Forecasting Realized Volatility of Bitcoin: The Role of the Trade War

We focused our attention on the causes of the current trade war between the United States and China. The article analyzes the influence of electoral processes in the USA on the choice between free trade and protectionism. The relationship between China’s accession to the WTO, mutually beneficial cooperation with the United States, and trends in the trade balance between major trading partners have been determined. The article illustrates the main mutual claims between the United States and China, which led to the outbreak of «the largest trade war in economic history». We determined the main stages of the conduct of «military operations» and characterized the directions of the conflict escalation. The attention is focused on the losses in the trade war; the main beneficiaries from the «trade disagreements» were identified. We proposed an alternative opinion on the real consequences of the trade war for the warring parties. The article studies the impact of trade wars on world GDP and the national economies of the largest countries of the world. Attention is focused on the existence of «phantom trade» for finding the way out of sanctions and tariffs. The role of Ukrainian business in trade wars is examined in detail. We analyzed the main trade wars Ukrainian enterprises are involved in and possible results for the business. The article gives the author’s vision of the impact of the trade war on the trade balance between Ukraine and the key participants in the trade war: the United States and China. We concluded which branches of the Ukrainian industry are in priority for developing trade relations with China. The article highlights the main barriers to the development of trade with the United States and the reasons for the decline in the export of Ukrainian goods. We predicted how the improvement in relations between the United States and China will affect the role of Ukrainian business in the context of world trade wars.

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The Role of the WTO in the Development of International Trade: History, Problems and Perspectives of International Trade Law. Doctoral Thesis

10.25143/prom-rsu_2021-15_dt ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Giga Abuseridze ◽

Keyword(s):

International Trade ◽

Developing Country ◽

Dispute Settlement ◽

Trade Agreements ◽

Doctoral Thesis ◽

Trade Law ◽

International Trade Law ◽

Trade War ◽

Present Thesis

The subject of this doctoral thesis is the Role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the Development of International Trade: History, Problems and Perspectives of International Trade law. The purpose of the present thesis is to explore the role of the WTO in the development of international trade, to research the possibilities of resolving trade disputes within the framework of the WTO law, to identify strengths and weaknesses of Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU), to determine the status of a developing country and elaborate recommendations for the improvement of WTO legislation in compliance with fair trade. The present doctoral thesis consists of four chapters: The first chapter reviews international trade and main aspects of WTO legislation, analyses rules for international trade, defines strategy for WTO trade policy and the principles of legal pluralism and inter-legality, establishes correlation of norms of international law examines trade tensions and elaborates proposals for their solution. The second chapter, attempting to determine developing country status in the WTO, explores the categorization of a developing country by the World Bank, United Nations and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Experience of developing countries with enforcement of DSU rulings is analysed. Furthermore, application of more consultations and mediation at DSU is suggested as it would turn Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) into a more practical tool. This chapter also focuses on political stability and trade agreements as well as national security and cybersecurity which ensure the simplicity, stability and neutrality of trade agreements. The third chapter examines the peculiarities of legal status and overviews WTO disputes involving subsidies in the renewable energy sector that follows the WTO agenda. The fourth chapter reviews the trade policies and practices of Georgia as well as Georgia-WTO relationship in the historical context. The author retrospects trade relations between Georgia and Russia which, as the author qualifies, eventually developed into the “trade war” with a very clear political connotation and precedential character. This is the only and first attempt ever to analyse this case and to give it the qualification of “the trade war”. The present thesis consists of 196 pages and includes introduction, four chapters, conclusions, suggestions and interviews.

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The Role of the WTO in the Development of International Trade: History, Problems and Perspectives of International Trade Law. Summary of the Doctoral Thesis

10.25143/prom-rsu_2021-15_dts ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Giga Abuseridze ◽

Keyword(s):

International Trade ◽

Developing Country ◽

Dispute Settlement ◽

Trade Agreements ◽

Doctoral Thesis ◽

Trade Law ◽

International Trade Law ◽

Trade War ◽

Present Thesis

The subject of this doctoral thesis is the Role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the Development of International Trade: History, Problems and Perspectives of International Trade law. The purpose of the present thesis is to explore the role of the WTO in the development of international trade, to research the possibilities of resolving trade disputes within the framework of the WTO law, to identify strengths and weaknesses of Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU), to determine the status of a developing country and elaborate recommendations for the improvement of WTO legislation in compliance with fair trade. The present doctoral thesis consists of four chapters: The first chapter reviews international trade and main aspects of WTO legislation, analyses rules for international trade, defines strategy for WTO trade policy and the principles of legal pluralism and inter-legality, establishes correlation of norms of international law examines trade tensions and elaborates proposals for their solution. The second chapter, attempting to determine developing country status in the WTO, explores the categorization of a developing country by the World Bank, United Nations and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Experience of developing countries with enforcement of DSU rulings is analysed. Furthermore, application of more consultations and mediation at DSU is suggested as it would turn Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) into a more practical tool. This chapter also focuses on political stability and trade agreements as well as national security and cybersecurity which ensure the simplicity, stability and neutrality of trade agreements. The third chapter examines the peculiarities of legal status and overviews WTO disputes involving subsidies in the renewable energy sector that follows the WTO agenda. The fourth chapter reviews the trade policies and practices of Georgia as well as Georgia-WTO relationship in the historical context. The author retrospects trade relations between Georgia and Russia which, as the author qualifies, eventually developed into the “trade war” with a very clear political connotation and precedential character. This is the only and first attempt ever to analyse this case and to give it the qualification of “the trade war”. The present thesis consists of 196 pages and includes introduction, four chapters, conclusions, suggestions and interviews.

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The role of economic uncertainty in forecasting exchange rate returns and realized volatility: Evidence from quantile predictive regressions

Journal of Forecasting ◽

10.1002/for.2539 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 37 (7) ◽

pp. 705-719 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Christina Christou ◽

Rangan Gupta ◽

Christis Hassapis ◽

Tahir Suleman

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Realized Volatility ◽

Economic Uncertainty ◽

Predictive Regressions

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El Niño and forecastability of oil-price realized volatility

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-021-03569-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 144 (3-4) ◽

pp. 1173-1180

Author(s):

Elie Bouri ◽

Rangan Gupta ◽

Christian Pierdzioch ◽

Afees A. Salisu

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

Southern Oscillation Index ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Realized Volatility ◽

Oil Price ◽

Out Of Sample ◽

Asymmetric Loss Function ◽

Standard Tests

AbstractWe forecast monthly realized volatility (RV) of the oil price based on an extended heterogenous autoregressive (HAR)-RV model that incorporates the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Based on the period covering 1986 January to 2020 December and studying various rolling-estimation windows and forecast horizons, we find that the EQSOI has predictive value for oil-price RV particularly at forecast horizons from 2 to 4 years, and for rolling-estimation windows of length 4 to 6 years. We show that this result holds not only based on standard tests of out-of-sample predictability, but also under an asymmetric loss function.

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