The composite risk index based on frailty predicts postoperative complications in older patients recovering from elective digestive tract surgery: a retrospective cohort study

Background Limitations exist in available studies investigating effect of preoperative frailty on postoperative outcomes. This study was designed to analyze the association between composite risk index, an accumulation of preoperative frailty deficits, and the risk of postoperative complications in older patients recovering from elective digestive tract surgery. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study. Baseline and perioperative data of older patients (age ≥ 65 years) who underwent elective digestive tract surgery from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2018 were collected. The severity of frailty was assessed with the composite risk index, a composite of frailty deficits including modified frailty index. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of postoperative complications during hospital stay. The association between the composite risk index and the risk of postoperative complications was assessed with a multivariable logistic regression model. Results A total of 923 patients were included. Of these, 27.8% (257) developed postoperative complications. Four frailty deficits, i.e., modified frailty index ≥0.27, malnutrition, hemoglobin < 90 g/L, and albumin ≤30 g/L, were combined to generate a composite risk index. Multivariable analysis showed that, when compared with patients with composite risk index of 0, the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 2.408 (1.714–3.383, P < 0.001) for those with a composite risk index of 1, 3.235 (1.985–5.272, P < 0.001) for those with a composite risk index of 2, and 9.227 (3.568–23.86, P < 0.001) for those with composite risk index of 3 or above. The area under receiver-operator characteristic curve to predict postoperative complications was 0.653 (95% confidence interval 0.613–0.694, P < 0.001) for composite risk index compared with 0.622 (0.581–0.663, P < 0.001) for modified frailty index. Conclusion For older patients following elective digestive tract surgery, high preoperative composite risk index, a combination of frailty deficits, was independently associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications.

Reward – and threat – related neural function associated with depression

The focus of this podcast is on the recently published JCPP paper ‘Reward- and threat-related neural function associated with risk and presence of depression in adolescents: a study using a composite risk score in Brazil’, co-authored by Dr. Johnna Swartz.

Analytical validation of a multi-biomarker algorithmic test for prediction of progressive kidney function decline in patients with early-stage kidney disease

Background The KidneyIntelX™ test applies a machine learning algorithm that incorporates plasma biomarkers and clinical variables to produce a composite risk score to predict a progressive decline in kidney function in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). The following studies describe the analytical validation of the KidneyIntelX assay including impact of observed methodologic variability on the composite risk score. Methods Analytical performance studies of sensitivity, precision, and linearity were performed on three biomarkers assayed in multiplexed format: kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR-1) and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-2 (sTNFR-2) based on Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidelines. Analytical variability across twenty (20) experiments across multiple days, operators, and reagent lots was assessed to examine the impact on the reproducibility of the composite risk score. Analysis of cross-reactivity and interfering substances was also performed. Results Assays for KIM-1, sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2 demonstrated acceptable sensitivity. Mean within-laboratory imprecision coefficient of variation (CV) was established as less than 9% across all assays in a multi-lot study. The linear range of the assays was determined as 12–5807 pg/mL, 969–23,806 pg/mL and 4256–68,087 pg/mL for KIM-1, sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2, respectively. The average risk score CV% was less than 5%, with 98% concordance observed for assignment of risk categories. Cross-reactivity between critical assay components in a multiplexed format did not exceed 1.1%. Conclusions The set of analytical validation studies demonstrated robust analytical performance across all three biomarkers contributing to the KidneyIntelX risk score, meeting or exceeding specifications established during characterization studies. Notably, reproducibility of the composite risk score demonstrated that expected analytical laboratory variation did not impact the assigned risk category, and therefore, the clinical validity of the reported results.

An Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment PRA Methodology in the Optimization of CO2 Injection Well Locations for CO2 Storage Development Plan, Offshore Malaysia

