Trend Moment Method to Predict Sales of Pekanbaru Hoya Bread

Hoya or better known as Hoya Bakery is located on Durian Street, Pekanbaru City. Is one of the shops and factories that produce and sell various kinds of bread and market snacks located in various places in Pekanbaru. Especially in meeting the demand that will be distributed to consumers which is relatively large so that there are often out of stock bread and excess stock. Therefore, accurate and efficient predictions of bread sales are needed using the trend moment method. A forecast to produce forecasts of bread supplies in the future. In this study, data on bread sales are used every month from October 2019 to September 2020. The sales record for each month is useful to see whether it has increased or decreased. The result of this research is the creation of a computerized system that is able to generate estimates for the next month using the PHP and MySQL programming languages, making it easier to find out how much bread will be sold and consider how much will be produced in the following month so that there is no shortage or excess stock of bread

From kinetic to fluid models of liquid crystals by the moment method

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This paper deals with the convergence of the Doi-Navier-Stokes model of liquid crystals to the Ericksen-Leslie model in the limit of the Deborah number tending to zero. While the literature has investigated this problem by means of the Hilbert expansion method, we develop the moment method, i.e. a method that exploits conservation relations obeyed by the collision operator. These are non-classical conservation relations which are associated with a new concept, that of Generalized Collision Invariant (GCI). In this paper, we develop the GCI concept and relate it to geometrical and analytical structures of the collision operator. Then, the derivation of the limit model using the GCI is performed in an arbitrary number of spatial dimensions and with non-constant and non-uniform polymer density. This non-uniformity generates new terms in the Ericksen-Leslie model.</p>

Reliability Assessment on Pile Foundation Bearing Capacity Based on the First Four Moments in High-Order Moment Method

In this paper, the high-order moment method (HOMM) was developed for estimating pile foundation bearing capacity reliability assessment. Firstly, after the performance function was established, the first four moments (viz. mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) were suggested to be determined by a point estimate method based on two-dimensional reduction integrations. Then, the probability distribution of the performance function for the pile foundation bearing capacity was then approximated by a four-parameter cubic normal distribution, in which its distribution parameters are the first four moments. Meanwhile, the quantile of the probability distribution for the performance function and its reliability index was capable to be obtained through this distribution. In order to examine the efficiency of this method in engineering application, four pile foundations with different length-diameter radios were investigated in detail. The results demonstrate that the reliability analysis based on HOMM is greatly improved to the computational efficiency without loss precision compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and does not require complex partial derivative solving, checking point sought, and large numbers of iteration comparing with first-order reliability method (FORM). Moreover, the probability distribution function (PDF) approximated by the four-parameter cubic normal distribution was found to be consistent with that obtained by MCS. Eventually, the effects of parameter sensitivity for relative soil layer of the certain pile on reliability index were illustrated using the above-mentioned method. It indicated that the HOMM is an effective and simple approach for reliability assessment of the pile foundation bearing capacity.

Regional analysis of maximum rainfall using L-moment and LH-moment: A comparative case study for the northeast India

Rainfall data of the northeast region of India has been considered for selecting best fit model for rainfall frequency analysis. The methods of L-moment has been employed for estimation of parameters five probability distributions, namely Generalized extreme value (GEV), Generalized Logistic(GLO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), 3 parameter Log normal (LN3) and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions. The methods of LH-moment of four orders (L1 L2, L3 & L4-moments) have also been used for estimating the parameters of three probability distributions namely Generalized extreme value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions. PE3 distribution has been selected as the best fitting distribution using L-moment, GPA distribution using L1-moment and GLO distribution using L2, L3 & L4-moments. Relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and RBIAS are employed to compare between the results found from L-moment and LH-moment analysis. It is found that GPA distribution designated by L1-moment method is the most suitable and the best fitting distribution for rainfall frequency analysis of the northeast India. Also the L1-moment method is significantly more efficient than L-moment and other orders of LH-moment for rainfall frequency analysis of the northeast India.

