scholarly journals Gold and oil prices: abnormal returns, momentum and contrarian effects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Alex Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
Price Effects ◽  
Time Gap ◽  
Abnormal Profits ◽  
Trading Simulation ◽  
Specific Timing

AbstractThis paper explores price (momentum and contrarian) effects and their timing parameters on the days characterised by abnormal returns and the following ones in two commodity markets. Specifically, using daily gold and oil price data over the period 01.01.2009–31.03.2020 the following hypotheses are tested: (H1) there is a time gap between the detection of an abnormal return day and the end of that day, (H2) there are price effects on the day after abnormal returns occur; (H3) price effects after 1-day abnormal returns have identifiable timing parameters; (H4) the detected timing parameters can be used to “beat the market”. For these purposes average analysis, t tests, CAR and trading simulation approaches are used. The main results can be summarised as follows. Prices tend to move in the direction of abnormal returns till the end of the day when these occur. The presence of abnormal returns can usually be detected before the end of the day by estimating specific timing parameters, and a momentum effect can be detected. On the following day two different price patterns are detected: a momentum effect for oil prices and a contrarian effect for gold prices, respectively. These effects are limited in time, and the corresponding timing parameters are estimated. Trading simulations show that these effects can be exploited to generate abnormal profits with an appropriate calibration of the timing parameters.

scholarly journals Momentum and contrarian effects in the Ukrainian stock market: case of daily overreactions

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-34
Author(s):  
Alex Plastun ◽  
Nataliya Strochenko ◽  
Olga Zhmaylova ◽  
Liudmyla Sliusareva ◽  
Sergiy Bashlay
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
Overreaction Hypothesis ◽  
Price Patterns ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
Trading Simulation

This paper examines momentum and contrarian effects in the Ukrainian stock market after one-day abnormal returns. To do this, UX futures data over the period 2010–2018 are used. The following hypotheses are tested: H1) hourly returns on overreaction days differ from hourly returns on normal days, H2) there are price patterns on overreaction days, and H3) to test these hypotheses, visual inspection and average analysis are used, as well as t-tests, cumulative abnormal returns, and trading simulation approaches. The results suggest that there are statistically significant differences between intraday dynamics during the usual days and the overreactions day. There is a strong momentum effect present on the day of overreaction: prices tend to change only in the direction of the overreaction during the whole day. The fact of the overreaction becomes clear after 13:00-14:00. This gives a lot of time to explore the momentum effect in the day of overreaction. On the day after the overreaction, prices tend to go in the opposite direction: contrarian pattern is detected, which is in line with the overreaction hypothesis. Based on detected price patterns, rules of trading and trading strategies for the Ukrainian stock market are developed. Momentum Strategy (based on price patterns on the day of overreaction) generates several successful trades; close to with 90%, and their number being is profitable (trading results differ from the random ones – confirmed by t-tests). Contrarian Strategy (based on price patterns on the day after the overreaction) demonstrates low efficiency, and results do not differ from random trading.

scholarly journals Daily abnormal returns and price effects in the “passion investments” market

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-149
Author(s):  
Alex Plastun ◽  
Ahniia Havrylina ◽  
Liudmyla Sliusareva ◽  
Nataliya Strochenko ◽  
Olga Zhmaylova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Support ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Price Effects ◽  
Price Patterns ◽  
Extreme Returns

This paper explores price effects in the “passion investments” market after days with abnormal returns. To do this, daily prices for stamps and diamonds over the periods 1999–2021 and 1989–2021 are analyzed. The following hypothesis is tested: One-day abnormal returns create stable patterns in price behavior on the next day. Statistic tests (t-test, ANOVA, Mann–Whitney U test, modified cumulative abnormal returns approach, regression analysis with dummy variables) confirm the presence of price patterns related to extreme returns: price fluctuations on the day after extreme returns are higher than returns on “normal” days. On the days after positive abnormal returns, the momentum effect is detected. Contrarian effect is typical for the days after negative abnormal returns. A trading strategy based on detected price effects showed the presence of exploitable profit opportunities. Results of this paper provide additional pieces of evidence in favor of inconsistencies between the efficient market hypothesis and practice and can be used by traders to generate extra profits in the “passion investments” market. Acknowledgment The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (0121U100473).

