scholarly journals A mechanistic evolutionary model explains the time-dependent pattern of substitution rates in viruses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahan Ghafari ◽  
Peter Simmonds ◽  
Oliver G. Pybus ◽  
Aris Katzourakis
2015 ◽  
Vol 89 (7) ◽  
pp. 3512-3522 ◽  
Author(s):  
You-Yu Lin ◽  
Chieh Liu ◽  
Wei-Hung Chien ◽  
Li-Ling Wu ◽  
Yong Tao ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTThe evolutionary rates of hepatitis B virus (HBV) estimated using contemporary sequences are 102to 104times higher than those derived from archaeological and genetic evidence. This discrepancy makes the origin of HBV and the time scale of its spread, both of which are critical for studying the burden of HBV pathogenicity, largely unresolved. To evaluate whether the dual demands (i.e., adaptation within hosts and colonization between hosts) of the viral life cycle affect this conundrum, the HBV quasispecies dynamics within and among hosts from a family consisting of a grandmother, her 5 children, and her 2 granddaughters, all of whom presumably acquired chronic HBV through mother-to-infant transmission, were examined by PCR cloning and next-generation sequencing methods. We found that the evolutionary rate of HBV between hosts was considerably lower than that within hosts. Moreover, the between-host substitution rates of HBV decreased as transmission numbers between individuals increased. Both observations were due primarily to changes at nonsynonymous rather than synonymous sites. There were significantly more multiple substitutions than expected for random mutation processes, and 97% of substitutions were changed from common to rare amino acid residues in the database. Continual switching between colonization and adaptation resulted in a rapid accumulation of mutations at a limited number of positions, which quickly became saturated, whereas substitutions at the remaining regions occurred at a much lower rate. Our study may help to explain the time-dependent HBV substitution rates reported in the literature and provide new insights into the origin of the virus.IMPORTANCEIt is known that the estimated hepatitis B virus (HBV) substitution rate is time dependent, but the reason behind this observation is still elusive. We hypothesize that owing to the small genome size of HBV, transmission between hosts and adaptation within hosts must exhibit high levels of fitness trade-offs for the virus. By studying the HBV quasispecies dynamics for a chain of sequentially infected transmissions within a family, we found the HBV substitution rate between patients to be negatively correlated with the number of transmissions. Continual switching between hosts resulted in a rapid accumulation of mutations at a limited number of genomic sites, which quickly became saturated in the short term. Nevertheless, substitutions at the remaining regions occurred at a much lower rate. Therefore, the HBV substitution rate decreased as the divergence time increased.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahan Ghafari ◽  
Peter Simmonds ◽  
Oliver G Pybus ◽  
Aris Katzourakis

AbstractMolecular clock dating is widely used to estimate timescales of phylogenetic histories and to infer rates at which species evolve. One of the major challenges with inferring rates of molecular evolution is the observation of a strong correlation between estimated rates and the timeframe of their measurements. Recent empirical analysis of virus evolutionary rates suggest that a power-law rate decay best explains the time-dependent pattern of substitution rates and that the same pattern is observed regardless of virus type (e.g. groups I-VII in the Baltimore classification). However there exists no explanation for this trend based on molecular evolutionary mechanisms. We provide a simple predictive mechanistic model of the time-dependent rate phenomenon, incorporating saturation and host constraints on the evolution of some sites. Our model recapitulates the ubiquitous power-law rate decay with a slope of −0.65 (95% HPD: −0.72, −0.52) and can satisfactorily account for the variation in inferred molecular evolutionary rates over a wide range of timeframes. We show that once the saturation of sites starts - typically after hundreds of years in RNA viruses and thousands of years in DNA viruses - standard substitution models fail to correctly estimate divergence times among species, while our model successfully re-creates the observed pattern of rate decay. We apply our model to re-date the diversification of genotypes of hepatitis C virus (HCV) to 396,000 (95% HPD: 326,000 - 425,000) years before present, a time preceding the dispersal of modern humans out of Africa, and also showed that the most recent common ancestor of sarbecoviruses dates back to 23,500 (95% HPD: 21,100 - 25,300) years ago, nearly thirty times older than previous estimates. This not only creates a radical new perspective for our understanding the origins of HCV but also suggests a substantial revision of evolutionary timescales of other viruses can be similarly achieved.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel G. B. Johnson

AbstractZero-sum thinking and aversion to trade pervade our society, yet fly in the face of everyday experience and the consensus of economists. Boyer & Petersen's (B&P's) evolutionary model invokes coalitional psychology to explain these puzzling intuitions. I raise several empirical challenges to this explanation, proposing two alternative mechanisms – intuitive mercantilism (assigning value to money rather than goods) and errors in perspective-taking.


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