Quantitative assessment of regional land use and climate change impact on runoff across Gilgit watershed

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (22) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahid ◽  
Khalil Ur Rahman ◽  
Sajjad Haider ◽  
Hamza Farooq Gabriel ◽  
Abdul Jabbar Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Regional Land

scholarly journals What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7621-7655 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Stoll ◽  
H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
W. Kinzelbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

scholarly journals What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3861-3875 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Stoll ◽  
H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
W. Kinzelbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

scholarly journals A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 2025-2038 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Anghileri ◽  
F. Pianosi ◽  
R. Soncini-Sessa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Management Problem ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ULZA DAM LIFESPAN

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klodian Zaimi ◽  
Fatos Hoxhaj ◽  
Sergio Fattorelli ◽  
rancesca Ramazzina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Mean

Ulza Dam is one of the oldest hydropower infrastructures in Albania. The water capacity of the reservoir has been reduced because of the accumulation of the sediments coming from Mat River. The bathymetric measurements and river sediment transport are used for quantifying the water storage change up to nowadays. Analyzing the future climate change impact in the sediment transport from the river is very important for understanding the Ulza Dam lifespan. In order to analyze the sediment regime in the future, the climate change projection from the EURO-CORDEX has been downscaled for Mat River catchment and used as input for the HEC-HMS hydrological model considering also the erosion and sediment module. The hydrological model was also calibrated with the MUSLE parameters, and it reproduces the average value of the total sediment transport. The analysis of climate change impact on erosion and sediment transported at the reservoirs was done considering the mean annual load for the different 30-year simulated periods related to values from the historical period 1981-2010. Considering the impacts of climate change, the mean annual sediment siltation could increase for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Over this hypothesis, the remaining lifespan can be reduced drastically in both scenarios. Different land-use scenarios were analyzed in order to evaluate the impact of erosion and, because the current land use scenario doesn’t produce any impact on the hydrological process, but only effects at a small scale, two hypothetical scenarios were defined at large scale and applied for Mat River catchment. Extensive management of land use and reforestation produce a positive effect on the hydrological process and reducing the erosion rate. The change of land use significantly counteracts the negative effects of climate change by 15% and a 24% reduction in the case of these land-use scenarios.

scholarly journals A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 585-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Anghileri ◽  
F. Pianosi ◽  
R. Soncini-Sessa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Management Problem ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The peculiarities of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. An uncertainty analysis is performed in order to assess how the climate natural variability and approximations in modeling the physical system (climate and hydrology) and the socio-economic system (management policy) affect the robustness of the estimated impacts. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather significant and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

Quantitative assessment and prediction of drought under climate change impact in Birjand region, Iran

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 245
Author(s):  
Mostafa Hadizadeh ◽  
Mohammad Reza Farzaneh ◽  
Ali Shahidi ◽  
Mohammad Javad Khordadi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Change Impact
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