Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Pažický
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Applying Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model to Forecasting the US Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rates

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Valerii Maltsev ◽  
Michael Pokojovy
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Stochastic Evolution ◽  
Infinite Dimensions ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Hjm Model ◽  
Concise Review ◽  
The Us ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting

The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model is a powerful instrument for describing the stochastic evolution of interest rate curves under no-arbitrage assumption. An important feature of the HJM approach is the fact that the drifts can be expressed as functions of respective volatilities and the underlying correlation structure. Aimed at researchers and practitioners, the purpose of this article is to present a self-contained, but concise review of the abstract HJM framework founded upon the theory of interest and stochastic partial differential equations in infinite dimensions. To illustrate the predictive power of this theory, we apply it to modeling and forecasting the US Treasury daily yield curve rates. We fit a non-parametric model to real data available from the US Department of the Treasury and illustrate its statistical performance in forecasting future yield curve rates.

Covered interest parity in cross-currency swap bases and demand for US treasuries

2020 ◽  
Vol 07 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050018
Author(s):  
Cho-Hoi Hui ◽  
Chi-Fai Lo ◽  
Chin-To Fung
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
The Us ◽  
Covered Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Parity ◽  
Us Dollar

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between demand for the US Treasury yields and cross-currency swap (CCS) bases since the 2008 global financial crisis. Using a three-factor non-Gaussian-term structure model for the US Treasuries, an estimated short-rate premium in the yield curve tends to move in tandem with and lead the euro and Japanese yen CCS bases against the US dollar. The dynamics between the premium and CCS bases are found to be co-integrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium between them. Empirically, the premium is found to be positively related to demand for Treasuries. This is consistent with recent studies in which factors including the strength of the US dollar, the demand for dollar funding and banks’ balance-sheet structures play important roles in determining the CCS bases. These factors increase demand for US Treasuries (high-quality US dollar assets) by investors searching for safe dollar assets and banks with higher leverages due to increased demand for dollar funding. The findings in this paper contribute to explaining the widespread failure of covered interest parity in foreign exchange swap markets.

scholarly journals Do Investors Still Gravitate to Preferred Habitats on the US Treasury Yield Curve?

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 214
Author(s):  
Kenneth S. Dreifus ◽  
Angelo DeCandia ◽  
Elliot Goldberg ◽  
Mohammed S. Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
World War ◽  
Post World War Ii ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Preferred Habitat ◽  
The Us ◽  
Analyze Data

The purpose of this study is to test the preferred habitat theory non-econometrically using interviews with the help of a questionnaire for self-guidance on a group of focused investors. Frequencies and simple percentages were used to analyze data. Though many generations of post-World War II economics and finance students were taught that the nature of the liabilities on the balance sheet and the desire to avoid mismatches against assets caused particular classes of investors to gravitate to a preferred habitat on the yield curve, our study based on the responses to questionnaires by a group of U.S. based bond traders and risk analysts shows that more than half of the respondents have no preference as to where on the curve they trade, whether the trade is on behalf of their customers or for the house, and that their arbitrage strategies are driven by opportunities for profit.

SNB move will accentuate bond-equity divergence

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us

Significance The move mainly aims to pre-empt the widely anticipated launch of a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB on January 22. However, it will accentuate divergences between bond and equity markets. Sovereign bond yields for most advanced economies are falling to new lows and are increasingly negative at the shorter end of the yield curve, because of deflation fears and lacklustre growth outlooks. Yet equity markets are hovering near record highs, buoyed by the US recovery and expectations of further monetary stimulus in the euro-area. Impacts Bond markets will be driven by deflation fears, while equity markets, especially US stocks, will be buoyed by Goldilocks-type conditions. Market expectations that the ECB will launch a sovereign QE programme will make bond yields fall further. Bond yields will be suppressed by investor scepticism about the ECB's ability to reflate the euro-area economy.

Disconnect will grow between Fed policy and yields

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
European Banks ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Price Distortions

Subject US market dynamics. Significance The flattening of the US government bond yield curve -- the process in which yields on short-dated bonds converge with, or exceed, those on long-dated debt -- is fuelling debate about monetary policy and the outlook for global growth, especially US growth given the determination of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates steadily. Financial markets fear the Fed is being overly hawkish, but price distortions and technical factors appear to be driving the flattening more than economic weakness. Impacts The VIX volatility index, Wall Street’s 'fear' gauge, is signalling near-term stability. The Bank of Japan’s July policy tweaking led to the sharpest 10-year bond yield rise in two years, highlighting fears of stimulus ending. The Fed is raising rates, but China is loosening policy to boost GDP amid rising trade costs, putting downward pressure on the renminbi. Turkish borrowers owe European banks nearly 170 billion dollars, half to Spain and over 35 billion dollars to France, worrying the ECB.

Fed policy move will mean lower rates for even longer

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Significance The Fed reduced interest rates to 0-0.25% and almost doubled the size of its balance sheet to offset some of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US economy but clear signs of economic activity rebounding are now prompting the Fed to look further out. Impacts The Fed will reassure markets that there will be no rate increases under virtually any circumstances in the next few years. Eventually the Fed will consider reducing the size of its balance sheet; this will require adroit management to avoid worrying investors. There appears to be little support at the Fed for negative rates; adopting yield-curve control remains possible if the recovery disappoints.

A structural decomposition of the US yield curve

2009 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 545-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferre De Graeve ◽  
Marina Emiris ◽  
Raf Wouters
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Structural Decomposition ◽  
The Us

ARBITRAGE SMOOTHING IN FITTING A SEQUENCE OF YIELD CURVES

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (05) ◽  
pp. 577-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAUL A. BEKKER ◽  
KEES E. BOUWMAN
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Modeling ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Parameter Stability ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Us ◽  
Parsimonious Models ◽  
Absence Of Arbitrage

Empirical modeling of the yield curve is often inconsistent with absence of arbitrage. In fact, many parsimonious models, like the popular Nelson-Siegel model, are inconsistent with absence of arbitrage. In other cases, arbitrage-free models are often used in inconsistent ways by recalibrating parameters that are assumed constant. For these cases, this paper introduces an arbitrage smoothing device to control arbitrage errors that arise in fitting a sequence of yield curves. The device is applied to the US term structure for the family of Nelson-Siegel curves. It is shown that the arbitrage smoothing device contributes to parameter stability and smoothness.

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