The Influence of Climate Change on Three Dominant Alpine Species under Different Scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.

Comparison of Intra-Annual Xylem and Phloem Formation of Picea crassifolia Stands at Two Latitudes in Northwest China

Understanding the changes in xylem and phloem formation of trees and their relationship along latitudes are important for evaluating and predicting how fragile forests may respond to climate change; however, corresponding studies are still relatively scarce. This study investigated the intra-annual dynamics of xylem and phloem formation of Picea crassifolia and their relationship at two latitudes of arid and semi-arid forests in China. The results showed that both xylem and phloem formation varied at different latitudes. Xylem formation at the low-latitude site (Luoshan) started two weeks earlier than that at the high-latitude site (Helanshan) but ended one week later, resulting in an extended growing season at the low-latitude site. Phloem formation preceded cambium activity and xylogenesis at both sites by 24.6 days in Luoshan, which had warmer conditions, and by 17.3 days in Helanshan. In Luoshan, compared to Helanshan, there occurred significantly more enlarging and wall thickening cells, during (relatively wet) June–August, but significantly fewer enlarging and wall thickening cells as well as total xylem cells, during (relatively dry) April–May. Sample trees produced significantly fewer early phloem cells during the early growing season (April–May) in Luoshan, but generated significantly more late phloem cells during the late growing season in Helanshan. Additionally, different trade-offs between xylem and phloem formation were observed at different sites. The longer duration of early phloem formation might have shortened the duration of xylem lignification in Helanshan; in Luoshan, the date that late phloem reached its maximum growth rate was significantly positively correlated with the date when xylem lignification ended. The results revealed the plasticity of xylem and phloem formation under changing environmental conditions and a complex and site-specific relationship between xylem and phloem formation. These findings could help us better understand and predict the future growth of arid and semi-arid forests in China in response to climate change.

Radial Growth Response of Picea crassifolia to Climatic Conditions in a Dryland Forest Ecosystem in Northwest China

As an important barrier against desert invasion in Northwest China, Helan Mountains (HL), Luoshan Mountains (LS) and their natural forests have an extremely important ecological status. It is of great significance to study the relationship between forest growth and climate in this region under the background of global change. At present, relevant research mostly focuses on the Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.), and little is known about how Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) responds to climate change. To investigate the potential relationships between radial growth of P. crassifolia and climatic conditions in Ningxia, China, we collected tree-ring samples from P. crassifolia growing in the HL and LS and then established the standard tree-ring width chronologies for the two sites. Correlation analysis together with multivariate linear regression and relative contribution analyses were used, and results showed that radial growth in the HL was determined by the precipitation in the previous September, by the standardized evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the current March and June, and by the maximum air temperature in the current September. The maximum air temperature in the current September contributed the most (0.348) to the radial growth in the HL. In the LS, radial growth was determined by the precipitation in the previous September and in the current March and by the minimum air temperature in the current July. The factor that made the most contribution was the precipitation in the current March (0.489). Our results suggested that in the wetting and warming future, growth of P. crassifolia in the HL will increase while that in the LS needs further investigation. Our results also provide a basis for predicting how P. crassifolia in northwest China will grow under the background of future climate change and provide a reference for formulating relevant management measures to achieve ecological protection and sustainable development policies.

Elevation Alone Alters Leaf N and Leaf C to N Ratio of Picea crassifolia Kom. in China’s Qilian Mountains

Leaf stoichiometry of plants can respond to variation in environments such as elevation ranging from low to high and success in establishing itself in a given montane ecosystem. An evaluation of the leaf stoichiometry of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) growing at different elevations (2400 m, 2600 m, 2800 m, 3000 m, and 3200 m) in eastern China’s Qilian Mountains, showed that leaf carbon (LC) and leaf phosphorus (LP) were similar among elevations, with ranges of 502.76–518.02 g·kg−1, and 1.00–1.43 g·kg−1, respectively. Leaf nitrogen (LN) varied with changes of elevation, with a maxima of 12.82 g·kg−1 at 2600 m and a minima of 10.74 g·kg−1 at 2800 m. The LC:LN under 2400 m and 2600 m was lower than that under other elevations, while LC:LP and LN:LP were not different among these elevations. Except for LN and LC:LN, P. crassifolia’s other leaf stoichiometries remained relatively stable across elevations, partly supporting the homeostasis hypothesis. Variations in leaf stoichiometry across elevations were mainly linked to mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, soil pH, and the soil organic C to soil total N ratio. P. crassifolia growth within the study area was more susceptible to P limitation.

Comparison of the Radial Growth Response of Picea crassifolia to Climate Change in Different Regions of the Central and Eastern Qilian Mountains

It is important to explore the responses of radial tree growth in different regions to understand growth patterns and to enhance forest management and protection with climate change. We constructed tree ring width chronologies of Picea crassifolia from different regions of the Qilian Mountains of northwest China. We used Pearson correlation and moving correlation to analyze the main climate factors limiting radial growth of trees and the temporal stability of the growth–climate relationship, while spatial correlation is the result of further testing the first two terms in space. The conclusions were as follows: (1) Radial growth had different trends, showing an increasing followed by a decreasing trend in the central region, a continuously increasing trend in the eastern region, and a gradually decreasing trend in the isolated mountain. (2) Radial tree growth in the central region and isolated mountains was constrained by drought stress, and tree growth in the central region was significantly negatively correlated with growing season temperature. Isolated mountains showed a significant negative correlation with mean minimum of growing season and a significant positive correlation with total precipitation. (3) Temporal dynamic responses of radial growth in the central region to the temperatures and SPEI (the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) in the growing season were unstable, the isolated mountains to total precipitation was unstable, and that to SPEI was stable. The results of this study suggest that scientific management and maintenance plans of the forest ecosystem should be developed according to the response and growth patterns of the Qinghai spruce to climate change in different regions of the Qilian Mountains.

A Tree-Ring-Based Precipitation Reconstruction since 1760 CE from Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China

Hydroclimatic conditions and related water resources change in the Tibetan Plateau is one of the main concerns for future sustainable development in China. This study presents a 254-year precipitation reconstruction from August of the previous year to June of the current year for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau based on tree-ring width data of tree-ring cores of Picea crassifolia from three sampling sites. The precipitation reconstruction explained 51.4% of the variance in instrumental precipitation during the calibration period 1958–2013. Dry periods with precipitation below the 254-year average value occurred during 1848–1865, 1873–1887, 1898–1923, and 1989–2003, and wet periods (precipitation above the mean) occurred during 1769–1785, 1798–1833, 1924–1938, 1957–1968, and 2004–2013. Spatial correlation analyses with the precipitation gridded dataset showed that our reconstruction contains some strong regional-scale precipitation signals for the upper Yellow River Basin. Our precipitation reconstruction also agreed in general with other dendroclimatic precipitation reconstructions from surrounding regions. In addition, reconstructed precipitation changes were consistent with the streamflow variation of the Yellow River.