Testing Vertical Wind Shear and Nonlinear MJO/ENSO Interactions as Predictors for Subseasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Hansen et al. (2020) found patterns of vertical wind shear, relative humidity (RH) and non-linear interactions between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation that impact subseasonal Atlantic TC activity. We test whether these patterns can be used to improve subseasonal predictions. To do this we build a statistical-dynamical hybrid model using Navy-ESPC reforecasts as a part of the SUBX project. By adding and removing Navy-ESPC reforecasted values of predictors from a logistic regression model, we assess the contribution of skill from each predictor. We find that Atlantic SSTs and the MJO are the most important factors governing subseasonal Atlantic TC activity. RH contributes little to subseasonal TC predictions, however, shear predictors improve forecast skill at 5-10 day lead times, before forecast shear errors become too large. Non-linear MJO/ENSO interactions did not improve skill compared to separate linear considerations of these factors but did improve the reliability of predictions for high-probability active TC periods. Both non-linear MJO/ENSO interactions and the subseasonal shear signal appear linked to PV streamer activity. This study suggests that correcting model shear biases and improving representation of Rossby wave-breaking is the most efficient way to improve subseasonal Atlantic TC forecasts.

On the force of vertical winds in the upper atmosphere: consequences for small biological particles

For many decades, vertical winds have been observed at high altitudes of the Earth’s atmosphere, in the mesosphere and thermosphere layers. These observations have been used with a simple one-dimensional model to make estimates of possible altitude climbs by biologically sized particles deeper into the thermosphere, in the rare occurrence where such a particle has been propelled to these altitudes. A particle transport mechanism is suggested from the literature on auroral arcs, indicating that an altitude of 120 km could be reached by a nanometre-sized particle, which is higher than the measured 77 km limit on the biosphere. Vertical wind observations in the upper mesophere and lower thermosphere are challenging to make and so we suggest that particles could reach altitudes greater than 120 km, depending on the magnitude of the vertical wind. Applications of the larger vertical winds in the upper atmosphere to astrobiology and climate science are explored.

Vertical wind tunnel experiments and a theoretical study on the microphysics of melting low-density graupel

Vertical wind tunnel experiments were carried out to investigate the melting of low-density lump graupel while floating at their terminal velocities. The graupel characteristics such as maximum dimension, density, and axis ratio, were 0.39 ± 0.06 cm, 0.41 ± 0.07 g cm−3, and 0.89 ± 0.06. The air stream of the wind tunnel was gradually heated simulating lapse rates between 4.5 K km−1 and 3.21 K km−1. Each experimental run was performed at a constant relative humidity that was varied between 12 % and 92 % from one experiment to the other. From the image processing of video recordings, variations in minimum and maximum dimension, volume, aspect ratio, density, volume equivalent radius, and ice core radius were obtained. New parameterizations of the terminal velocity prior to melting and during melting were developed. It was found that mass and heat transfer in the dry stage is two times higher compared to that of liquid drops at the same Reynolds number. Based on the experimental results a model was developed from which the external and internal convective enhancement factors during melting due to surface irregularities and internal motions inside the melt water were derived using a Monte Carlo approach. The modelled total melting times and distances deviated by 10 % from the experimental results. Sensitivity tests with the developed model revealed strong dependencies of the melting process on relative humidity, lapse rate, initial graupel density, and graupel size. In dependence on these parameters, the total melting distance varied between 600 m and 1200 m for typical conditions of a falling graupel.

Factors Controlling Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over the Marginal Seas of China

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensification over marginal seas, especially rapid intensification (RI), often poses great threat to lives and properties in coastal regions and is subject to large forecast errors. It is thus important to understand the characteristics of TC intensification and the involved key factors affecting TC intensification over marginal seas. In this study, the 6-hourly TC best-track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and TRMM satellite rainfall products are used to analyze and compare the climatological characteristics and key factors of different intensification stratifications over the marginal seas of China (MSC) and the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980–2018. The statistical results show that TC intensification over the MSC is more likely to occur when TCs experience relatively large intensities, weak vertical wind shear, small translation perpendicular to the coastline, relatively high fullness, strong upper-level divergence, low-level relative vorticity, and high inner-core precipitation rate. The box difference index method is used to quantify the relative contributions of these factors to TC RI. Results show that the initial (relative) intensity contributes the most to TC RI over both the MSC and the WNP. The inner-core precipitation rate and translation perpendicular to the coastline are of second importance to TC RI over the MSC, while both vertical wind shear and TC fullness are crucial to TC RI over the WNP. These findings may help understand TC activity over the MSC and provide a basis for improving intensity prediction of TCs in the MSC.