scholarly journals Australian Stock Exchange and sub-variants of price momentum strategies

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-235
Author(s):  
Abdullah Ejaz ◽  
Petr Polak
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
Return Behavior

The aim of this study is to examine the sub-variants of price momentum strategies. The paper recommends which sub-variants post above average returns for Australian Stock Exchange. It also analyzes the return behavior of short-term momentum effect among sub-variants of price momentum strategies. It has been found that monthly price momentum strategies result in above average abnormal returns, whereas weekly price momentum strategies should be used in combination with monthly price momentum strategies. Trading volume-based momentum investment strategies should not be used at all.

Are Indian Investors Return Chasers? An Anatomy of their Trading Behavior

GIS Business ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-44
Author(s):  
Martin Bernard ◽  
Malabika Deo
Keyword(s):  
Equity Returns ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Monthly Return ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Momentum has remained an unanswered anomaly in finance literature. Researchers have pointed out two arguments, whether the source of prior return anomalies are rational or behavioral. In this paper, we examined return chasing tendency investors and the profitability of probable price momentum strategy in Indian equity market using the monthly return data of equities represented in BSE-500 index encompassing the time period from July 2004 to Jun 2014. Study is an attempt to analyze momentum effect before, during and after the financial crisis of 2007–2009 to check whether investors continue to follow the same strategy during crisis or their behavior undergoes any change. Also study examined the adequacy of rational CAPM models to explain momentum profits. The result evidenced a strong presence of economically and statistically significant momentum profit in Indian stock market equity returns. Therefore return chasing tendency of Indian investors is found to be persistent in the intermediate horizon in Indian context. Closer observation of the results reveals that, Indian investors are winners chasers rather than investor in past losers. Study also confirmed that investors sentiments are volatile according to general market environment and inadequacy of rationalist equilibrium model to explain momentum profits.

scholarly journals January effect: 200 years of evolution in the us stock market

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Alex Plastun ◽  
Vyacheslav Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Comprehensive Investigation ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
Trading Simulation ◽  
Student’S T Test

This paper is a comprehensive investigation of the January Effect evolution in the US stock market over the period 1791–2015. It employs various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test) and a trading simulation approach to analyze the evolution of this anomaly. The results suggest that January effect during the XVIII–XXI century passed the way from rise to fall. The rise of the January Effect starts in the end of the XIX century and this anomaly mostly disappeared in middle of the XX century. Nowadays the January Effect is not present in the US stock market, but even today January stays one of the best months for purchases in the US stock market.

scholarly journals Exploring price gap anomaly in the Ukrainian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Plastun ◽  
Inna Makarenko ◽  
Lyudmila Khomutenko ◽  
Svitlana Shcherbak ◽  
Olha Tryfonova
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Price Patterns ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Trading Simulation

This paper analyzes price gaps in the Ukrainian stock market for the case of UX index over the period 2009–2018. Using different statistical tests (Student’s t-tests, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test) and regression analysis with dummy variables, as well as modified cumulative approach and trading simulation, the authors test a number of hypotheses searching for price patterns and abnormal market behavior related to price gaps: there is seasonality in price gaps (H1); price gaps generate statistical anomalies in the Ukrainian stock market (H2); upward gaps generate price patterns in the Ukrainian stock market (H3) and downward gaps generate price patterns in the Ukrainian stock market (H4). Overall results are consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: there is no seasonality in price gaps and in most cases there is no evidences of price patterns or abnormal price behavior after the gaps in the Ukrainian stock market. Nevertheless, the authors find very strong and convincing evidences in favor of momentum effect on the days of negative gaps. These observations are confirmed by trading simulations: trading strategy based on detected price pattern generates profits and demonstrates overall efficiency, which is against the market efficiency. These results can be interesting both for academicians (further evidences against market efficiency) and practitioners (real and effective trading strategy to generate profits in the Ukrainian market market).

