scholarly journals Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru: Historic Events and Current Susceptibility

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2664
Author(s):  
Jan Baťka ◽  
Vít Vilímek ◽  
Eva Štefanová ◽  
Simon J. Cook ◽  
Adam Emmer
Keyword(s):  
Ice Age ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Dam Breach ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
High Resolution Satellite Images ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Dam Overtopping

The aim of this paper is to create a glacial lake inventory for the Cordillera Huayhuash in Peru and to evaluate the susceptibility of lakes to the generation of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Using high-resolution satellite images, we undertook qualitative and quantitative analysis of lake type, characteristics and distribution, and placed our findings within the context of existing Peru-wide lake inventories. We also mapped and analyzed past GLOFs, revealing a total of 10 GLOFs and 4 ambiguous events, most of which have not been reported before. We found that past GLOFs usually occurred as a result of moraine dam breach during the proglacial stage of lake evolution. Further, we used our lake inventory to evaluate GLOF susceptibility of all lakes larger than 20,000 m2. Of 46 evaluated lakes, only two lakes (Lake Tsacra and Lake W014) are currently susceptible to generating a GLOF, which would most likely be through dam overtopping resulting from a flood originating in smaller lakes located upstream. The future perspectives of lake evolution and implications for GLOF hazard management are discussed in light of the post-Little Ice Age glacier ice loss as well as in the context of extensive related research undertaken in the nearby Cordillera Blanca.

scholarly journals GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 813-827 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer
Keyword(s):  
Web Of Science ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Published Research

Abstract. Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) – specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups – is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979–2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

scholarly journals GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research of glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer
Keyword(s):  
Web Of Science ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Published Research

Abstract. Research of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) – specific low frequency, high magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jokulhlaups – is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierised areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, a comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979–2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on: (i) where GLOFs are studied; (ii) who studies GLOFs; (iii) the export of research on GLOFs; and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends are discussed and placed in a broader context.

scholarly journals Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Jeffrey S. Kargel ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
John Reynolds ◽  
Dan H. Shugar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Glacier Recession ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Moraine Dam Failure

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste and many have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the collapse of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and their regularity – rather unexpectedly – has declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

scholarly journals New method for assessing the potential hazardousness of glacial lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 2391-2439 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Emmer ◽  
V. Vilímek
Keyword(s):  
Slope Movement ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Flood Wave ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Cordillera Blanca ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood ◽  
Dam Overtopping

Abstract. This paper presents a new and easily repeatable objective method for assessing the potential hazardousness of glacial lakes within the Peruvian region of Cordillera Blanca (excluding ice-dammed lakes, which do not reach significant volumes in this region). The presented method was designed to meet four basic principles, which we considered as being crucial. These are: (a) principle of regional focus; (b) principle of objectivity; (c) principle of repeatability; and (d) principle of multiple results. Potential hazardousness is assessed based on a combination of decision trees for clarity and numerical calculation for objectivity. A total of seventeen assessed characteristics are used, of which seven have yet to be used in this context before. Also, several ratios and calculations are defined for the first time. We assume that it is not relevant to represent the overall potential hazardousness of a particular lake by one result (number), thus the potential hazardousness is described in the presented method by five separate results (representing five different glacial lake outburst flood scenarios). These are potentials for: (a) dam overtopping resulting from a dynamic slope movement into the lake; (b) dam overtopping following the flood wave originating in a lake situated upstream; (c) dam failure resulting from a dynamic slope movement into the lake; (d) dam failure following the flood wave originating in a lake situated upstream; and (e) dam failure following a heavy earthquake. All of these potentials theoretically range from 0 to 1. The presented method was verified on the basis of assessing the pre-flood conditions of seven lakes which have produced ten glacial lake outburst floods in the past and ten lakes which have not. A comparison of these results showed that the presented method successfully identifies the potentially hazardous lakes.

scholarly journals 160 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across the Tropical Andes since the Little Ice Age

2021 ◽  
pp. 103722
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Joanne L. Wood ◽  
Simon J. Cook ◽  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Ryan Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Tropical Andes ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

scholarly journals Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1195-1209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Jeffrey S. Kargel ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
John Reynolds ◽  
Dan H. Shugar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Glacier Recession ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Moraine Dam Failure

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future

Geomorphology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 365 ◽  
pp. 107178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Martin Mergili ◽  
Simon Allen ◽  
Holger Frey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Cordillera Blanca ◽  
Lake Evolution ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Can a dam type of an alpine lake be derived from lake geometry? A negative result

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 614-621
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Vojtěch Cuřín
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Dam Breach ◽  
Geometrical Properties ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Dammed Lake ◽  
Dam Overtopping ◽  
Qualitative Characteristics

AbstractGlacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent one of the most serious hazard and risk in deglaciating high mountain regions worldwide and the need for GLOF hazard and risk assessment is apparent. As a consequence, numerous region- and nation-wide GLOF assessment studies have been published recently. These studies cover large areas and consider hundreds to thousands of lakes, prioritizing the hazard posed by them. Clearly, certain simplification is required for executing such studies, often resulting in neglecting qualitative characteristics which would need manual assignment. Different lake dam types (e.g., bedrock-dammed, moraine-dammed) are often not distinguished, despite they control GLOF mechanism (dam overtopping/dam breach) and thus GLOF magnitude. In this study, we explore the potential of easily measurable quantitative characteristics and four ratios to approximate the lake dam type. Our dataset of 851 lakes of the Cordillera Blanca suggests that while variances and means of these characteristics of individual lake types differ significantly (F-test, t-test), value distribution of different geometrical properties can’t be used for the originally proposed purpose along the spectra. The only promising results are obtained for extreme values (selected bins) of the ratios. For instance, the low width to length ratio indicates likely moraine-dammed lake while the high value of ratio indicating round-shape of the lake indicates increased likelihood of bedrock-dammed lake. Overall, we report a negative result of our experiment since there are negligible differences of relative frequencies in most of the bins along the spectra.

scholarly journals The Top-Viewed Cryosphere Videos on YouTube: An Overview

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Vojtěch Cuřín ◽  
Jan Daněk ◽  
Helena Duchková ◽  
Petr Krpec
Keyword(s):  
Information Source ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Scientific Disciplines ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Qualitative Characteristics

Youtube.com has become one of the most popular places to share videos on the Internet, storing a large amount of audiovisual materials. People all over the world can upload their videos and watch videos of others. The research potential of this information source has received increasing popularity across scientific disciplines. In this contribution, we explore the top viewed videos containing selected cryospheric keywords, both general (cryosphere, glacier, ice, permafrost, snow), and specific, focusing on different types of cryospheric hazards (avalanche, blizzard and glacial lake outburst flood/jokulhlaup). Searching 100 top-viewed videos for each keyword, our database consists of 859 videos. Each video is described by several qualitative characteristics (e.g., video type, geographical focus) as well as quantitative characteristics (e.g., views per day, likes). A total of 310 videos in our database (36.1% of all) are classified as videos with factual cryospheric content. We show that the broader audience represented by YouTube users is particularly interested in videos capturing dynamic processes such as calving of glaciers. While videos found for general cryosphere keywords have attracted a generally higher attention of YouTube users (total views), videos found for specific keywords are ranked among the most liked. Further, we analyze where the videos with cryospheric content are filmed, revealing several hotspots for different keywords located in all continents except for Africa. Finally, we discuss the potentials of cryosphere videos for educational and research purposes, pointing out that videos filmed by incidental witnesses of low-frequency processes such as glacial lake outburst floods might contribute to the elucidation of their dynamics, magnitude and behavior as well as the occurrence in space and time.

scholarly journals Numerical modelling of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using physically based dam-breach models

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 477-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Westoby ◽  
J. Brasington ◽  
N. F. Glasser ◽  
M. J. Hambrey ◽  
J. M. Reynolds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Development ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Hydrodynamic Modelling ◽  
Dam Breach ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Physically Based

Abstract. The rapid development and instability of moraine-dammed proglacial lakes is increasing the potential for the occurrence of catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in high-mountain regions. Advanced, physically-based numerical dam-breach models represent an improvement over existing methods for the derivation of breach outflow hydrographs. However, significant uncertainty surrounds the initial parameterisation of such models, and remains largely unexplored. We use a unique combination of numerical dam-breach and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling, employed with a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework to quantify the degree of equifinality in dam-breach model output for the reconstruction of the failure of Dig Tsho, Nepal. Monte Carlo analysis was used to sample the model parameter space, and morphological descriptors of the moraine breach were used to evaluate model performance. Equifinal breach morphologies were produced by parameter ensembles associated with differing breach initiation mechanisms, including overtopping waves and mechanical failure of the dam face. The material roughness coefficient was discovered to exert a dominant influence over model performance. Percentile breach hydrographs derived from cumulative distribution function hydrograph data under- or overestimated total hydrograph volume and were deemed to be inappropriate for input to hydrodynamic modelling. Our results support the use of a Total Variation Diminishing solver for outburst flood modelling, which was found to be largely free of numerical instability and flow oscillation. Routing of scenario-specific optimal breach hydrographs revealed prominent differences in the timing and extent of inundation. A GLUE-based method for constructing likelihood-weighted maps of GLOF inundation extent, flow depth, and hazard is presented, and represents an effective tool for communicating uncertainty and equifinality in GLOF hazard assessment. However, future research should focus on the utility of the approach for predictive, as opposed to reconstructive GLOF modelling.

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