Diffusion from a point source using power law of wind speed

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Multistatic meteor radar observations to assess the spatial variability of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds using a 3DVAR+div tomographic retrieval to measure spatially resolved 3D winds

<p>The middle atmospheric circulation is driven by atmospheric waves, which carry energy and momentum from their source to the area of their dissipation and thus providing an energetic coupling between different atmospheric layers. A comprehensive understanding of the wave-wave or wave-mean flow interactions often requires a spatial characterization of these waves. Multistatic meteor radar observations provide an opportunity to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds on regional scales. We apply the 3DVAR+div retrievals to observations from the Nordic Meteor Radar Cluster and the Chilean Observation Network De Meteor Radars (CONDOR). Here we present preliminary results of a new 3DVAR+div retrieval to infer the vertical wind variability using spatially resolved observations. The new retrieval includes the continuity equation in the forward model to ensure physical consistency in the vertical winds. Our preliminary results indicate that the vertical wind variability is about +/-2m/s. The 3DVAR+div algorithm provides spatially resolved winds resolves body forces of breaking gravity waves, which are typically indicated by two counterrotating vortices. Furthermore, we infer horizontal wavelength spectra for all 3 wind components to obtain spectral slopes indicating a transition of the vertical to the divergent mode at scales of about 80-120 km at the mesosphere.</p>

Sensitivity Analysis of Turbine Fatigue and Ultimate Loads to Wind and Wake Characteristics in a Small Wind Farm

Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to determine the fatigue and ultimate loads, typically focused solely on unwaked wind turbine operation. These structural loads can be significantly influenced by the wind inflow conditions. When placed in the wake of upstream turbines, turbines experience altered inflow conditions, which can additionally influence the fatigue and ultimate loads. Although significant research and effort has been put into measuring and defining such parameters, limited work has been done to quantify the sensitivity of structural loads to the inevitable uncertainty in these inflow conditions, especially in a wind farm setting with waked conditions. It is therefore important to understand the impact such uncertainties have on the resulting loads of both non-waked and waked turbines. The goal of this work is to assess which wind-inflow- and wake-related parameters have the greatest influence on fatigue and ultimate loads during normal operation for turbines in a three-turbine wind farm. Twenty-eight wind inflow and wake parameters were screened using an elementary effects sensitivity analysis approach to identify the parameters that lead to the largest variation in the fatigue and ultimate loads of each turbine. This study was performed using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 MW baseline wind turbine with synthetically generated inflow based on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum with IEC exponential coherence model. The focus was on sensitivity to individual parameters, though interactions between parameters were considered, and how sensitivity differs between waked and non-waked turbines. The results of this work show that for both waked and non-waked turbines, ambient turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear were the most sensitive parameters for turbine fatigue and ultimate loads. Secondary parameters of importance for all turbines were identified as yaw misalignment, u-direction integral length, and the exponent and u components of the IEC coherence model. The tertiary parameters of importance differ between waked and non-waked turbines. Tertiary effects account for up to 9.0 % of the significant events for waked turbine ultimate loads and include veer; non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model; Reynolds stresses; wind direction; air density; and several wake calibration parameters. For fatigue loads, tertiary effects account for up to 5.4 % of the significant events and include vertical turbulence standard deviation; lateral and vertical wind integral lengths; lateral and vertical wind components of the IEC coherence model; Reynolds stresses; wind direction; and all wake calibration parameters. This information shows the increased importance of non-streamwise wind components and wake parameters in fatigue and ultimate load sensitivity of downstream turbines.

Improvement of the all-weather profiler

The article considers the issues of improving the quality of vertical wind profile measurements. In order to make these measurements under any meteorological conditions, data from profilometers operating in different wave ranges, from optical to centimetre, are combined. At the same time, the resolving power of the latter is considerably inferior to that of the former. We propose a way to improve the quality of measurements in the radio band by applying a new method of information processing, using estimates of the width of the spectrum and the peculiarities of their spatial distribution.