scholarly journals Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Chen ◽  
Tatsuro Senga ◽  
Hongyong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Subjective Uncertainty ◽  
Direct Exposure ◽  
Triple Difference

AbstractUtilizing a unique firm-level survey in Japan that contains five-bin forecasts for sales, we document three findings. First, firm-level subjective uncertainty is highly and positively related to volatility of past firm growth. Second, there are substantial variations in subjective uncertainty across firms, with a long right tail with extremely high subjective uncertainty. In addition, firms that have exposure to international businesses either through international trade or foreign direct investment have both higher average expected sales and subjective uncertainty. Finally, the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in January–February 2020 led to a substantial increase in firms’ subjective uncertainty. Our triple-difference estimation results show that this effect is especially large for firms that have direct exposure to China through international trade and foreign direct investment.

The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Baccini ◽  
Pablo M. Pinto ◽  
Stephen Weymouth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Multinational Corporations ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Preferential Trade ◽  
Distributional Consequences

AbstractWhile increasing trade and foreign direct investment, international trade agreements create winners and losers. Our paper examines the distributional consequences of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) at the firm level. We contend that PTAs expand trade among the largest and most productive multinationals by lowering preferential tariffs. We examine data covering the near universe of US foreign direct investment and disaggregated tariff data from PTAs signed by the United States. Our results indicate that US preferential tariffs increase sales to the United States from the most competitive subsidiaries of multinational corporations operating in partner countries. We also find increases in market concentration in partner countries following preferential liberalization with the United States. By demonstrating that the gains from preferential liberalization are unevenly distributed across firms, we shed new light on the firm-level, economic sources of political mobilization over international trade and investment policies.

scholarly journals International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment as Innovation Factors of the U.S. Economy

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-75
Author(s):  
Tomasz M. Napiórkowski
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Main Portion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Impact ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The aim of this research is to asses the hypothesis that foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade have had a positive impact on innovation in one of the most significant economies in the world, the United States (U.S.). To do so, the author used annual data from 1995 to 2010 to build a set of econometric models. In each model, 11 in total) the number of patent applications by U.S. residents is regressed on inward FDI stock, exports and imports of the economy as a collective, and in each of the 10 SITC groups separately. Although the topic of FDI is widely covered in the literature, there are still disagreements when it comes to the impact of foreign direct investment on the host economy [McGrattan, 2011]. To partially address this gap, this research approaches the host economy not only as an aggregate, but also as a sum of its components (i.e., SITC groups), which to the knowledge of this author has not yet been done on the innovation-FDI-trade plane, especially for the U.S. Unfortunately, the study suffers from the lack of available data. For example, the number of patents and other used variables is reported in the aggregate and not for each SITC groups (e.g., trade). As a result, our conclusions regarding exports and imports in a specific SITC category (and the total) impact innovation in the U.S. is reported in the aggregate. General notions found in the literature are first shown and discussed. Second, the dynamics of innovation, trade and inward FDI stock in the U.S. are presented. Third, the main portion of the work, i.e. the econometric study, takes place, leading to several policy applications and conclusions.

Causal Relathionships Between Gross Domestic Product, International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svitlana Plaskon ◽  
Svitlana Shevelova ◽  
Ruslana Ruska ◽  
Olesya Martyniuk ◽  
Oksana Lesyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Domestic Product

Foreign Direct Investment and the Flying Geese Model: Japanese Electronics Firms in Asia-Pacific

2000 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W Edgington ◽  
Roger Hayter
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Billiard Ball ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
Japanese Fdi

This paper is a critical examination of the ‘flying geese’ and ‘billiard ball’ models of foreign direct investment (FDI) and their ability to explain the spatial expansion of Japanese electronics multinationals (MNCs) in Asia-Pacific countries from 1985 to 1996. Data on Japanese FDI are analyzed in this region at the aggregate, sectoral, and firm level. The paper commences with a review of the flying geese model, especially that version which interprets Japanese FDI as a catalyst for Asian development, and the billiard ball metaphor which suggests a mechanism for host countries to ‘catch up’ with Japan. The authors then turn to an analysis of Japanese FDI in Asia-Pacific together with employment data for fourteen major firms. This allows an evaluation of the two models in terms of recent geographical patterns of investment and employment growth by electronics MNCs. A special case study of Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. Ltd (MEI) helps flesh out the evolving geography of Japanese electronics firms in Asia-Pacific. Although the results support the overall patterns suggested by the two models, the authors argue that metaphors and analogies such as flying geese and billiard balls should not be used casually and as a substitute for analysis.

Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: A Firm-Level Analysis of Bangladesh in Comparison with Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif-Ur-Rahman ◽  
Kazuo Inaba
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
External Effects ◽  
Productivity Improvement ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Fdi Spillovers ◽  
Foreign Presence ◽  
Backward Linkages ◽  
Level Analysis

Abstract Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to generate external effects—usually termed FDI spillovers—for a host country, and these spillovers are thought to have consequences on the productivity of domestic firms. Despite this strong expectation, the empirical findings on FDI spillover are still indecisive. This study examines firm-level panel data to determine the effects of FDI spillover on firms’ productivity in Bangladesh in comparison to Vietnam. We consider both the horizontal and vertical (backward and forward) spillover effects of FDI. We find evidence that Bangladeshi firms gain productivity improvement through intra-industry or horizontal linkages, whereas Vietnamese firms gain through backward linkages. Our findings suggest that increases in foreign presence in the same industry for Bangladesh and in downstream industries for Vietnam are related with increase in output of domestic firms.JEL Code: F2, O1, O3

scholarly journals Determinants of Ethiopian Agricultural Exports: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 70-94
Author(s):  
Fassil Eshetu ◽  
Abule Mehare
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Moment Method ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Regression Result ◽  
Agricultural Exports

Although the share of developing countries in international trade has been growing over the last two decades, the share of Africa and Ethiopia in international trade has remained below 3 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. More importantly, despite the colossal effort that has been made by the Ethiopian government to remedy the problem of the export sector over the last two decades, the country has faced a twin deficit: trade deficit and fiscal deficit. As a result, the trade balance of Ethiopia has been worsening through time due to the widening gap between export and import values. Therefore, this study examined the determinants of Ethiopian agricultural exports using the imperfect substitutes’ model as a theoretical framework and system generalised moment method as an analytical model for the period 1998–2018. The regression result of the two-step system generalised moment method showed that gross domestic product, exchange rate, road network, corruption index of Ethiopia, lagged export value, indirect tax revenue and domestic saving are the major determinants of agricultural exports in Ethiopia. However, foreign direct investment and labour force are negatively and significantly related to Ethiopian agricultural exports. Hence, rapid economic growth, currency devaluation, encouraging domestic saving, reducing the tariff on export and better control of corruption would boost Ethiopian agricultural exports. Besides, controlling rapid population growth and directing foreign direct investment to the agricultural sector will also surge Ethiopian agricultural exports.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document