Skill of western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecast guidance relative to Weighted-Analog technique

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Chung Tsai ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Forecast ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast ◽  
Forecast Guidance

Enhanced Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific During Warm Periods Over the Last Two Millennia

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (15) ◽  
pp. 9145-9153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhou ◽  
Zhonghui Liu ◽  
Qing Yan ◽  
Xiaolin Zhang ◽  
Liang Yi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
The Last Two Millennia

scholarly journals An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (15) ◽  
pp. 8960-8968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woojeong Lee ◽  
Sung‐Hun Kim ◽  
Pao‐Shin Chu ◽  
Il‐Ju Moon ◽  
Alexander V. Soloviev
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

scholarly journals Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 1015-1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Liang ◽  
Liguang Wu ◽  
Guojun Gu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Tropical Western North Pacific

Abstract As one major source of forecasting errors in tropical cyclone intensity, rapid weakening of tropical cyclones [an intensity reduction of 20 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or more over a 24-h period] over the tropical open ocean can result from the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres. This study aims to examine rapid weakening events occurring in monsoon gyres in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) basin during May–October 2000–14. Although less than one-third of rapid weakening events happened in the tropical WNP basin south of 25°N, more than 40% of them were associated with monsoon gyres. About 85% of rapid weakening events in monsoon gyres occurred in September and October. The rapid weakening events associated with monsoon gyres are usually observed near the center of monsoon gyres when tropical cyclone tracks make a sudden northward turn. The gyres can enlarge the outer size of tropical cyclones and tend to induce prolonged rapid weakening events with an average duration of 33.2 h. Large-scale environmental factors, including sea surface temperature changes, vertical wind shear, and midlevel environmental humidity, are not primary contributors to them, suggesting the possible effect of monsoon gyres on these rapid weakening events by modulating the tropical cyclone structure. This conclusion is conducive to improving operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity.

scholarly journals Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Western North Pacific Using the IBTrACS Dataset

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (9) ◽  
pp. 2741-2755 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quanjia Zhong ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Lifeng Zhang ◽  
Ruiqiang Ding ◽  
Baosheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Abstract The predictability limits of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over the western North Pacific (WNP) are investigated using TC best track data. The results show that the predictability limit of the TC minimum central pressure (MCP) is ~102 h, comparable to that of the TC maximum sustained wind (MSW). The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of the TC MCP over the WNP is similar to that of the TC MSW, and both gradually decrease from the eastern WNP (EWNP) to the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limits of the TC MCP and MSW are relatively high over the southeastern WNP where the modified accumulated cyclone energy (MACE) is relatively large, whereas they are relatively low over the SCS where the MACE is relatively small. The spatial patterns of the TC lifetime and the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) are similar to that of the TC MACE. Strong and long-lived TCs, which have relatively long predictability, mainly form in the southwestern WNP. In contrast, weak and short-lived TCs, which have relatively short predictability, mainly form in the SCS. In addition to the dependence of the predictability limit on genesis location, the predictability limits of TC intensity also evolve in the TC life cycle. The predictability limit of the TC MCP (MSW) gradually decreases from 102 (108) h at genesis time (00 h) to 54 (84) h 4 days after TC genesis.

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