scholarly journals Evolution of Price Effects After One-Day of Abnormal Returns in the US Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Plastun ◽  
Xolani Sibande ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Mark E. Wohar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Price Effects ◽  
The Us

Decoupling stock price momentum from accounting fundamentals

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 519-541
Author(s):  
Irfan Safdar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Complete Understanding ◽  
Delayed Reaction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Term Performance

Purpose What explains patterns in stock prices is an important question. One such pattern, price momentum, is a well-known capital markets anomaly where recent stock price performance appears to continue into the future. This momentum is frequently thought to reflect delayed reaction by investors to unspecified information (i.e. underreaction). This study aims to provide a useful insight regarding momentum: potential mispricing related to accounting fundamentals appears to conceal longer-term reversals in price momentum. Controlling for these fundamentals reveals that price momentum reverses, indicating that investor overreaction is a potentially important source of stock price momentum. The evidence presented in this study emphasizes the importance of decoupling momentum and accounting fundamentals to achieve a more complete understanding of what explains stock price momentum. Design/methodology/approach This study explores this question by examining the longer-term performance of momentum stocks in the US market after decoupling it from performance related to accounting fundamentals using returns to fundamentals-based factors as controls in time series regressions. Findings This study finds evidence of clear reversals in the remaining price momentum. These reversals provide a new insight into the momentum effect because they imply that the component of price momentum not traceable to accounting fundamentals reflects investor overreaction rather than underreaction. Originality/value The findings indicate that the underlying nature of the information driving price movements is important to achieving a complete understanding of what explains price momentum. To the best of the author’s knowledge, no other study has examined the behavior of stock price momentum while controlling for accounting fundamentals.

scholarly journals Daily abnormal price changes and trading strategies in the FOREX

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-222
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Alex Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Inefficiency ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Abnormal Profits ◽  
New Evidence

PurposeThis paper explores abnormal price changes in the FOREX by using both daily and intraday data on the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURJPY exchange rates over the period 01.01.2008–31.12.2018.Design/methodology/approachIt applies a dynamic trigger approach to detect abnormal price changes and then various statistical methods, including cumulative abnormal returns analysis, to test the following hypotheses: the intraday behaviour of hourly returns on overreaction days is different from that on normal days (H1), there are detectable patterns in intraday price dynamics on days with abnormal price changes (H2) and on the following days (H3).FindingsThe results suggest that there are statistically significant differences between intraday dynamics on days with abnormal price changes and normal days respectively; also, prices tend to change in the direction of the abnormal change during that day, but move in the opposite direction on the following day. Finally, there exist trading strategies that generate abnormal profits by exploiting the detected anomalies, which can be seen as evidence of market inefficiency.Originality/valueNew evidence on abnormal price changes and related trading strategies in the FOREX.

scholarly journals The CAC 40 Index’s Reaction to Terrorist Attacks: The Case of Charlie Hebdo

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-72
Author(s):  
Khoury Rim El
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Abnormal Profits ◽  
Event Study Methodology ◽  
Charlie Hebdo

Abstract Over the last decades, terrorism has become a global phenomenon to which every society is exposed from time to time. Terrorist attacks can have many economic consequences that may affect a number of sectors, including the capital market. The main goal of this paper is to examine the reaction of the CAC40 index to one terrorist attack, mainly “Charlie Hebdo” using an event study methodology. By calculating the abnormal returns and the cumulative abnormal returns in the event period, the results obtained show no significant abnormal returns on the day of the terrorist attack suggesting that the market had directly absorbed the effect of the attack. Thus, the findings suggest that the French market is semi-strong efficient. Investors can rely neither on past information nor on publicly available information to make abnormal profits.

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