Critical country-level determinants of death rate during Covid-19 pandemic

ABSTRACTObjectiveWe aimed to identify the country-level determinants of the severity of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignAn ecological study design of publicly available data was employed. Countries reporting >25 COVID-related deaths until 08/06/2020 were included. The outcome was log mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential determinants assessed were most recently published demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, median age, average body mass index, smoking prevalence), Economic parameters (Gross Domestic Product per capita); environmental parameters: pollution levels, mean temperature (January-May)), co-morbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer), health system parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10,000 population); international arrivals, the stringency index, as a measure of country-level response to COVID-19, BCG vaccination coverage, UV radiation exposure and testing capacity. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data.Primary OutcomeCountry-level mean mortality rate: the mean slope of the COVID-19 mortality curve during its ascending phase.ParticipantsThirty-seven countries were included: Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States.ResultsOf all country-level predictors included in the multivariable model, total number of international arrivals (beta 0.033 (95% Confidence Interval 0.012,0.054)) and BCG vaccination coverage (−0.018 (−0.034,-0.002)), were significantly associated with the mean death rate.ConclusionsInternational travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel should be considered to control COVID outbreak and prevent related deaths.ARTICLE SUMMARYStrengths and limitationsA comparable and relevant outcome variable quantifying country-level increases in the COVID-19 death rate was derived which is largely independent of different testing policies adopted by each countryOur multivariable regression models accounted for public health and economic measures which were adopted by each country in response to the COVID-19 pandemic by adjusting for the Stringency IndexThe main limitation of the study stems from the ecological study design which does not allow for conclusions to be drawn for individual COVID-19 patientsOnly countries that had reported at least 25 daily deaths over the analysed period were included, which reduced our sample and consequently the power.

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COVID-19 case-fatality rate and demographic and socioeconomic influencers: worldwide spatial regression analysis based on country-level data

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043560 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. e043560 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Yang Cao ◽

Ayako Hiyoshi ◽

Scott Montgomery

Keyword(s):

Death Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Spatial Regression ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Country Level ◽

Level Data ◽

Testing Policies

ObjectiveTo investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) globally.DesignPublicly available register-based ecological study.SettingTwo hundred and nine countries/territories in the world.ParticipantsAggregated data including 10 445 656 confirmed COVID-19 cases.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCOVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate were calculated using country-level data from the Our World in Data website.ResultsThe average of country/territory-specific COVID-19 CFR is about 2%–3% worldwide and higher than previously reported at 0.7%–1.3%. A doubling in size of a population is associated with a 0.48% (95% CI 0.25% to 0.70%) increase in COVID-19 CFR, and a doubling in the proportion of female smokers is associated with a 0.55% (95% CI 0.09% to 1.02%) increase in COVID-19 CFR. The open testing policies are associated with a 2.23% (95% CI 0.21% to 4.25%) decrease in CFR. The strictness of anti-COVID-19 measures was not statistically significantly associated with CFR overall, but the higher Stringency Index was associated with higher CFR in higher-income countries with active testing policies (regression coefficient beta=0.14, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.27). Inverse associations were found between cardiovascular disease death rate and diabetes prevalence and CFR.ConclusionThe association between population size and COVID-19 CFR may imply the healthcare strain and lower treatment efficiency in countries with large populations. The observed association between smoking in women and COVID-19 CFR might be due to the finding that the proportion of female smokers reflected broadly the income level of a country. When testing is warranted and healthcare resources are sufficient, strict quarantine and/or lockdown measures might result in excess deaths in underprivileged populations. Spatial dependence and temporal trends in the data should be taken into account in global joint strategy and/or policy making against the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Association between consumption of fermented vegetables and COVID-19 mortality at a country level in Europe

10.1101/2020.07.06.20147025 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Susana C Fonseca ◽

Ioar Rivas ◽

Dora Romaguera ◽

Marcos Quijal ◽

Wienczyslawa Czarlewski ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Death Rate ◽

Missing Values ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Fermented Milk ◽

Point Estimate ◽

Fermented Foods ◽

Country Level ◽

Ecological Association ◽

Fermented Vegetables ◽

Over Dispersion

AbstractBackgroundMany foods have an antioxidant activity and nutrition may mitigate COVID-19. Some of the countries with a low COVID-19 mortality are those with a relatively high consumption of traditional fermented foods. To test the potential role of fermented foods in COVID-19 mortality in Europe, we performed an ecological study.MethodsThe European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database was used to study the country consumption of fermented vegetables, pickled/marinated vegetables, fermented milk, yoghurt and fermented sour milk. We obtained the COVID-19 mortality per number of inhabitants from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. EuroStat data were used for data on potential confounders at the country level including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (2019), population density (2018), percentage of people older than 64 years (2019), unemployment rate (2019) and percentage obesity (2014, to avoid missing values). Mortality counts were analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression models - with log of population as an offset - to model the death rate while accounting for over-dispersion.ResultsOf all the variables considered, including confounders, only fermented vegetables reached statistical significance with the COVID-19 death rate per country. For each g/day increase in the average national consumption of fermented vegetables, the mortality risk for COVID-19 decreased by 35.4% (95% CI: 11.4%, 35.5%). Adjustment did not change the point estimate and results were still significant.DiscussionThe negative ecological association between COVID-19 mortality and consumption of fermented vegetables supports the a priory hypothesis previously reported. The hypothesis needs to be tested in individual studies performed in countries where the consumption of fermented vegetables is common.

