scholarly journals Convergence of linear threshold decision-making dynamics in finite heterogeneous populations

Automatica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 109063
Author(s):  
Pouria Ramazi ◽  
Ming Cao
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrisitiane Baumann ◽  
Samuel J. Gershman ◽  
Henrik Singmann ◽  
Bettina von Helversen

In many real life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making itnecessary to sequentially search through them, often without a chance to return to arejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that isabove a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicitdecision making strategies by humans vary but largely diverge from this optimalstrategy; the reasons for this divergence remain unknown. We present a new model ofhuman stopping decisions in sequential decision making tasks based on a linearthreshold heuristic. We show that the new model outperforms existing models forsequential decision making. Moreover, it accurately predicts participants’ search length,and how they adapt it to different environments. It thus provides an important steptowards understanding human sequential decision making.


2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (23) ◽  
pp. 12750-12755
Author(s):  
Christiane Baumann ◽  
Henrik Singmann ◽  
Samuel J. Gershman ◽  
Bettina von Helversen

In many real-life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making it necessary to search sequentially through them, often without a chance to return to a rejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that is above a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicit decision-making strategies by humans vary but largely diverge from this optimal strategy. The reasons for this divergence remain unknown. We present a model of human stopping decisions in sequential decision-making tasks based on a linear threshold heuristic. The first two studies demonstrate that the linear threshold model accounts better for sequential decision making than existing models. Moreover, we show that the model accurately predicts participants’ search behavior in different environments. In the third study, we confirm that the model generalizes to a real-world problem, thus providing an important step toward understanding human sequential decision making.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrisitiane Baumann ◽  
Henrik Singmann ◽  
Samuel J. Gershman ◽  
Bettina von Helversen

In many real life decisions, options are distributed in space and time, making itnecessary to search sequentially through them, often without a chance to return to arejected option. The optimal strategy in these tasks is to choose the first option that isabove a threshold that depends on the current position in the sequence. The implicitdecision making strategies by humans vary but largely diverge from this optimalstrategy. The reasons for this divergence remain unknown. We present a new model ofhuman stopping decisions in sequential decision making tasks based on a linearthreshold heuristic. The first two studies demonstrate that the linear threshold modelaccounts better for sequential decision making than existing models. Moreover, we showthat the model accurately predicts participants’ search behavior in differentenvironments. In the third study, we confirm that the model generalizes to a real-worldproblem, thus providing an important step towards understanding human sequentialdecision making.


2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (46) ◽  
pp. 12985-12990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pouria Ramazi ◽  
James Riehl ◽  
Ming Cao

Binary decisions of agents coupled in networks can often be classified into two types: “coordination,” where an agent takes an action if enough neighbors are using that action, as in the spread of social norms, innovations, and viral epidemics, and “anticoordination,” where too many neighbors taking a particular action causes an agent to take the opposite action, as in traffic congestion, crowd dispersion, and division of labor. Both of these cases can be modeled using linear-threshold–based dynamics, and a fundamental question is whether the individuals in such networks are likely to reach decisions with which they are satisfied. We show that, in the coordination case, and perhaps more surprisingly, also in the anticoordination case, the agents will indeed always tend to reach satisfactory decisions, that is, the network will almost surely reach an equilibrium state. This holds for every network topology and every distribution of thresholds, for both asynchronous and partially synchronous decision-making updates. These results reveal that irregular network topology, population heterogeneity, and partial synchrony are not sufficient to cause cycles or nonconvergence in linear-threshold dynamics; rather, other factors such as imitation or the coexistence of coordinating and anticoordinating agents must play a role.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Simen ◽  
Fuat Balcı

AbstractRahnev & Denison (R&D) argue against normative theories and in favor of a more descriptive “standard observer model” of perceptual decision making. We agree with the authors in many respects, but we argue that optimality (specifically, reward-rate maximization) has proved demonstrably useful as a hypothesis, contrary to the authors’ claims.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Danks

AbstractThe target article uses a mathematical framework derived from Bayesian decision making to demonstrate suboptimal decision making but then attributes psychological reality to the framework components. Rahnev & Denison's (R&D) positive proposal thus risks ignoring plausible psychological theories that could implement complex perceptual decision making. We must be careful not to slide from success with an analytical tool to the reality of the tool components.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Arceneaux

AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.


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