scholarly journals Surgical volume reduction and the announcement of triage during the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a cohort study using an interrupted time series analysis

Surgery Today ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Okuno ◽  
Daisuke Takada ◽  
Jung-ho Shin ◽  
Tetsuji Morishita ◽  
Hisashi Itoshima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Volume Reduction ◽  
Surgical Volume ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals Antimicrobial stewardship during the COVID-19 epidemic: population-based cohort study and interrupted time series analysis in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
pp. BJGP.2020.1051
Author(s):  
Emma Rezel-Potts ◽  
Veline L'Esperance ◽  
Martin Gullifiord
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Antimicrobial Stewardship ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Antibiotic Prescribing ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Tract Infections

Background. The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the context for antimicrobial stewardship in primary care. Aim: To assess the effect of the pandemic on antibiotic prescribing, accounting for changes in consultations for respiratory and urinary tract infections (RTIs/UTIs). Design and Setting: Population-based cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) (January 2017 to September 2020). Method: Interrupted time series analysis evaluated changes in antibiotic prescribing and RTI/UTI consultations adjusting for age, gender, season and secular trends. We assessed the proportion of COVID-19 episodes associated with antibiotic prescribing. Results: There were 253,655 registered patients in 2017 and 232,218 in 2020 with 559,461 antibiotic prescriptions, 216,110 RTI consultations and 36,402 UTI consultations. Compared to pre-pandemic months, March 2020 was associated with higher prescribing (adjusted rate ratio 1.13; 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.16). Prescribing fell below predicted rates between April and August 2020, reaching a minimum in May (0.73, 0.71 to 0.75). Pandemic months were associated with lower rates of RTI/UTI consultations, particularly in April for RTIs (0.23; 0.22 to 0.25). There were small reductions in the proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotic prescribed and no reduction for UTIs. Among 25,889 COVID-19 patients, 2,942 (11%) had antibiotics within a COVID-19 episode. Conclusion: Pandemic months were initially associated with increased antibiotic prescribing which then fell below expected levels during the national lockdown. Findings are reassuring that antibiotic stewardship priorities have not been neglected due to COVID-19. Research is required into the effects of reduced RTI/UTI consultations on incidence of serious bacterial infection.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 PANDEMIC ON SURGICAL VOLUME IN JAPAN: A COHORT STUDY USING ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Okuno ◽  
Daisuke Takada ◽  
Shin Jung-ho ◽  
Tetsuji Morishita ◽  
Hisashi Itoshima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Surgical Volume ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Case Volume ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Time Series Analyses

AbstractBackgroundInternationally, the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented challenges for surgical staff to minimise the exposure to COVID-19 or save medical resources without harmful outcomes for patients, in accordance with the statement of each surgical society. However, no research has empirically validated declines in Japanese surgical volume or compared decrease rates of surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic.Material and MethodsWe extracted 672,772 available cases of patients aged > 15 years who were discharged between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020. After categorisation of surgery, we calculated descriptive statistics to compare the year-over-year trend and conducted interrupted time series analysis to validate the decline.ResultsThe year-over-year trend of all eight surgical categories decreased from April 2020 and reached a minimum in May 2020 (May: abdominal, 68.4%; thoracic, 85.8%; genitourinary, 78.6%; cardiovascular, 90.8%; neurosurgical, 69.1%; orthopaedic, 62.4%; ophthalmologic, 52.0%; ear/nose/throat, 27.3%). Interrupted time series analysis showed no significant trends in oncological and critical benign surgeries.ConclusionWe demonstrated and validated a trend of reduction in surgical volume in Japan using administrative data applying interrupted time series analyses. Low priority surgeries, as categorised by the statement of each society, showed obvious and statistically significant declines in case volume during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

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