Topography as a determinant of bird distribution in secondary Atlantic Forest fragments

The spatial distribution of Neotropical birds at local scales is often associated with plant successional stages and unique microhabitats such as bamboo stands and treefall gaps. Only 15% of the Atlantic Forest remains, yet this habitat is home to more than 200 endemic birds. Understanding the distribution of bird species within the Atlantic Forest can improve the test of ecological hypotheses related to habitat use and habitat selection. This study analyses the distribution of birds among different types of relief (lowlands, ravines, hillsides, and hilltops) in 41 forest fragments of different sizes (1 to 384.5 ha) within the Atlantic Forest, south east Brazil. The presence and absence data were analysed with dynamic occupancy models to determine the influence of area and topography in the distribution of bird species. Of the 169 species detected, we were able to estimate an occupancy probability of 67. Among them, relief type was an important variable for 26 species (39%). Most species showed a preference for lowlands and ravines, and some showed an association of combinations of these two reliefs with hillsides and hilltops. These preferences might be related to distribution of preferred food, nesting microhabitats, and thermoregulation. For the endemic and threatened Atlantic Forest mountain birds, the ecological association with areas of relief is a strong, and previously unsuspected, spatial distribution pattern. Our results suggest that the ecology and distribution of birds in tropical forests across hilly regions could be better understood if topography is considered. This pattern should be better investigated among other taxa in tropical forests.

Exceptionally preserved hyolithids from the middle Cambrian of North China

Hyoliths are extinct enigmatic organisms of early lophotrochozoan affinity known globally from the Palaeozoic Era and were especially diverse and abundant in the Cambrian Period. However, the commonly incomplete preservation of hyolith exoskeletons and our limited knowledge of their soft anatomy makes their ecological and biological aspects unclear. Konservat-Lagerstätte are crucial windows to unlock the mysteries of hyoliths. Here we report a new occurrence of exceptionally preserved hyolithid hyoliths from the middle Cambrian Mantou Formation (Miaolingian, Wuliuan) in Shandong Province, North China. The preserved soft organs of the new species Novakotheca weifangensis sp. nov. include a U-shaped gut and possible pharynx, oesophagus, stomach and digestive gland, which provide significant new information for the reconstruction of the digestive system of hyolithids. Two taphonomic modes of hyoliths described herein are recognized: soft tissue preservation through pyritization and three-dimensional shell preservation through phosphatization. Morphological variations due to different preservational pathways in the same species are revealed, highlighting the taphonomic bias on taxonomy. The ecological association between hyoliths and small brachiopod epibionts is a direct example of species interactions, providing insights into the ecological structures and adaptability of early animals during Cambrian time.

Ups and Downs of the Italian Locust (Calliptamus italicus L.) Populations in the Siberian Steppes: On the Horns of Dilemmas

The Italian locust is a common species and one of the most important pest in the steppes, semi-deserts, and deserts of Central and Southwestern Asia and also in the Mediterranean Region. The aim of this paper is to discuss some problems arising from studies of eco-geographical distribution and long-term dynamics of this species, especially in the southern part of West Siberia, and their consequences for management of pest species and rare forms. Peculiarities of the Italian locust populations’ distribution and long-term dynamics are discussed for the north-eastern part of the species range (south-eastern West Siberian Plain, North-East and, partly, East Kazakhstan). Notable differences between local populations are revealed. Some issues arising from results of insecticide experimental treatments (mainly effectiveness of barrier applications with different compounds in variable environment) and ecological association between the Italian locust and rare Orthoptera are also discussed. Some suggestions as to requirements for improved monitoring, supervision, control, and forecasting of the Italian locust populations’ distribution and dynamics are also provided.

Evaluating Hypothetical Scenarios of Evolution, Ecology and Adaptation

This chapter discusses how the methods for testing theories of cospeciation are not well suited to test coevolutionary theories of ecological association, adaptation, and more loosely constrained patterns of host association. It is, nonetheless, desirable to evaluate such theories in a rigorous historical context. Indeed, the ability to use the results of cladistic analyses to evaluate ecological and adaptational theories represents a truly powerful application of the method. This area of inquiry has become a standard approach in contemporary phylogenetic research, to the extent that one's chances of publishing a study in a high-profile journal may be diminished if the tree is not couched as a test of such a hypothesis. Within the cladistic framework, two interrelated approaches to evaluating adaptational hypotheses have been proposed: mapping and optimization. The chapter then describes methodological approaches that are best suited to extrinsic data, but which also apply to the optimization of heritable traits that were not part of an analysis. The rationale is based on the desire to provide an independent test of theories about the evolution or association of attributes within individual lineages when there is no straightforward way to produce a hierarchic scheme for those attributes.

Aggregate-level Lead Exposure and Child Maltreatment

The purpose of this study was to examine the possible ecological association between aggregate blood lead levels (BLL) and rates of child maltreatment. To this end, we employed an ecologic study design, analyzing results from 59,645 child BLL tests between the years 1996 and 2007, and 6,640 substantiated maltreatment investigations from 2006 to 2016 in a large Midwest city. Separate Bayesian spatial Poisson conditional autoregressive (CAR) and Bayesian spatial zero-inflated Poisson CAR models were used to predict the occurrence of maltreatment. Bivariate results showed that aggregate rates of maltreatment increased as aggregate BLL increased. Multivariate results showed that medium-exposure BLL census tracts (OR = 1.38) and high-exposure BLL tracts (OR = 1.38) had increased odds of substantiated investigations for any maltreatment compared to low BLL census tracts even after controlling for crime rates, age of the housing stock, and concentrated disadvantage. Our findings, considered with prior research, continue to reveal a confluence of deleterious outcomes in areas where exposure to lead seems elevated. In this case, child maltreatment also appears to represent a macro-level correlate of aggregate lead exposure. Yet our results preclude any causal inference, and further research on the intersection of child maltreatment with environmental toxins is needed to determine if contaminant abatement should be considered as a possible maltreatment prevention strategy.

