the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Simulations from two state-of-the-art global climate models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are dynamically downscaled according to the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The downscaling is performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) with 25-km grid spacing, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model. Both downscaled models produce atmospheric warming and increased cold-season precipitation. The Great Lakes’ ice cover is projected to dramatically decline and, by the end of the century, become confined to the northern shallow lakeshores during mid-to-late winter. Projected reductions in ice cover and greater dynamically induced wind fetch lead to enhanced lake evaporation and resulting total lake-effect precipitation, although with increased rainfall at the expense of snowfall. A general reduction in the frequency of heavy lake-effect snowstorms is simulated during the twenty-first century, except with increases around Lake Superior by the midcentury when local air temperatures still remain low enough for wintertime precipitation to largely fall in the form of snow. Despite the significant progress made here in elucidating the potential future changes in lake-effect snowstorms across the Great Lakes basin, further research is still needed to downscale a larger ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations, ideally using a higher-resolution, nonhydrostatic regional climate model coupled to a three-dimensional lake model.

scholarly journals Future snowfall in western and central Europe projected with a high-resolution regional climate model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (12) ◽  
pp. 4294-4299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hylke de Vries ◽  
Geert Lenderink ◽  
Erik van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Ensemble

scholarly journals Downscaling future wind hazard for SE London using the UKCP09 regional climate model ensemble

2012 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-156
Author(s):  
S Blenkinsop ◽  
Y Zhao ◽  
J Quinn ◽  
F Berryman ◽  
J Thornes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Wind Hazard

scholarly journals Evaluating the representation of Australian East Coast Lows in a regional climate model ensemble

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Di Luca ◽  
Jason Evans ◽  
Acacia Pepler ◽  
Lisa Alexander ◽  
Daniel Argüeso
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Ensemble

Köppen-Trewartha classification used to assess climate changes simulated by a regional climate model ensemble over South America

2016 ◽  
Vol 68 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 137-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Gallardo ◽  
V Gil ◽  
C Tejeda ◽  
E Sánchez ◽  
MA Gaertner
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Ensemble
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