Modeling the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the rangeland species Gymnocarpus decander Forssk (case study: Arid region of southeastern Iran)

Computational modeling techniques for species geographic distribution are critical to support the task of identifying areas with high risk of loss of Biodiversity. These tools can assist in the conservation of Biodiversity, in planning the use of non-inhabited regions, in estimating the risk of invasive species, in the proposed reintroduction programs for species and even in planning the protecting endangered species. Furthermore, such techniques can help to understand the effects of climate change and other changes in the geographical distribution of species. This chapter presents concepts related to the species distribution modeling and algorithms based on Neural Networks and Maximum Entropy as alternatives for modeling of species distribution. The algorithms were integrated into the open source tool called openModeller used by biologists and other researchers in this area. A case study of modeling the distribution of babaçu (Orbignya phalerata) in the Piauí State – Brazil is presented, evaluating the potential distribution of this species used to produce bioenergy. Fifty models were generated and merged the ten models with best accuracy for each algorithm. The results show that the models obtained by both are consistent. The models obtained with Maximum Entropy seem to reflect best the reality, considering the occurrence pattern of babaçu as a secondary species.

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Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

Environmental Management ◽

10.1007/s00267-013-0018-8 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 51 (4) ◽

pp. 926-938 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Changchun Xu ◽

Yaning Chen ◽

Yapeng Chen ◽

Ruifeng Zhao ◽

Hui Ding

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Central Asia ◽

River Basin ◽

Human Activities ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Arid Region ◽

Tarim River ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

The Tarim River Basin

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Tidal flood area mapping in the face of climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (11) ◽

pp. 3353-3366

Author(s):

Paulo Victor N. Araújo ◽

Venerando E. Amaro ◽

Leonlene S. Aguiar ◽

Caio C. Lima ◽

Alexandre B. Lopes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Arid Region ◽

Risk Mapping ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Management Actions ◽

The Face ◽

Semi Arid Region ◽

Semi Arid

Abstract. Previous studies on tidal flood mapping are mostly through continental- and/or global-scale approaches. Moreover, the few works on local-scale perception are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and North America. Here, we present a case study approaching a tidal flood risk mapping application in the face of climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study site is an estuarine cut in the Brazilian semi-arid region, covering part of two state conservation units, which has been suffering severe consequences from tidal flooding in recent years. In this case study, we used high-geodetic-precision data (lidar DEM), together with robust tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios. We found that approximately 327.60 km2 of the estuary is under tidal flood risk and in need of mitigation measures. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions, as well as a model for applying risk mapping in other coastal areas.

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