Response to the “letter to the editor” by Sani Rachman Soleman et al., “spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition at the prefecture level in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents”

We thank Sani Rachman Soleman et al. for three specific points of criticism concerning our investigation of the ecological association between low birth weight (LBW) and radioactive contamination in Japan after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accidents: Ecological variables are not justified enough to adjust potential confounding. The spatiotemporal regression model does not consider temporal reduction in radiation dose rate. Dose-response plot between dose rates and odds ratios overestimates R2and underestimates p-value. This criticism is a good starting point to explain some of the technical backgrounds of our approach in more detail.

Thank Martin Luther that ciprofloxacin could cure your gonorrhoea? Ecological association between Protestantism and antimicrobial consumption in 30 European countries

Background: Higher consumption of antimicrobials plays an important role in driving the higher prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in Southern compared to Northern Europe. Poor controls on corruption (CoC), high uncertainty avoidance (UA) and performance vs. cooperation orientation (POCO) of societies have been found to explain much of this higher consumption in Southern European countries. We hypothesized that these predictors were in turn influenced by the Protestant Reformation in the 16th century onwards. Methods: We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to assess the relationships between country-level proportions being Protestant, CoC, UA, POCO and four markers of antimicrobial consumption in the community (all antibacterials, cephalosporin, macrolides and fluoroquinolones). Results: The proportion of a country that was Protestant was negatively correlated with the consumption of all antibacterials. SEM revealed that UA predicted all antibacterial consumption (direct effect coef. 0.15, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.04-0.26). The proportion Protestant exerted an indirect effect on consumption (coef. -0.13, 95% CI -0.21- -0.05). This effect was mediated predominantly via its effect on UA (direct effect coef. 0.15, 95% CI 0.04-0.26). The model explained 37% of the variation in consumption. Similar results were obtained for each of the other three classes of antimicrobials investigated. Conclusions: Our results are compatible with the theory that contemporary differences in antimicrobial consumption in Europe stem in part from cultural differences that emerged in the Reformation. These findings may explain the differential efficacy of similar antibiotic stewardship campaigns in Northern and Southern European populations.

Association between consumption of vegetables and COVID-19 mortality at a country level in Europe

Background Many foods have an antioxidant activity, and nutrition may mitigate COVID-19. To test the potential role of vegetables in COVID-19 mortality in Europe, we performed an ecological study. Methods The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database was used to study the country consumption of Brassica vegetables (broccoli, cauliflower, head cabbage (white, red and savoy cabbage), leafy brassica) and to compare them with spinach, cucumber, courgette, lettuce and tomato. The COVID-19 mortality per number of inhabitants was obtained from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. EuroStat data were used for potential confounders at the country level including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (2019), population density (2018), percentage of people over 64 years (2019), unemployment rate (2019) and percentage of obesity (2014, to avoid missing values). Mortality counts were analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression models to model the death rate while accounting for over-dispersion. Results Of all the variables considered, including confounders, only head cabbage and cucumber reached statistical significance with the COVID-19 death rate per country. For each g/day increase in the average national consumption of some of the vegetables (head cabbage and cucumber), the mortality risk for COVID-19 decreased by a factor of 11, down to 13.6 %. Lettuce consumption increased COVID-19 mortality. The adjustment did not change the point estimate and the results were still significant. Discussion The negative ecological association between COVID-19 mortality and the consumption of cabbage and cucumber supports the a priori hypothesis previously reported. The hypothesis needs to be tested in individual studies performed in countries where the consumption of vegetables is common.

Association between consumption of fermented vegetables and COVID-19 mortality at a country level in Europe

BackgroundMany foods have an antioxidant activity and nutrition may mitigate COVID-19. Some of the countries with a low COVID-19 mortality are those with a relatively high consumption of traditional fermented foods. To test the potential role of fermented foods in COVID-19 mortality in Europe, we performed an ecological study.MethodsThe European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database was used to study the country consumption of fermented vegetables, pickled/marinated vegetables, fermented milk, yoghurt and fermented sour milk. We obtained the COVID-19 mortality per number of inhabitants from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. EuroStat data were used for data on potential confounders at the country level including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (2019), population density (2018), percentage of people older than 64 years (2019), unemployment rate (2019) and percentage obesity (2014, to avoid missing values). Mortality counts were analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression models - with log of population as an offset - to model the death rate while accounting for over-dispersion.ResultsOf all the variables considered, including confounders, only fermented vegetables reached statistical significance with the COVID-19 death rate per country. For each g/day increase in the average national consumption of fermented vegetables, the mortality risk for COVID-19 decreased by 35.4% (95% CI: 11.4%, 35.5%). Adjustment did not change the point estimate and results were still significant.DiscussionThe negative ecological association between COVID-19 mortality and consumption of fermented vegetables supports the a priory hypothesis previously reported. The hypothesis needs to be tested in individual studies performed in countries where the consumption of fermented vegetables is common.