scholarly journals The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A global VAR approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 100769
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Faryna ◽  
Heli Simola
Keyword(s):  
Global Var ◽  
International Shocks

scholarly journals The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (256) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vargas ◽  
Daniela Hess
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Global Var ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.

scholarly journals Structural change in industrial output: China 1995-2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. Albala-Bertrand
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Crisis ◽  
Set Up ◽  
International Shocks

Purpose The aim of this paper is to learn about some patterns of sectoral and industrial structural change of the Chinese economy over the 1995-2010 period, which also complements a previous paper of the author. The chosen period is about (and conveniently) bounded by two international crises: the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997 and the world crisis that started in 2007/2008. Design/methodology/approach To such a purpose, this paper set up a quantitative methodology via input-output modelling, which allows us to decompose gross output into some key demand sources or contributions. These are then analyzed over the full period. Findings It can be shown that the trajectory of the main structural patterns over the period was not smooth and was pretty unbalanced and that they generally responded to both domestic policy and international shocks. Export demand and heavy industry appeared to be the main engines of the economy, which showed massive increases in their share of output, at the expense of domestic demand, services and agriculture. Despite the high growth rates over this period, the Chinese economy seemed to be in need of rebalancing, which seems to have started toward the end of the authors’ period. Originality/value The decomposition method has been applied before by the author and others, but the variations in this paper are original, just as original is the application to China (never been done before), which in addition is not confined to two or so snapshots separated by many years, as is the usual use, but to the full year-after-year change of the sectoral and industrial structure over this study’s focus period.

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