Comparison of the predictive value of ten risk scores for outcomes of atrial fibrillation patients undergoing radiofrequency pulmonary vein isolation

AIMS: Pre-procedural identification of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who will remain free from AF after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) remains challenging. Clinical risk scores, including CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, R2CHADS2, and HATCH scores show modest discriminative ability with respect to AF recurrence. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is associated with risk for AF and AF recurrence but is not currently included in existing AF risk scores. We sought to evaluate the incremental benefit of adding pre-operative BNP to existing risk scores in predicting AF recurrence within 6-months after PVI. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and fifty one patients (105 men, age 60 ± 10 years) with paroxysmal or persistent AF underwent an index PVI procedure between 2010-2014. Seventy-seven patients had an AF recurrence (51%) over the 6-month follow-up period. BNP level of >100 units was significantly associated with 6-month AF recurrence in univariate models (p<0.001). A composite risk score including BNP to the existing scores significantly improved their predictive value and net AF recurrence reclassification (net reclassification index, 63.4%; p<0.001) (Table 1). CONCLUSIONS: Addition of BNP to existing AF risk scores enhanced their predictive value and discriminative ability in predicting AF recurrence after PVI. Further research is needed including large and diverse cohorts of patients undergoing ablation and monitored for AF recurrence over extended periods to further validate the performance of this composite score.

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Predictive value of ten risk scores for outcomes of atrial fibrillation patients undergoing radiofrequency pulmonary vein isolation

EP Europace ◽

10.1093/europace/euab116.231 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (Supplement_3) ◽

Author(s):

MJ Mulder ◽

MJB Kemme ◽

LHGA Hopman ◽

E Kusgozoglu ◽

H Gulcicek ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Pulmonary Vein ◽

Pulmonary Vein Isolation ◽

Roc Curve ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Risk Scores ◽

Adverse Event Rate ◽

Af Ablation ◽

Procedural Complications ◽

Af Recurrence

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background/Introduction: A significant number of patients experience recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) after ablation. Predicting who will or will not benefit from AF ablation is challenging. Although various risk scores have been designed to predict outcomes after AF ablation, comparative data are sparse and external risk score validation is often lacking. Purpose In this study, we aimed to compare ten previously described risk scores with regard to their predictive value for post-ablation AF recurrence and procedural complications. Methods A total of 482 AF patients (37% non-paroxysmal AF, 66% male, mean age 62 ± 9 years) undergoing initial radiofrequency pulmonary vein isolation (RF-PVI) were included in the present analysis. Prior to ablation, all patients underwent both transthoracic echocardiography and either cardiac computed tomography imaging or cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The following risk scores were calculated for each patient: APPLE, ATLAS, BASE-AF2, CAAP-AF, CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, DR-FLASH, HATCH, LAGO and MB-LATER. The predictive performance of the risk scores for AF recurrence and complications were assessed separately by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results Median follow-up was 16 (12-31) months. AF recurrence after the 90-day blanking period was observed in 199 patients (41%), occurring after a median of 183 (124-360) days after ablation. Overall procedural adverse event rate was 6%. The HATCH score was the only score without predictive value for recurrent AF after ablation (area under curve [AUC] 0.545). All other investigated scores demonstrated statistically significant but poor predictive value for recurrent AF after ablation (AUC 0.553-0.669). CHA2DS2-VASc and CAAP-AF were the only risk scores with predictive value for procedural complications (AUC 0.616, p = 0.043; AUC 0.615, p = 0.044; respectively). ROC curve analyses of the studied risk scores for the prediction of AF recurrence and complications are shown in Figure. Conclusion Currently available risk scores perform poorly in predicting outcomes after RF-PVI. These data suggest that the utility of these scores for clinical decision-making is limited. Abstract Figure. ROC curve analyses of risk scores

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