A Bayesian tolerance interval estimation method for fatigue strength substantiation of rotorcraft dynamic components

2016 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 333-344
Author(s):  
Sam Dekker ◽  
Georg Wurzel ◽  
René Alderliesten
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atser Damsma ◽  
Nadine Schlichting ◽  
Hedderik van Rijn ◽  
Warrick Roseboom

In interval timing experiments, motor reproduction is the predominant method used when participants are asked to estimate an interval. However, it is unknown how its accuracy, precision and efficiency compare to alternative methods, such as indicating the duration by spatial estimation on a timeline. In two experiments, we compared different interval estimation methods. In the first experiment, participants were asked to reproduce an interval by means of motor reproduction, timeline estimation, or verbal estimation. We found that, on average, verbal estimates were more accurate and precise than line estimates and motor reproductions. However, we found a bias towards familiar whole second units when giving verbal estimates. Motor reproductions were more precise, but not more accurate than timeline estimates. In the second experiment, we used a more complex task: Participants were presented a stream of digits and one target letters and were subsequently asked to reproduce both the interval to target onset and the duration of the total stream by means of motor reproduction and timeline estimation. We found that motor reproductions were more accurate, but not more precise than timeline estimates. In both experiments, timeline estimates had the lowest reaction times. Overall, our results suggest that the transformation of time into space has only a relatively minor cost. In addition, they show that each estimation method comes with its own advantages, and that the choice of estimation method depends on choices in the experimental design: for example, when using durations with integer durations verbal estimates are superior, yet when testing long durations, motor reproductions are time intensive making timeline estimates a more sensible choice.


Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Hisham M. Almongy ◽  
Ehab M. Almetwally ◽  
Randa Alharbi ◽  
Dalia Alnagar ◽  
E. H. Hafez ◽  
...  

This paper is concerned with the estimation of the Weibull generalized exponential distribution (WGED) parameters based on the adaptive Type-II progressive (ATIIP) censored sample. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), maximum product spacing (MPS), and Bayesian estimation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been determined to find the best estimation method. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the three methods of estimation based on the ATIIP-censored sample, and also, we made a bootstrap confidence interval estimation. We will analyze data related to the distribution about single carbon fiber and electrical data as real data cases to show how the schemes work in practice.


2014 ◽  
Vol 602-605 ◽  
pp. 167-171
Author(s):  
Yong Zhuang Yuan

The fatigue behavior of notch specimens has been investigated in this manuscript. It is shown that notch geometric size has apparent effect for fatigue strength of specimens. The blunt notch is used in test. It is concluded that geometric size effect depends on the stress gradient and can be estimated with the help of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. The influence of notch size for fatigue strength can be explained with geometric factor. The plastic strain play an important role in fatigue crack initiation with notch gets sharper reach certain magnitude limit, and fatigue strength is lower than the predicted by geometric size factor effect. The method does not apply fatigue strength of the sharper notch. Another estimation method shall be used to that kind of notches.


2006 ◽  
Vol 168 (2) ◽  
pp. 520-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Jack Chen ◽  
W. David Kelton

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Zhi-yong Zhou ◽  
Jian-ming Qi ◽  
Yang Yang

In view of the lack of objective data support for product evaluation methods in the industry, a triangular verification method was proposed; it considered nursing beds as the study object and combined subjective evaluation with eye movement and electroencephalogram. Because the triangular validation method is based on the numerical value between the indicators and the frequency of ranking, this method is worth investigating for analyzing experimental data more scientifically. This paper focuses on the further analysis of the experimental data, especially the use of interval estimation method. After analysis, we obtain that proposal 2 is the optimal solution. This method is more suitable for product evaluation which will collect large amount of experimental data to obtain more accurate results. For industrial product designers, the evaluation of products by users is very important. In the design stage, how to grasp the user’s evaluation of the product more accurately is a difficult problem. This paper takes nursing bed as the research object and studies the user participation design in order to make the product more acceptable to most people after it is launched.


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