Research on Bridge Structure Reliability Evaluation due to Vessels Collison Based on a Statistical Moment Method

Damage to bridge structures caused by vessel collision is a risk for bridges crossing water traffic routes. Therefore, safety around vessel collision of existing and planned bridges is one of the key technical problems that must be solved by engineering technicians and bridge managers. In the evaluation of the reliability of the bridge structure, the two aspects of vessel-bridge collision force and structural resistance need to be considered. As there are many influencing parameters, the performance function is difficult to express by explicit function. This paper combines the moment method theory of structural reliability with finite element analysis and proposes a statistical moment method based on finite element analysis for the calculation of vessel-bridge collision reliability, which solves the structural reliability problem with a nonlinear implicit performance function. According to the probability model based on current velocity, vessel velocity, and vessel collision tonnage, the estimate points in the standard normal space are converted into estimate points in the original state space through the Rosenblatt reverse transform. According to the estimate points in the original state space and the simplified dynamic load model of vessel-bridge collision, the sample time-history curve of random vessel-bridge collision force is generated, the dynamic response of the bridge structure and the structural resistance of the bridge are calculated by establishing a finite element model, and the failure probability and reliability index of the bridge structure is calculated according to the fourth-moment method. The statistical moment based on the finite element analysis is based on the finite element analysis and the moment method theory of structural reliability. The statistical moment of the limited performance function is calculated through a quite small amount of confirmatory finite element analysis, and the structural reliability index and failure probability are obtained. The method can be widely used in existing finite element analysis programs, greatly reducing the number of finite element analyses needed and improving the efficiency of structural reliability analysis.

Evaluating the Dynamic Response of the Bridge-Vehicle System considering Random Road Roughness Based on the Moment Method

The bridge-vehicle interaction (BVI) system vibration is caused by the vehicles passing through the bridge. The road roughness has a great impact on the system vibration. In this regard, poor road roughness is known to affect the comfort of the vehicle crossing the bridge and aggravate the fatigue damage of the bridge. Road roughness is usually regarded as a random process in numerical calculation. To fully consider the influence of road roughness randomness on the response of the BVI system, a random BVI model was established. Thereafter, the random process of road roughness was expressed by Karhunen–Loeve expansion (KLE), after which the moment method was used to calculate the maximum probability value of the BVI system response. The proposed method has higher accuracy and efficiency than the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) calculation method. Subsequently, the influences of vehicle speed, roughness grade, and bridge span on the impact factor (IMF) were analyzed. The results show that the road roughness grade has a greater impact on the bridge IMF than the bridge span and vehicle speed.

An evaluation of Quasi-Moment-Method calibrated pathloss models for Benin City Nigeria

This paper introduces the Quasi-Moment-Method (QMM) as a novel radiowave propagation pathloss model calibration tool, and evaluates its performance, using field measurement data from different cellular mobile communication network sites in Benin City, Nigeria. The QMM recognizes the suitability of component parameters of existing basic models for the definition of ‘expansion’ and ‘testing functions’ in a Galerkin approach, and simulations were carried out with the use of a FORTRAN program developed by the authors, supported by matrix inversion in the MATLAB environment. Computational results reveal that in terms of both Root Mean Square (RMS) and Mean Prediction (MP) errors, QMM-calibrated models performed much better than an ‘optimum’ model reported for the NIFOR (Benin City), by a recent publication. As a matter of fact, the QMM-calibrated COST231 (rural area) model recorded reductions in RMS error of between 31.5% and 71% compared with corresponding metrics due to the aforementioned ‘optimum’ model. The simulation results also revealed that of the five basic models (COST231-rural area and suburban city, ECC33 (medium and large sized cities), and Ericsson models) utilized as candidates, the two ECC33 models, whose performances were consistently comparable, represented the best models for QMM-model calibration in the Benin City environments investigated.