Prediction of TBM penetration rate based on Monte Carlo-BP neural network

Author(s):  
Meng Wei ◽  
Zelin Wang ◽  
Xiaoyu Wang ◽  
Jialuo Peng ◽  
Yu Song
Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 2059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Gao ◽  
Farong Han ◽  
Pingping Dong ◽  
Naixue Xiong ◽  
Ronghua Du

With the development of intelligent transportation system (ITS) and vehicle to X (V2X), the connected vehicle is capable of sensing a great deal of useful traffic information, such as queue length at intersections. Aiming to solve the problem of existing models’ complexity and information redundancy, this paper proposes a queue length sensing model based on V2X technology, which consists of two sub-models based on shockwave sensing and back propagation (BP) neural network sensing. First, the model obtains state information of the connected vehicles and analyzes the formation process of the queue, and then it calculates the velocity of the shockwave to predict the queue length of the subsequent unconnected vehicles. Then, the neural network is trained with historical connected vehicle data, and a sub-model based on the BP neural network is established to predict the real-time queue length. Finally, the final queue length at the intersection is determined by combining the sub-models by variable weight. Simulation results show that the sensing accuracy of the combined model is proportional to the penetration rate of connected vehicles, and sensing of queue length can be achieved even in low penetration rate environments. In mixed traffic environments of connected vehicles and unconnected vehicles, the queuing length sensing model proposed in this paper has higher performance than the probability distribution (PD) model when the penetration rate is low, and it has an almost equivalent performance with higher penetration rate while the penetration rate is not needed. The proposed sensing model is more applicable for mixed traffic scenarios with much looser conditions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 8823-8830
Author(s):  
Jiafeng Li ◽  
Hui Hu ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
Qian Jin ◽  
Tianhao Huang

Under the influence of COVID-19, the economic benefits of shale gas development are greatly affected. With the large-scale development and utilization of shale gas in China, it is increasingly important to assess the economic impact of shale gas development. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for predicting the production of shale gas reservoirs, and uses back propagation (BP) neural network to nonlinearly fit reservoir reconstruction data to obtain shale gas well production forecasting models. Experiments show that compared with the traditional BP neural network, the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of the prediction. There is a nonlinear correlation between reservoir reconstruction data and gas well production, which does not apply to traditional linear prediction methods


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