scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 PANDEMIC ON SURGICAL VOLUME IN JAPAN: A COHORT STUDY USING ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Okuno ◽  
Daisuke Takada ◽  
Shin Jung-ho ◽  
Tetsuji Morishita ◽  
Hisashi Itoshima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Surgical Volume ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Case Volume ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Time Series Analyses

AbstractBackgroundInternationally, the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented challenges for surgical staff to minimise the exposure to COVID-19 or save medical resources without harmful outcomes for patients, in accordance with the statement of each surgical society. However, no research has empirically validated declines in Japanese surgical volume or compared decrease rates of surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic.Material and MethodsWe extracted 672,772 available cases of patients aged > 15 years who were discharged between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020. After categorisation of surgery, we calculated descriptive statistics to compare the year-over-year trend and conducted interrupted time series analysis to validate the decline.ResultsThe year-over-year trend of all eight surgical categories decreased from April 2020 and reached a minimum in May 2020 (May: abdominal, 68.4%; thoracic, 85.8%; genitourinary, 78.6%; cardiovascular, 90.8%; neurosurgical, 69.1%; orthopaedic, 62.4%; ophthalmologic, 52.0%; ear/nose/throat, 27.3%). Interrupted time series analysis showed no significant trends in oncological and critical benign surgeries.ConclusionWe demonstrated and validated a trend of reduction in surgical volume in Japan using administrative data applying interrupted time series analyses. Low priority surgeries, as categorised by the statement of each society, showed obvious and statistically significant declines in case volume during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Impact of low and no alcohol beers on purchases of alcohol: interrupted time series analysis of British household shopping data, 2015–2018

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e036371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Anderson ◽  
Eva Jané Llopis ◽  
Amy O’Donnell ◽  
Jakob Manthey ◽  
Jürgen Rehm
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low Alcohol

ObjectiveTo assess the impact of new low and no alcohol beers and reformulated beers in Great Britain on household purchases of grams of alcohol.DesignInterrupted time series analysis.SettingPurchase data from Kantar Worldpanel’s household shopping panel for 2015–2018.Participants64 286 British households.InterventionsIntroduction of new no and low alcohol beers during 2017–2018 and reformulation of existing beers to contain less alcohol during 2018.Main outcome measuresAverage alcoholic strength of beer and number of grams of alcohol purchased by households.ResultsAs assessed by British household purchase data, 46 new low and no alcohol beer products were introduced during 2015–2018, with a step-jump in volume purchased occurring at the beginning of March 2017 (event 1). During 2015–2018, 33 beer products were reformulated to contain less alcohol, with a step-jump in volume purchased occurring during mid-March 2018 (event 2). Interrupted time series analyses found a combined associated impact of both events with relative reductions of alcohol by volume of beer between 1.2% and 2.3%; purchases of grams of alcohol within beer between 7.1% and 10.2%; and purchases of grams of alcohol as a whole between 2.6% and 3.9%. The reductions were greater for reformulation than for the introduction of new low and no alcohol products. Reductions were independently higher for younger age groups of shoppers and for households that bought the most alcohol.ConclusionsEven though the events were associated with significant beneficial changes, the volume of purchases of new low and no alcohol beer products (2.6% of the volume of all beers purchased during 2018) and of new reformulated beer products (6.9% of the volume of all beers purchased during 2018) was very small. This indicates that there are future opportunities to increase the volume of such products so as to reduce the harm done by alcohol.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

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