Online Multi-step Ahead Prediction of Time-Varying Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices via Adaptive Neurofuzzy Modeling and Recursive Spectral Analysis

Solar Physics ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 272 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoud Mirmomeni ◽  
Caro Lucas ◽  
Babak Nadjar Araabi ◽  
Behzad Moshiri ◽  
Mohammad Reza Bidar
1972 ◽  
Vol 98 (6) ◽  
pp. 1606-1608
Author(s):  
Mehmet A. Tayfun ◽  
Cheng Y. Yang

1964 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 1213-1232
Author(s):  
I. K. McIvor

Abstract Three different methods of spectral analysis are compared on the basis of a common interpretation in terms of time-varying Fourier analysis. The spectra obtained by these methods for a particular seismic event are given and differences in the results are resolved.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (12) ◽  
pp. 1159-1164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pieter Benjamin Kotzé

Abstract. In this paper we use wavelets and Lomb–Scargle spectral analysis techniques to investigate the changing pattern of the different harmonics of the 27-day solar rotation period of the AE (auroral electrojet) index during various phases of different solar cycles between 1960 and 2014. Previous investigations have revealed that the solar minimum of cycles 23–24 exhibited strong 13.5- and 9.0-day recurrence in geomagnetic data in comparison to the usual dominant 27.0-day synodic solar rotation period. Daily mean AE indices are utilized to show how several harmonics of the 27-day recurrent period change during every solar cycle subject to a 95 % confidence rule by performing a wavelet analysis of each individual year's AE indices. Results show that particularly during the solar minimum of 23–24 during 2008 the 27-day period is no longer detectable above the 95 % confidence level. During this interval geomagnetic activity is now dominated by the second (13.5-day) and third (9.0-day) harmonics. A Pearson correlation analysis between AE and various spherical harmonic coefficients describing the solar magnetic field during each Carrington rotation period confirms that the solar dynamo has been dominated by an unusual combination of sectorial harmonic structure during 23–24, which can be responsible for the observed anomalously low solar activity. These findings clearly show that, during the unusual low-activity interval of 2008, auroral geomagnetic activity was predominantly driven by high-speed solar wind streams originating from multiple low-latitude coronal holes distributed at regular solar longitude intervals.


2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 493-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Nusinov ◽  
N. M. Rudneva ◽  
E. A. Ginzburg ◽  
L. A. Dremukhina

2014 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 74-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janison R. de Carvalho ◽  
Carlos A. Duque ◽  
Marcelo A.A. Lima ◽  
Denis V. Coury ◽  
Paulo F. Ribeiro

Author(s):  
Toshio Iseki

The time varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVVAR) modeling is applied to the cross-spectral analysis of non-stationary ship motion data. Introducing the instantaneous response, a vector autoregressive model can be reduced to simple time varying coefficient autoregressive (TVAR) models for each ship motion and the required CPU time is effectively reduced. The TVVAR model and stochastic perturbed difference equations are transformed into a state space model. The vector-valued unknown coefficients can be evaluated and the instantaneous cross spectra of ship motions can be calculated at every moment. The results showed good agreements with one of the TVAR modeling and also with the stationary autoregressive (SAR) modeling analysis under stationary conditions. Furthermore, the instantaneous relative noise contribution was also estimated using the TVVAR coefficients and illustrated how the structure of a spectrum changed according to the ship manoeuvres for the first time. Optimum order of the model and Akaike’s information criterion were also examined for several changes of parameters. Moreover, it is confirmed that the TVVAR modeling can estimate the instantaneous cross spectra and relative noise contribution of ship motions even under non-stationary conditions.


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