A depleted gas field in the Sarawak basin, offshore Malaysia, was selected as a candidate geological site for CO2 storage. The selection and design for the CO2 injection well locations are an important decision making in the business planning, which involved a complicated risk assessment system covering subsurface and surface integration. The objective in this paper is to apply the probabilistic risk assessment method in the optimization of CO2 injection well locations for the CO2 storage development plan. Risk comes from uncertainty, so the workflow with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology includes: 1) the risk identification and sensitivity analysis: the definition of uncertainty elements; 2) the risk analysis: the uncertainty ranges and distributions; and 3) Risk evaluation: including the individual element and composite risk evaluation. Similar to risk matrix method, two parameters used: 1) the likelihood (Pi) of occurrence of each consequence, expressed by the percentile of a threshold; and 2) the severity magnitude (Ii) of the possible adverse consequences, expressed by the coefficient of variation. The total risk is the sum of the products of Pi and Ii, displayed on the risk map. The workflow and methodology were applied in a depleted gas reservoir for CO2 storage. The main elements identified for uncertainty analysis include: 1) structural model including the top of reservoir depth and internal reservoir zonation; 2) reservoir parameters based on porosity and permeability; 3) fluid contacts. Combing all possible cases for each element, a number of scenarios of reservoir models were constructed, which are the foundation of risk evaluation. Risk score, expressed by probability, was calculated by all elements, generating a composite risk probability map, where there are different risk levels at different locations. Combining with engineering constraints, the CO2 injection well locations were selected by optimization, avoiding the area with high risk.

Impacts of hemoglobin levels and platelet counts on clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: oral anticoagulant use for patients with anemia and/or thrombocytopenia

Background Hemoglobin (Hgb) levels and platelet (PLT) counts have beeen associated with adverse clinical outcomes in some patients with cardiovascular conditions. We aimed to assess the risks of clinical events among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in relation to Hgb levels and PLT counts. Second, we investigated clinical outcomes on warfarin or non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) compared to no oral anticoagulant use (non-OAC), in different Hgb and PLT strata. Methods We used medical data from a multi-center healthcare system in Taiwan which included 37,074 AF patients. Patients were categorized into 3 groups based on their Hgb levels and PLT counts: Group 1 (Hgb&gt;10g/dL and PLT&gt;100K/uL; n=29,147), Group 2 (Hgb&lt;10g/dL or PLT&lt;100K/uL; n=7,078) and Group 3 (Hgb&lt;10g/dL and PLT&lt;100K/uL; n=849). Patients in each category were further stratified as 3 groups according to their stroke prevention strategies; that is, non-OAC, warfarin or NOACs. Results A higher Hgb level and/or PLT count was associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (IS/SE), but lower risks of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and major bleeding. The composite risks of IS/SE, ICH and major bleeding were higher in Group 3 or Group 2, compared to Group 1 (6.75%/yr versus 6.41%/yr versus 4.13%/yr). Compared to non-OACs, the use of warfarin was not associated with a lower composite risk of IS/SE, ICH and major bleeding in the 3 groups. NOACs were associated with a lower composite risk in Group 1 (aHR 0.68, 95% CI 0.60–0.76) and Group 2 (aHR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53–0.99), but was non-significant in Group 3 (aHR 0.73, 95% CI 0.17–3.07) (Figure). The net clinical benefits were consistently positive in different weight models, in favor of NOAC use, in Group 2 and its subgroups with either anemia or thrombocytopenia. Conclusions AF patients with anemia and/or thrombocytopenia were a high-risk population. Compared to no OAC use, NOACs were associated with significantly better clinical outcomes for patients with advanced anemia (Hgb&lt;10g/dL) or thrombocytopenia (PLT&lt;100K/uL), but not for those with both conditions. Harms or benefits of NOACs should be carefully evaluated and balanced in this population. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Longitudinal assessment between lifestyle-related risk factors and a composite cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk index among adolescents in Malaysia

The study aims to create a composite risk index of CVD among adolescents and examine the influence of demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle-related risk factors on the composite risk index of biological CVD risk factors among adolescents in Malaysia. A Malaysian adolescent cohort of 1320 adolescents were assessed at 13, 15 and 17 years. Seven biological CVD risk factors with moderate correlation were identified, standardized and averaged to form a composite CVD risk index. Generalised estimating equation using longitudinal linear regression was used to examine the effects of changes in adolescent lifestyle-related risk factors on the composite CVD risk index over time. From the ages 13 to 17 years, physical fitness (β = − 0.001, 90% CI = − 0.003, 0.00002) and BMI (β = 0.051, 95% CI = 0.042, 0.060) were significant predictors of attaining high scores of CVD risk. Female (β = 0.118, 95% CI = 0.040, 0.197), Chinese (β = 0.122, 95% CI = 0.006, 0.239), Indians (β = − 0.114, 95% CI = − 0.216, − 0.012) and adolescents from rural schools (β = 0.066, 95% CI = − 0.005, 0.136) were also found to be considerably significant. A more robust and gender-specific intervention programme focusing on healthy lifestyle (including achieving ideal BMI and improving physical fitness) need to be implemented among school-going adolescents.