Modeling Earthmoving Operations in Real-Time Using Hybrid Fuzzy Simulation

Predicting and optimizing performance in earthmoving operations is critical, because they are essential to many construction projects. The complexity of modeling earthmoving operations remains challenging, even with several modeling techniques available, including simulation. This paper advances the state-of-the-art of modeling earthmoving operations by introducing a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics–discrete event simulation framework with the capacity to: capture the dynamism of performance in earthmoving operations; capture subjective uncertainty of several factors affecting them; model their sequential nature and resource constraints; and determine actual travel time, in real time, using online navigation systems. Findings from this research confirm the proposed framework (1) extends the application of simulation techniques for modeling construction processes involving dynamic input variables and subjective uncertainty, through its ability to capture the non-probabilistic uncertainty of construction systems, and (2) when combined with the use of online navigation systems to assess trucks’ travel time, improves the accuracy of earthmoving operation models.

A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty

We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.

Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic

Utilizing a unique firm-level survey in Japan that contains five-bin forecasts for sales, we document three findings. First, firm-level subjective uncertainty is highly and positively related to volatility of past firm growth. Second, there are substantial variations in subjective uncertainty across firms, with a long right tail with extremely high subjective uncertainty. In addition, firms that have exposure to international businesses either through international trade or foreign direct investment have both higher average expected sales and subjective uncertainty. Finally, the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in January–February 2020 led to a substantial increase in firms’ subjective uncertainty. Our triple-difference estimation results show that this effect is especially large for firms that have direct exposure to China through international trade and foreign direct investment.

Uncoupled: American Widows in Times of Uncertainty and Ambiguous Norms

This study uses the concept of uncertainty in general, and specifically objective and subjective uncertainty, as a framework for understanding how a widow experiences grief and attempts to reestablish her sense of self. It investigates how widows understand, internalize, and act on objective and subjective uncertainty and the interplay between them. Objective uncertainty usually refers to more concrete situations or conditions, for example, health and finances, and there is more consensus regarding them, whereas subjective uncertainty is more individual and volatile, and refers to relationships or interpretation of the objective conditions. The researcher used a combination of participant observation and semistructured interviews. of widows from different socioeconomic classes and ethnic groups. The research revealed that uncertainty plays a large role in the widows’ attempt to live new “suddenly single” lives and that they experience both subjective and objective uncertainty, with subjective uncertainty playing a greater role. Further research is needed to understand the effect of different familial and societal “uncertainty avoidance cultures” on widows experiencing multi-ethnic or multinational identities either by descent of intercultural marriage.

Specific cognitive signatures of information seeking in controllable environments

In uncertain environments, seeking information about the accuracy of alternative strategies is essential for adapting behavior to changes in task contingencies. However, information seeking often co-occurs with changes-of-mind about the perceived accuracy of the current strategy, making it difficult to isolate its specific mechanisms. Here we leveraged the fact that genuine information seeking requires instrumental control to study its cognitive signatures in an adaptive decision-making task tested with and without control. We found that changes-of-mind occurring in controllable environments require more evidence against the current strategy, are associated with reduced confidence, but are nevertheless more likely to be confirmed on the next decision. Computational modelling explained these effects of information seeking through a decrease in the perceived volatility of controllable environments, resulting in stronger and more prolonged effects of changes-of-mind on cognition and behavior. Together, these findings explain the high degree of subjective uncertainty associated with information seeking.

A Bayesian Model of Social Influence under Risk and Uncertainty

Humans live in an uncertain world and often rely on social information in order to reduce uncertainty. However, the relationship between uncertainty and social information use is not yet fully understood. In this work we argue that previous studies have often neglected different degrees of uncertainty that need to be accounted for when studying social information use. We introduce a novel experimental paradigm to measure risky decision making, wherein social information and uncertainty are manipulated. We also developed a Bayesian model of social information use. We show that across different levels of uncertainty; social influence follows similar principles. Social information is more impactful when individuals are more uncertain. Notably, this relationship holds for experimental manipulations of uncertainty but also for subjective uncertainty within experimental conditions. We conclude with discussing that social influence can be better understood when paying credit to subjective uncertainties and preferences.