Quantifying how multiple ecosystem services and functions are affected
by different drivers of Global Change is challenging. Particularly in
African savanna regions, highly integrated land-use activities created a
landscape mosaic with flows of multiple resources between land use
types. A framework is needed that quantifies the effects of climate
change, management and policy interventions on ecosystem services that
are most relevant for rural communities, such as provision of food,
feed, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling and natural pest control.
In spite of progress made in ecosystem modelling, data availability and
stakeholder interactions, these elements have neither been brought
together in an integrated framework, nor evaluated in the context of
real-world problems. Here, we propose and outline such framework as
developed by a multi-disciplinary research network, the Southern African
Limpopo Landscapes network (SALLnet). Components of the framework such
as the crop model APSIM and the vegetation model aDGVM2 had already been
parameterized and evaluated using data sets from savanna regions of
eastern, western and southern Africa, and were fine-tuned using novel
data sets from Limpopo. A prototype of an agent-based farm household
model was developed using comprehensive farm survey information from the
Limpopo Province of South Africa. A first test of the functionality of
the integrated framework has been performed for alternative policy
interventions on smallholder crop-livestock systems. We discuss the
versatile applicability of the framework, with a focus on smallholder
landscapes in the savanna regions of southern Africa that are considered
hotspots of global change impacts.
Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change