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Robustness and bias of European excess death estimates in 2020 under varying model specifications

10.1101/2021.06.04.21258353 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jonas Schöley

Keyword(s):

Death Rate ◽

Cross Validation ◽

European Countries ◽

Rate Model ◽

Causal Interpretation ◽

Excess Death ◽

Country Level ◽

Death Count ◽

Excess Deaths

Various procedures are in use to calculate excess deaths during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Using weekly death counts from 20 European countries, we evaluate the robustness of excess death estimates to the choice of model for expected deaths and perform a cross-validation analysis to assess the error and bias in each model's predicted death counts. We find that the different models produce very similar patterns of weekly excess deaths but disagree substantially on the level of excess. While the exact country ranking along percent excess death in 2020 is sensitive to the choice of model the top and bottom ranks are robustly identified. On the country level, the 5-year average death rate model tends to produce the lowest excess death estimates, whereas high excess deaths are produced by the popular 5-year average death count and Euromomo-style Serfling models. Cross-validation revealed these estimates to be biased under a causal interpretation of "expected deaths had COVID-19 not happened."

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Determinants of COVID-19 Case and Death Rates: An Ecological Study

10.22541/au.162327686.69399175/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christopher El Mouhayyar ◽

Luke T. Jaber ◽

Matthias Bergmann ◽

Bertrand Jaber

Keyword(s):

Human Development ◽

Population Health ◽

Death Rate ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Level Population ◽

Death Rates ◽

Development Indicators ◽

Country Level ◽

Case Rate

Introduction: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a variable worldwide impact, likely related to country-level characteristics. In this ecological study, we explored the association of COVID-19 case rates (per 100,000 people) and death rates (per 100,000 people) with country-level population health characteristics, economic and human development indicators, and habitat-related variables. Methods: To calculate country-level COVID-19 case and death rates, the number of cases and deaths were extracted from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center for 2020. Country-level population health characteristics, economic and human development indicators, and habitat-related variables were extracted from several publicly available online sources of international organizations. Results were tabulated according to world zones and country economies. Univariate and multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to examine determinants of COVID-19 case rates and death rates. Results: A total of 187 countries and territories were analyzed, with an aggregate COVID-19 case rate of 779 per 100,000 people, a death rate of 19 per 100,000 people, and a case-fatality rate of 2.4%. For country-level population health characteristics, a higher percentage rate of adults with obesity and a higher percentage rate of adults with high blood pressure was independently associated with a higher COVID-19 case rate, and a higher percentage rate of adults with obesity was associated with a higher COVID-19 death rate. For country-level economic and human development indicators, only a higher gross domestic product percentage rate spent on total health expenditure and a higher human development index was independently associated with a higher COVID-19 case rate and death rate. A higher percentage of urban population was independently associated with a higher COVID-19 death rate, whereas a higher income per capita was independently associated with a lower COVID-19 death rate. For country-level habitat-related variables, a higher average household size and a higher percentage rate of population with primary reliance on polluting fuels and technologies was independently associated with a lower COVID-19 case rate and death rate whereas a higher percentage rate of households with at least one-member age 65 years or over was associated with a higher case rate and death rates. Conclusion: This ecological study informs the need to develop country-specific public health interventions to better target populations at high risk for COVID-19, and test environmental interventions to prevent indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2, taking into consideration population health characteristics, economic and human development indicators, and habitat-related variables that are unique to each country.

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Association between consumption of vegetables and COVID-19 mortality at a country level in Europe

10.1101/2020.07.17.20155846 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Susana C Fonseca ◽

Ioar Rivas ◽

Dora Romaguera ◽

Marcos Quijal-Zamorano ◽

Wienczyslawa Czarlewski ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Death Rate ◽

Missing Values ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

A Priori ◽

Point Estimate ◽

Country Level ◽

Brassica Vegetables ◽

Ecological Association ◽

Over Dispersion ◽

Head Cabbage

Background Many foods have an antioxidant activity, and nutrition may mitigate COVID-19. To test the potential role of vegetables in COVID-19 mortality in Europe, we performed an ecological study. Methods The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database was used to study the country consumption of Brassica vegetables (broccoli, cauliflower, head cabbage (white, red and savoy cabbage), leafy brassica) and to compare them with spinach, cucumber, courgette, lettuce and tomato. The COVID-19 mortality per number of inhabitants was obtained from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. EuroStat data were used for potential confounders at the country level including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (2019), population density (2018), percentage of people over 64 years (2019), unemployment rate (2019) and percentage of obesity (2014, to avoid missing values). Mortality counts were analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression models to model the death rate while accounting for over-dispersion. Results Of all the variables considered, including confounders, only head cabbage and cucumber reached statistical significance with the COVID-19 death rate per country. For each g/day increase in the average national consumption of some of the vegetables (head cabbage and cucumber), the mortality risk for COVID-19 decreased by a factor of 11, down to 13.6 %. Lettuce consumption increased COVID-19 mortality. The adjustment did not change the point estimate and the results were still significant. Discussion The negative ecological association between COVID-19 mortality and the consumption of cabbage and cucumber supports the a priori hypothesis previously reported. The hypothesis needs to be tested in individual studies performed in countries where the consumption of vegetables is common.

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