scholarly journals Effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic Sea wave climate: application of the EOF method on multi-mission satellite altimetry data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Najafzadeh ◽  
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva ◽  
Tarmo Soomere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Najafzadeh ◽  
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva ◽  
Tarmo Soomere

Abstract Wave heights in the Baltic Sea in 1992–2015 have predominantly increased in the sea's western parts. The linear trends in the winter wave heights exhibit a prominent meridional pattern. Using the technique of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) applied to the multi-mission satellite altimetry data, we link a large part of this increase in the wave heights with the climatic indices of the Scandinavian mode, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation. The winter trends show a statistically significant negative correlation (correlation coefficient –0.47±0.19) with the Scandinavian pattern and a positive correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (0.31±0.22) and Arctic Oscillation (0.42±0.20). The meridional pattern is associated with more predominant north-westerly and westerly winds driven by the Scandinavian and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. All three climatic indices show a statistically significant time-variable correlation with Baltic Sea wave climate during the winter season. When the Scandinavian pattern's influence is strong, North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations' effect is low and vice versa. The results are backed up by simulations using synthetic data that demonstrate that the percentage of variance retrieved using EOF analysis from the satellite-derived wave measurements is directly related to the percentage of noise in the data and the retrieved spatial patterns are insensitive to the level of noise.





2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva ◽  
Tarmo Soomere

Abstract. The main properties of the climate of waves in the seasonally ice-covered Baltic Sea and its decadal changes since 1990 are estimated from satellite altimetry data. The data set of significant wave heights (SWH) from all existing ten satellites is cleaned and cross-validated against in situ buoy and echosounder measurements. Even though several satellite pairs (ENVISAT/JASON-1, SARAL/JASON-2, ERS-1/TOPEX) exhibit substantial mutual temporal drift, and calm situations are ignored, the overall picture is consistent. The annual mean SWH shows tentative increase 0.005 m/yr but higher quantiles behave in a cyclic manner with a timescale of 10–15 yr. Changes in the basin-wide average SWH have a strong meridional pattern: an increase in the central and western parts of the sea and decrease in the eastern part. This pattern is likely caused by a rotation of wind directions rather than by an increase in the wind speed.



2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Kudryavtseva

<p>Climate warming is expected to change the functioning of regional seas substantially. However, it is still an open question how the global climate processes will affect in the future the regional seas, their wave climate, changes in the storm surges and, consequently, the coastal erosion, flooding risks, and coastal communities. In this study, we perform a detailed analysis of the wave climate of the Baltic Sea and the Caspian Sea based on the multi-mission satellite altimetry data in 1990 – 2017. The dataset of significant wave heights (SWH) from ten satellites was cross-validated against regional in situ buoy and echosounder measurements. In the Caspian Sea, due to the limited availability of the in-situ measurements, the satellite data were validated with visual wave measurements. After correction for systematic differences, the visual observations showed excellent correspondence with monthly averaged satellite data with a typical root mean square difference of 0.06 m. Even though several satellite pairs (ENVISAT/JASON-1, SARAL/JASON-2, ERS-1/TOPEX) exhibit substantial mutual temporal drift, and calm wave conditions are ignored, the overall picture is very consistent. The averaged over the whole basin annual mean SWH in the Baltic Sea shows an increase of 0.005 m/yr but no significant trend is detected in the Caspian Sea.</p><p>Interestingly, in both Baltic and Caspian seas, changes in the average SWH exhibit a strong spatial pattern. In the Baltic Sea, a meridional pattern is detected: an increase in the central and western parts of the sea and a decrease in the eastern part. This pattern has a timescale of ~13 yr. We also found a faster-varying region in the Baltic Proper where trends in the wave heights experience abrupt changes with a timescale of 3 years and show a strong relation to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the Caspian Sea, the wave height decreased by 0.019 ± 0.007 m/yr in the eastern segment of the central basin and by 0.04 ± 0.04 m/yr in the western segment of the southern basin when the other parts showed an increase of wave heights. These changes can be explained by an increase in the frequency of westerly winds at the expense of southerly winds. Analysing the changes in the atmospheric forcing we found that there is a cyclic behaviour with a timescale of ~12 years which result in abrupt changes in the wave climate every 12 years, causing the trends in different regions to reverse its sign.</p><p>We demonstrate that the impact on the coast and coastal community is caused by a complex chain of events, starting from changes in the wind direction due to large-scale atmospheric variability and atmospheric teleconnections, which create abrupt shifts in the wave climate of regional seas. We discuss that regional seas have a different response to the changing climate compared to the open ocean condition, which can lead to accelerated coastal erosion and a higher risk of flooding.</p>



2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julius Oelsmann ◽  

<p>For sea level studies, coastal adaptation, and planning for future sea level scenarios, regional responses require regionally-tailored sea level information. Global sea level products from satellite altimeter missions are now available through the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Sea Level Project (SL_cci). However, these global datasets are not entirely appropriate for supporting regional actions. Particularly for the Baltic Sea region, complications such as coastal complexity and sea-ice restrain our ability to exploit radar altimetry data.</p><p>This presentation highlights the benefits and opportunities offered by such regionalised advances, through an examination by the ESA-funded Baltic SEAL project (http://balticseal.eu/). We present the challenges faced, and solutions implemented, to develop new dedicated along-track and gridded sea level datasets for Baltic Sea stakeholders, spanning the years 1995-2019. Advances in waveform classification and altimetry echo-fitting, expansion of echo-fitting to a wide range of altimetry missions (including Delay-Doppler altimeters), and Baltic-focused multi-mission cross calibration, enable all altimetry missions’ data to be integrated into a final gridded product.</p><p>This gridded product, and a range of altimetry datasets, offer new insights into the Baltic Sea’s mean sea level and its variability during 1995-2019. Here, we focus on the analysis of sea level trends in the region using both tide gauge and altimetry data. The Baltic SEAL absolute sea level trend at the coast better aligns with information from the in-situ stations, when compared to current global products. The rise in sea level is statistically significant in the region of study and higher in winter than in summer. A gradient of over 3 mm/yr in sea level rise is observed, with sea levels in the north and east of the basin rising more than in the south-west. Part of this gradient (about 1 mm/yr) is directly explained by a regression analysis of the wind contribution on the sea level time series. A sub-basin analysis comparing the northernmost part (Bay of Bothnia) with the south-west reveals that the differences in winter sea level anomalies are related to different phases of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (0.71 correlation coefficient). Sea level anomalies are higher in the Bay of Bothnia when winter wind forcing pushes waters through Ekman transport from the south-west towards east and north.</p><p>The study also demonstrates the maturity of enhanced satellite altimetry products to support local sea level studies in areas characterised by complex coastlines or sea-ice coverage. The processing chain used in this study can be exported to other regions, in particular to test the applicability in regions affected by larger ocean tides. We promote further exploitation and identification of further synergies with other efforts focused on relevant oceanic variables for societal applications.</p>



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