scholarly journals Land Use Modeling Predicts Divergent Patterns of Change Between Upper and Lower Elevations in a Subalpine Watershed of the Alps

Ecosystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolò Anselmetto ◽  
Emanuele Marco Sibona ◽  
Fabio Meloni ◽  
Luca Gagliardi ◽  
Massimo Bocca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Forest Dynamics ◽  
Landscape Patterns ◽  
Aerial Images ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Land Cover Maps

AbstractThe synergic influence of land use and climate change on future forest dynamics is hard to disentangle, especially in human-dominated forest ecosystems. Forest gain in mountain ecosystems often creates different spatial–temporal patterns between upper and lower elevation belts. We analyzed land cover dynamics over the past 50 years and predicted Business as Usual future changes on an inner subalpine watershed by using land cover maps, derived from five aerial images, and several topographic, ecological, and anthropogenic predictors. We analyzed historical landscape patterns through transition matrices and landscape metrics and predicted future forest ecosystem change by integrating multi-layer perceptron and Markov chain models for short-term (2050) and long-term (2100) timespans. Below the maximum timberline elevation of the year 1965, the dominant forest dynamic was a gap-filling process through secondary succession at the expense of open areas leading to an increase of landscape homogeneity. At upper elevations, the main observed dynamic was the colonization of unvegetated soil through primary succession and timberline upward shift, with an increasing speed over the last years. Future predictions suggest a saturation of open areas in the lower part of the watershed and stronger forest gain at upper elevations. Our research suggests an increasing role of climate change over the last years and on future forest dynamics at a landscape scale.

scholarly journals Key Challenges for Land Use Planning and Its Environmental Assessments in the Abuja City-Region, Nigeria

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Evidence Chinedu Enoguanbhor ◽  
Florian Gollnow ◽  
Blake Byron Walker ◽  
Jonas Ostergaard Nielsen ◽  
Tobia Lakes
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Environmental Assessment ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Environmental Assessments ◽  
City Regions ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Land Cover Maps

Land use planning as strategic instruments to guide urban dynamics faces particular challenges in the Global South, including Sub-Saharan Africa, where urgent interventions are required to improve urban and environmental sustainability. This study investigated and identified key challenges of land use planning and its environmental assessments to improve the urban and environmental sustainability of city-regions. In doing so, we combined expert interviews and questionnaires with spatial analyses of urban and regional land use plans, as well as current and future urban land cover maps derived from Geographic Information Systems and remote sensing. By overlaying and contrasting land use plans and land cover maps, we investigated spatial inconsistencies between urban and regional plans and the associated urban land dynamics and used expert surveys to identify the causes of such inconsistencies. We furthermore identified and interrogated key challenges facing land use planning, including its environmental assessment procedures, and explored means for overcoming these barriers to rapid, yet environmentally sound urban growth. The results illuminated multiple inconsistencies (e.g., spatial conflicts) between urban and regional plans, most prominently stemming from conflicts in administrative boundaries and a lack of interdepartmental coordination. Key findings identified a lack of Strategic Environmental Assessment and inadequate implementation of land use plans caused by e.g., insufficient funding, lack of political will, political interference, corruption as challenges facing land use planning strategies for urban and environmental sustainability. The baseline information provided in this study is crucial to improve strategic planning and urban/environmental sustainability of city-regions in Sub-Saharan Africa and across the Global South, where land use planning faces similar challenges to address haphazard urban expansion patterns.

scholarly journals How Can We Represent Seasonal Land Use Dynamics in SWAT and SWAT+ Models for African Cultivated Catchments?

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1541
Author(s):  
Albert Nkwasa ◽  
Celray James Chawanda ◽  
Anna Msigwa ◽  
Hans C. Komakech ◽  
Boud Verbeiren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Cropping Seasons ◽  
Decision Tables ◽  
Land Cover Maps

In SWAT and SWAT+ models, the variations in hydrological processes are represented by Hydrological Response Units (HRUs). In the default models, agricultural land cover is represented by a single growing cycle. However, agricultural land use, especially in African cultivated catchments, typically consists of several cropping seasons, following dry and wet seasonal patterns, and are hence incorrectly represented in SWAT and SWAT+ default models. In this paper, we propose a procedure to incorporate agricultural seasonal land-use dynamics by (1) mapping land-use trajectories instead of static land-cover maps and (2) linking these trajectories to agricultural management settings. This approach was tested in SWAT and SWAT+ models of Usa catchment in Tanzania that is intensively cultivated by implementing dominant dynamic trajectories. Our results were evaluated with remote-sensing observations for Leaf Area Index (LAI), which showed that a single growing cycle did not well represent vegetation dynamics. A better agreement was obtained after implementing seasonal land-use dynamics for cultivated HRUs. It was concluded that the representation of seasonal land-use dynamics through trajectory implementation can lead to improved temporal patterns of LAI in default models. The SWAT+ model had higher flexibility in representing agricultural practices, using decision tables, and by being able to represent mixed cropping cultivations.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Geofrey Gabiri ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Kristian Näschen ◽  
Constanze Leemhuis ◽  
Roderick van der Linden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Inland Valley ◽  
Headwater Catchment

The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976–2005) and future climate (2021–2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase.

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