The process of air transport liberalization in Colombia began in 1991. Liberalization entailed the entry of
private capital into the airport sector which subsequently led, in several temporary phases, to the privatization of the country’s
main airports. Simultaneously, new air operators entered the market. This new market situation, supported by the complete deregulation
of airfares, generated a dynamic and sustained growth of air transport in Colombia for two decades. Within the context of post-liberalization,
this article presents a forecast (medium-term – 5 years period) of air traffic in the country’s main airport using DLMs (Dynamic Linear Models).
It has the following advantages vs. the usual forecast calculation methodologies: it detects stochastic tendencies that are hidden in the time
series. It also detects structural changes that allow estimating the variable effect of exogenous shocks over time without increasing the number
of parameters. From the results obtained, it should be noted that the application of DLMs presents MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values
below 1%, which guarantees predictions of higher accuracy and thus introduces a new alternative model to develop reliable forecasts in air
transport, at least in the medium-term.
AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST IN POST-LIBERALIZATION CONTEXT: A DYNAMIC LINEAR MODELS APPROACH
