scholarly journals Epidemiological models and COVID-19: a comparative view

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriano Iranzo ◽  
Saúl Pérez-González
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based

AbstractEpidemiological models have played a central role in the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when urgent decisions were required and available evidence was sparse. They have been used to predict the evolution of the disease and to inform policy-making. In this paper, we address two kinds of epidemiological models widely used in the pandemic, namely, compartmental models and agent-based models. After describing their essentials—some real examples are invoked—we discuss their main strengths and weaknesses. Then, on the basis of this analysis, we make a comparison between their respective merits concerning three different goals: prediction, explanation, and intervention. We argue that there are general considerations which could favour any of those sorts of models for obtaining the aforementioned goals. We conclude, however, that preference for particular models must be grounded case-by-case since additional contextual factors, as the peculiarities of the target population and the aims and expectations of policy-makers, cannot be overlooked.

Towards systematic reviews that inform health care management and policy-making

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 35-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Lavis ◽  
Huw Davies ◽  
Andy Oxman ◽  
Jean-Louis Denis ◽  
Karen Golden-Biddle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Systematic Reviews ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Care Management ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
Health Care Management ◽  
Health Care Managers ◽  
Executive Summary ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Care Managers

Objectives To identify ways to improve the usefulness of systematic reviews for health care managers and policy-makers that could then be evaluated prospectively. Methods We systematically reviewed studies of decision-making by health care managers and policy-makers, conducted interviews with a purposive sample of them in Canada and the United Kingdom (n=29), and reviewed the websites of research funders, producers/purveyors of research, and journals that include them among their target audiences (n=45). Results Our systematic review identified that factors such as interactions between researchers and health care policy-makers and timing/timeliness appear to increase the prospects for research use among policy-makers. Our interviews with health care managers and policy-makers suggest that they would benefit from having information that is relevant for decisions highlighted for them (e.g. contextual factors that affect a review's local applicability and information about the benefits, harms/risks and costs of interventions) and having reviews presented in a way that allows for rapid scanning for relevance and then graded entry (such as one page of take-home messages, a three-page executive summary and a 25-page report). Managers and policy-makers have mixed views about the helpfulness of recommendations. Our analysis of websites found that contextual factors were rarely highlighted, recommendations were often provided and graded entry formats were rarely used. Conclusions Researchers could help to ensure that the future flow of systematic reviews will better inform health care management and policy-making by involving health care managers and policy-makers in their production and better highlighting information that is relevant for decisions. Research funders could help to ensure that the global stock of systematic reviews will better inform health care management and policy-making by supporting and evaluating local adaptation processes such as developing and making available online more user-friendly ‘front ends’ for potentially relevant systematic reviews.

scholarly journals Supporting Austria through the COVID-19 Epidemics with a Forecast-Based Early Warning System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Bicher ◽  
Martin Zuba ◽  
Lukas Rainer ◽  
Florian Bachner ◽  
Claire Rippinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Public ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
The Media

BackgroundThe corona crisis hit Austria at the end of February 2020 with one of the first European superspreading events. In response, the governmental crisis unit commissioned a forecast consortium with regularly projections of case numbers and demand for hospital beds.MethodsWe consolidated the output of three independent epidemiological models (ranging from agent-based micro simulation to parsimonious compartmental models) and published weekly short-term forecasts for the number of confirmed cases as well as estimates and upper bounds for the required hospital beds.FindingsHere, we report om four key contributions by which our forecasting and reporting system has helped shaping Austria’s policy to navigate the crisis and re-open the country step-wise, namely (i) when and where case numbers are expected to peak during the first wave, (ii) how to safely re-open the country after passing this peak, (iii) how to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions and (iv) provide hospital managers guidance to plan health-care capacities.InterpretationComplex mathematical epidemiological models play an important role in guiding governmental responses during pandemic crises, provided they are used as a monitoring system to detect epidemiological change points. For policy-makers, the media and the public, it might be problematic to distinguish short-term forecasts from worst-case scenarios with undefined levels of certainty, creating distrust in the legitimacy and accuracy of such models. However, when used as a short-term forecast-based monitoring system, the models can inform decisions to ease or strengthen governmental responses.

Prioritizing Strategic Factors of Creative Tourism Industry in Iran by Analytic Network Process (ANP)

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 553-565
Author(s):  
Reza Kiani Mavi ◽  
Hamed Gheibdoust ◽  
Ahmad A. Khanfar
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Business Support ◽  
Network Process ◽  
Strategic Factors ◽  
Strategic Policy ◽  
Strategic Policies

Nowadays, it is obvious that creative tourism industry has become very essential for countries and societies; therefore, governments work on constituting policies in order to develop this industry. To be successful in improving creative tourism industry, governments should identify the influential factors and focus on ones that are more important rather than investing a bit on many different factors. Because of the interrelations among factors, this research is aiming to prioritize factors that influence strategic policies of creative tourism industry in Iran using analytic network process (ANP). Data were collected during the period of May 2017 to February 2018. Participants in this research are 13 tourism experts with more than 10 years' experience in the field. Results show that the most influential criterion is "business support" and the most influential subcriterion is "supporting midsize businesses." This study helps policy makers to improve creative tourism by emphasizing on those factors that have high priority from the viewpoint of strategic policy-making.

Sentencing Policy as a Force for Social Cohesion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Henham
Keyword(s):  
Social Cohesion ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Social Values ◽  
Social Reality ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Normative Approach ◽  
The Social ◽  
Sentencing Policy

This chapter sets out the case for adopting a normative approach to conceptualizing the social reality of sentencing. It argues that policy-makers need to comprehend how sentencing is implicated in realizing state values and take greater account of the social forces that diminish the moral credibility of state sponsored punishment. The chapter reflects on the problems of relating social values to legal processes such as sentencing and argues that crude notions of ‘top down’ or ‘bottom up’ approaches to policy-making should be replaced by a process of contextualized policy-making. Finally, the chapter stresses the need for sentencing policy to reflect those moral attachments that bind citizens together in a relational or communitarian sense. It concludes by exploring these assertions in the light of the sentencing approach taken by the courts following the English riots of 2011.

scholarly journals Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367
Author(s):  
Amirarsalan Rajabi ◽  
Alexander V. Mantzaris ◽  
Ece C. Mutlu ◽  
Ozlem O. Garibay
Keyword(s):  
Disease Model ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Behavioral Adaptations ◽  
Travel Restrictions

Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals; testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions.

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