scholarly journals Robustness and bias of European excess death estimates in 2020 under varying model specifications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Schöley
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Rate Model ◽  
Causal Interpretation ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Excess Deaths

Various procedures are in use to calculate excess deaths during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Using weekly death counts from 20 European countries, we evaluate the robustness of excess death estimates to the choice of model for expected deaths and perform a cross-validation analysis to assess the error and bias in each model's predicted death counts. We find that the different models produce very similar patterns of weekly excess deaths but disagree substantially on the level of excess. While the exact country ranking along percent excess death in 2020 is sensitive to the choice of model the top and bottom ranks are robustly identified. On the country level, the 5-year average death rate model tends to produce the lowest excess death estimates, whereas high excess deaths are produced by the popular 5-year average death count and Euromomo-style Serfling models. Cross-validation revealed these estimates to be biased under a causal interpretation of "expected deaths had COVID-19 not happened."

Excess mortality from COVID and non-COVID causes in minority populations

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (39) ◽  
pp. e2101386118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Cronin ◽  
William N. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Hispanic Males ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Life Years Lost ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Excess Deaths

The 2020 US mortality totaled 2.8 million after early March, which is 17.3% higher than age-population–weighted mortality over the same time interval in 2017 to 2019, for a total excess death count of 413,592. We use data on weekly death counts by cause, as well as life tables, to quantify excess mortality and life years lost from both COVID-19 and non–COVID-19 causes by race/ethnicity, age, and gender/sex. Excess mortality from non–COVID-19 causes is substantial and much more heavily concentrated among males and minorities, especially Black, non-Hispanic males, than COVID-19 deaths. Thirty-four percent of the excess life years lost for males is from non–COVID-19 causes. While minorities represent 36% of COVID-19 deaths, they represent 70% of non–COVID-19 related excess deaths and 58% of non–COVID-19 excess life years lost. Black, non-Hispanic males represent only 6.9% of the population, but they are responsible for 8.9% of COVID-19 deaths and 28% of 2020 excess deaths from non–COVID-19 causes. For this group, nearly half of the excess life years lost in 2020 are due to non–COVID-19 causes.

scholarly journals Evaluation of death count estimates for Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis R Santos ◽  
Jeffrey T. Howard
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Initial Estimate ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Estimation Process ◽  
Climate Disasters ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Excess Deaths

This descriptive finding examines estimates of death counts following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico for September and October 2017. We evaluate the monthly death count estimates and estimates of excess deaths in Puerto Rico based on historical patterns of variability by month for the 2010-2016 and published official death counts for 2017. Official death records from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics Systems by month and year (2010-2016) were used to produce means and 95% confidence intervals (95% C.I.) for each month. Death count and excess death estimates for September and November 2017 are employed to: (1) illustrate the estimation process and (2) assess the accuracy of these estimates when compared to official death counts for the same period. Estimates produced with incomplete information were 2,987 (95% C.I. 2,900-3,074) and 3,043 (95% C.I. 2,995-3,091) for September and October 2017, respectively. Corresponding official death counts for the same months for 2017 were 2,928 and 3,040. Using estimated death counts, 1,085 excess deaths (95% C.I. 950-1,220) were estimated in November 2017. Using official counts yielded 1,023 excess deaths (95% C.I. 956-1,090). Despite initially overestimating the number of deaths in September and October by 1.04%, subsequent estimate of excess deaths using official death counts was within the 95% C.I. of the initial estimate. Our findings demonstrate the timely production of death count estimates following climate disasters using historical death records and a thorough study of previous experiences.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility to Predict Regional Excess Death in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuellar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Obie Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and medium-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice, one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, the first date the data is available). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected. Specifically, individuals in the age groups younger than 20, we found have their death rate reduced during the pandemic between 22% and 27% of the expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess death shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases the excess death and more novel, we found that an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior, increases the number of excess deaths.

scholarly journals Post-Hurricane Vital Statistics Expose Fragility of Puerto Rico’s Health System

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolando J. Acosta ◽  
Rafael A. Irizarry
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Health System ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Unnecessary Death ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractImportanceHurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017. As recently as May of this year (2018), the official death count was 64. After a study describing a household survey reported a much higher death count estimate, as well as evidence of population displacement, extensive loss of services, and a prolonged death rate the government released death registry data. These newly released data will permit a better understanding of the effects of this hurricane.ObjectiveProvide a detailed description of the effects on mortality of Hurricane Maria and compare to other hurricanes.DesignWe fit a statistical model to mortality data that accounts for seasonal and non-hurricane related yearly effects. We then estimated the deviation from the expected death rate as a function of time.SettingWe fit this model to 1985-2018 Puerto Rico daily data, which includes the dates of hurricanes Hugo, Georges, and Maria, 2015-2018 Florida daily data, which includes the dates of Hurricane Irma, 2002-2004 Louisiana monthly data, which includes the date of Hurricane Katrina, and 2000-2016 New Jersey monthly data, which includes the date of Hurricane Sandy.ResultsWe find a prolonged increase in death rate after Maria and Katrina, lasting at least 207 and 125 days, resulting in excess deaths estimates of 3,400 (95% CI, 3,100-3,700), and 1,800 (95% CI, 1,600-2100) respectively, showing that Maria had a more long term damaging impact. Surprisingly, we also find that in 1998, Georges had a comparable impact to Katrina’s with a prolonged increase of 106 days resulting in 1,400 (95% CI, 1,200-1,700) excess deaths. For Hurricane Maria, we find sharp increases in a small number of causes of deaths, including diseases of the circulatory, endocrine and respiratory system, as well as bacterial infections and suicides.Conclusion and RelevanceOur analysis suggests that since at least 1998, Puerto Rico’s health system has been in a precarious state. Without a substantial intervention, it appears that if hit with another strong hurricane, Puerto Ricans will suffer the unnecessary death of hundreds of its citizens.Key PointsQuestion: How does the effect of Hurricane Maria on mortality in Puerto Rico compare to the effect of other hurricanes in Puerto Rico and other United States jurisdictions?Findings: We estimate about 3,000 excess deaths after Maria, a higher toll than Katrina. Only other comparable effect was after Georges, also in Puerto Rico. For Georges and Maria, we observe a prolonged death rate increase of more than 10% lasting several months. The causes of death that increased after Maria are consistent with a collapsed health systemMeaning: Puerto Rico’s health system does not appear to be ready to withstand another strong hurricane.

