Potato Price Forecasting with Holt-Winters and ARIMA Methods: A Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 336-346
Author(s):  
Mehmet Arif Şahinli
1989 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Brocato ◽  
Akhil Kumar ◽  
Kenneth L. Smith

Author(s):  
Ali Louati ◽  
Rahma Lahyani ◽  
Abdulaziz Aldaej ◽  
Abdullah Aldumaykhi ◽  
Saad Otai

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 1605-1618
Author(s):  
Jianping Chen ◽  
Nadine Tournois ◽  
Qiming Fu

Purpose Cross-border e-commerce in China has been booming in recent years. This paper aims to study pricing in Chinese cross-border e-commerce companies and focuses on the baby food market, which is simply examined as a case study to highlight broader implications. In this intensely competitive sector, the biggest challenge faced by such companies is ensuring that they are in a position to be able set prices in the short-term to maximize their competitive advantage and profitability. The study of pricing will help management to make correct operational decisions. Design/methodology/approach This study utilizes transaction data, which were obtained from the Taobao e-commerce platform. Taobao is the largest e-commerce retail platform in the world. We analyzed factors, including business models, homogeneity, reputation ratings and sales volumes, which may affect pricing. Findings This study found that consumers in the baby food sector of Chinese cross-border e-commerce are not price-sensitive. Consumers are reputation-rating-sensitive. The reputation ratings of sellers affect the price dispersion in e-commerce markets. The Core Price Dispersion Rate Model not only considers the prices but also takes sales volumes into account in the calculations. Finally, based on Gaussian processes, a model was developed for price forecasting in the area of cross-border e-commerce. The experimental results show that the proposed method is highly valuable for price forecasting. Originality/value This study provides a novel understanding of the baby food sector in the Chinese cross-border e-commerce market by examining the business model, price dispersion, reputation rating and correlation between the reputation of sellers, prices and sales volume. Furthermore, a model for price forecasting is proposed.


Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo de Marcos ◽  
Antonio Bello ◽  
Javier Reneses

Various power exchanges are nowadays being affected by a plethora of factors that, as a whole, cause considerable instabilities in the system. As a result, traders and practitioners must constantly adapt their strategies and look for support for their decision-making when operating in the market. In many cases, this calls for suitable electricity price forecasting models that can account for relevant aspects for electricity price forecasting. Consequently, fundamental-econometric hybrid approaches have been developed by many authors in the literature, although these have rarely been applied in short-term contexts, where other considerations and issues must be addressed. Therefore, this work aims to develop a robust hybrid methodology that is capable of making the most of the advantages fundamental and the hybrid model in a synergistic manner, while also providing insight as to how well these models perform across the year. Several methods have been utilised in this work in order to modify the hybridisation approach and the input datasets for enhanced predictive accuracy. The performance of this proposal has been analysed in the real case study of the Iberian power exchange and has outperformed other well-recognised and traditional methods.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianzhou Wang ◽  
Ling Xiao ◽  
Jun Shi

Electricity price forecasting holds very important position in the electricity market. Inaccurate price forecasting may cause energy waste and management chaos in the electricity market. However, electricity price forecasting has always been regarded as one of the largest challenges in the electricity market because it shows high volatility, which makes electricity price forecasting difficult. This paper proposes the use of artificial intelligence optimization combination forecasting models based on preprocessing data, called “chaos particles optimization (CPSO) weight-determined combination models.” These models allow for the weight of the combined model to take values of[-1,1]. In the proposed models, the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm is used to identify outliers, and the outliers are replaced by a new data-produced linear interpolation function. The proposed CPSO weight-determined combination models are then used to forecast the projected future electricity price. In this case study, the electricity price data of South Australia are simulated. The results indicate that, while the weight of the combined model takes values of[-1,1], the proposed combination model can always provide adaptive, reliable, and comparatively accurate forecast results in comparison to traditional combination models.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document