A primary study of the correlation between the net air-sea heat flux and the interannual variation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track and intensity

2011 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 27-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Wu ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Ronghui Huang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Primary Study ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track

Applicability of the superensemble to the tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanghee Jun ◽  
Woojeong Lee ◽  
KiRyong Kang ◽  
Kun-Young Byun ◽  
Jiyoung Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track

scholarly journals Impact of Enhanced Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vector Observations on Numerical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts in the Western North Pacific during TPARC/TCS-08

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (11) ◽  
pp. 2309-2318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Berger ◽  
Rolf Langland ◽  
Christopher S. Velden ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Patricia M. Pauley
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Rapid Scan ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEnhanced atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) produced from the geostationary Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) are assimilated into the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) to evaluate the impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts during the simultaneous western North Pacific Ocean Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure—2008 (TCS-08) field experiments. Four-dimensional data assimilation is employed to take advantage of experimental high-resolution (space and time) AMVs produced for the field campaigns by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Two enhanced AMV datasets are considered: 1) extended periods produced at hourly intervals over a large western North Pacific domain using routinely available MTSAT imagery and 2) limited periods over a smaller storm-centered domain produced using special MTSAT rapid-scan imagery. Most of the locally impacted forecast cases involve Typhoons Sinlaku and Hagupit, although other storms are also examined. On average, the continuous assimilation of the hourly AMVs reduces the NOGAPS tropical cyclone track forecast errors—in particular, for forecasts longer than 72 h. It is shown that the AMVs can improve the environmental flow analyses that may be influencing the tropical cyclone tracks. Adding rapid-scan AMV observations further reduces the NOGAPS forecast errors. In addition to their benefit in traditional data assimilation, the enhanced AMVs show promise as a potential resource for advanced objective data-targeting methods.

scholarly journals Weighted Position and Motion Vector Consensus of Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction in the Western North Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (7) ◽  
pp. 2478-2487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell L. Elsberry ◽  
James R. Hughes ◽  
Mark A. Boothe
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Motion Vector ◽  
Weighting Factor ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
Weighting Factors ◽  
Guidance Technique

Abstract Two approaches are developed and tested to improve the unweighted position consensus for 96-, 108-, and 120-h tropical cyclone track guidance in the western North Pacific. A weighted position guidance technique uses a weighting factor for each model that is inversely proportional to how far the 60-, 66-, and 72-h positions of that model are from the corresponding positions of the 11-member position consensus. The weighted position consensus of 96-, 108-, and 120-h track errors for a sample of 24 storms during the 2006 season are consistently smaller than for the unweighted position consensus. In the second approach, a weighted motion vector consensus is developed that uses the same weighting factors as in the weighted position consensus, except that the weights are applied to 12-h motion vectors between 84 and 120 h. This weighted motion vector consensus has substantially smaller errors than the unweighted position consensus, and results in smoother tracks when one or more of the model tracks drops out of the consensus. It is proposed that the weighted motion vector consensus would provide improved guidance for the 96-, 108-, and 120-h tropical cyclone track forecasts.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document