Dynamic downscaling of near-surface air temperature at the basin scale using WRF-a case study in the Heihe River Basin, China

Ecosystem services are the benefit human populations derive directly and indirectly from the natural environment. They suffer from both the human intervention, like land use zoning change, and natural intervention, like the climate change. Under the background of climate change, regulation services of ecosystem could be strengthened under proper land use zoning policy to mitigate the climate change. In this paper, a case study was conducted in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin to assess the ecosystem services conservation zoning under the change of land use associated with climate variations. The research results show the spatial impact of land use zoning on ecosystem services in the study area which are significant reference for the spatial optimization of land use zoning in preserving the key ecosystem services to mitigate the climate change. The research contributes to the growing literature in finely characterizing the ecosystem services zones altered by land use change to alleviate the impact of climate change, as there is no such systematic ecosystem zoning method before.

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Water demand management: A case study of the Heihe River Basin in China

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C ◽

10.1016/j.pce.2005.06.019 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 30 (6-7) ◽

pp. 408-419 ◽

Cited By ~ 108

Author(s):

Yan Chen ◽

Dunqiang Zhang ◽

Yangbo Sun ◽

Xinai Liu ◽

Nianzhong Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Water Demand ◽

Demand Management ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Water Demand Management ◽

The Heihe River Basin

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Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11020347 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 347 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Ruotong Wang ◽

Qiuya Cheng ◽

Liu Liu ◽

Churui Yan ◽

Guanhua Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Northwest China ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Maximum Air Temperature ◽

The Heihe River Basin ◽

Minimum Air Temperature

Based on three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), observed meteorological data, ERA-40 reanalysis data, and five preferred GCM (general circulation model) outputs selected from 23 GCMs of CMIP5 (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), climate change scenarios including daily precipitation, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature from 2021 to 2050 in the Heihe River basin, which is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China, were generated by constructing a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Results showed that the SDSM had a good prediction capacity for the air temperature in the Heihe River basin. During the calibration and validation periods from 1961 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2000, respectively, the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were both larger than 0.9, while the root mean square error (RMSE) was within 20%. However, the SDSM showed a relative lower simulation efficiency for precipitation, with R2 and NSE values of most meteorological stations reaching 0.5, except for stations located in the downstream desert areas. Compared with the baseline period (1976–2005), changes in the annual mean precipitation simulated by different GCMs during 2021–2050 showed great difference in the three RCP scenarios, fluctuating from −10 to +10%, which became much more significant at seasonal and monthly time scales, except for the consistent decreasing trend in summer and increasing trend in spring. However, the maximum and minimum air temperature exhibited a similar increasing tendency during 2021–2050 in all RCP scenarios, with a higher increase in maximum air temperature, which increased as the CO2 concentration of the RCP scenarios increased. The results could provide scientific reference for sustainable agricultural production and water resources management in arid inland areas subject to climate change.

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