scholarly journals Excess mortality in Europe and Serbia during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-73
Author(s):  
Ivan Marinkovic ◽  
Marko Galjak
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
The North ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Excess Deaths

The 2020 pandemic came at a huge demographic cost, particularly regarding the increase in mortality. In this paper we examine excess deaths in Serbia and 34 other European countries in 2020. Methodological inconsistencies and big differences in how COVID-19 deaths were recorded across different countries make it difficult to make any cross-country comparisons, even with the scope limited only to Europe. Since the number of total deaths is a methodologically solid indicator, we looked at the differences between the total number of deaths in 2020 and compared that to deaths in 2019. The lowest increase in mortality - below 5% - occurred in countries in the north of Europe (Norway, Denmark, Finland, Latvia), while the highest increase - over 18% - was recorded in the southern and central parts of the continent (Albania, Northern Macedonia, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Slovenia, Russia). There is no clear geographical regularity. In 2020, Serbia had 12.6% more deaths compared to 2019, which was close to the European average. Within Serbia, statistical differences between regions were not large. Measuring the contribution of COVID-19 deaths to excess mortality is much more problematic. The excess death ratio is more helpful for understanding methodological and data-gathering issues than finding evidence about composition and divergence in mortality. According to this indicator (based on preliminary data), only 25% of excess deaths in Serbia in 2020 were caused by COVID-19, while the European average was 54%. However, in many (primarily Eastern European) countries in 2020, the indirect consequences of COVID-19 on the health of the population were more significant than the direct ones. It is precisely the ratio of COVID-19 diagnoses that led to death in total mortality that shows this. The final results may confirm this statement or indicate potential data manipulation. While this paper focuses only on the year 2020, as of Q1 of 2021, the pandemic is not nearing its end. Based on preliminary data published daily, Serbia had more COVID-19 deaths in the first four months of 2021 than for the whole of 2020. This indicates that the consequences of the pandemic for Serbia will be dire in 2021, regardless of the course the pandemic takes.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuéllar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractCOVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

Central and Eastern European states in global production linkages: country-level and sector-level analysis

2017 ◽  
pp. 38-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa Cieślik
Keyword(s):  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Large Share ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Western European ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Level Analysis

The paper evaluates Central and Eastern European countries’ (CEEs) location in global vertical specialization (global value chains, GVCs). To locate each country in global value chains (upstream or downstream segment/market) and to compare them with the selected countries, a very selective methodology was adopted. We concluded that (a) CEE countries differ in the levels of their participation in production linkages. Countries that have stronger links with Western European countries, especially with Germany, are more integrated; (b) a large share of the CEE countries’ gross exports passes through Western European GVCs; (c) most exporters in Central and Eastern Europe are positioned in the downstream segments of production rather than in the upstream markets. JEL classification: F14, F15.

scholarly journals Relationship between MODIS Derived NDVI and Yield of Cereals for Selected European Countries

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 340
Author(s):  
Ewa Panek ◽  
Dariusz Gozdowski
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Using Data

In this study, the relationships between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained based on MODIS satellite data and grain yield of all cereals, wheat and barley at a country level were analyzed. The analysis was performed by using data from 2010–2018 for 20 European countries, where percentage of cereals is high (at least 35% of the arable land). The analysis was performed for each country separately and for all of the collected data together. The relationships between NDVI and cumulative NDVI (cNDVI) were analyzed by using linear regression. Relationships between NDVI in early spring and grain yield of cereals were very strong for Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia. This means that the yield prediction for these countries can be as far back as 4 months before the harvest. The increase of NDVI in early spring was related to the increase of grain yield by about 0.5–1.6 t/ha. The cumulative of averaged NDVI gives more stable prediction of grain yield per season. For France and Belgium, the relationships between NDVI and grain yield were very weak.

scholarly journals Using excess deaths and testing statistics to determine COVID-19 mortalities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Böttcher ◽  
Maria R. D’Orsogna ◽  
Tom Chou
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Biased Sampling ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractFactors such as varied definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population and the number of infection-caused deaths need to be consistently estimated for comparing mortality across regions. We combine historical and current mortality data, a statistical testing model, and an SIR epidemic model, to improve estimation of mortality. We find that the average excess death across the entire US from January 2020 until February 2021 is 9$$\%$$ % higher than the number of reported COVID-19 deaths. In some areas, such as New York City, the number of weekly deaths is about eight times higher than in previous years. Other countries such as Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Spain exhibit excess deaths significantly higher than their reported COVID-19 deaths. Conversely, we find statistically insignificant or even negative excess deaths for at least most of 2020 in places such as Germany, Denmark, and Norway.

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