Managerial optimism and investment decision in the UK

Author(s):  
Eman El-Gebeily ◽  
Cherif Guermat ◽  
Vasco Vendrame
Author(s):  
Vasileios A. Mantogiannis ◽  
Fotios A. Katsigiannis

Investment decisions in private real-estate demand the consideration of several qualitative and quantitative criteria, as well as the different or even conflicting interests of the participating stakeholders. Meanwhile, certain indicators are subject to severe uncertainty, which will eventually alter the expected outcome of the investment decision. Even though multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques have been extensively used in real-estate investment appraisals, there is limited evidence from the private rented sector, which constitutes a large part of the existing real estate assets. The existing approaches are not designed to capture the inherent variability of the decision environment, and they do not always achieve a consensus among the participating actors. In this work, through a rigorous literature review, we were able to identify a comprehensive list of assessment criteria, which were further validated through an iterative Delphi-based consensus-making process. The selected criteria were then used to construct an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model evaluating four real world, real estate investment alternatives from the UK private rented market. The volatility of the financial performance indicators was grasped through several Monte Carlo simulation runs. We tested the described solution approach with preference data obtained by seven senior real estate decision-makers. Our computational results suggest that financial performance is the main group of selection criteria. However, the sensitivity of the outcome indicates that location and property characteristics may greatly affect real estate investment decisions.


Subject The project to build a new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point. Significance Reports that construction of the planned nuclear power station at Hinkley Point may be postponed will raise further concerns about the project's prospects as well as the long-term direction of the UK electricity sector. The reports follow weeks of debate in the United Kingdom and France over whether construction should go ahead and over further delays in the final investment decision on the project (now scheduled for May). Impacts Depending on how the French government decides to support EDF, approval by the European Commission may be needed. The Austrian government has legally challenged the Commission's approval of UK plans to support the project. The UK government's existing plans for maintaining electricity supply -- the so-called 'capacity auctions' -- may need to be revisited.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 410-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvydas Jadevicius ◽  
Simon Hugh Huston

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction. Design/methodology/approach The study employs a novel approach to dissect cycles in a form of a three-step algorithm. First, the Hodrick-Prescott de-trends the selected variables. Second, volatility (measured by the variance) screens periods of atypical fluctuations in the series. Finally, the series is regressed against its past values to assess the level of persistence. The sequential steps screen the length of the cycles in UK commercial property market to facilitate interpretation. Findings The estimates suggest that UK commercial property market follows an eight-year cycle. Combined modelling results indicate that the current market trend is likely to change over the coming year. The modelling suggests increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017. Practical implications This updated appreciation of the UK commercial property cycle duration allows for better market timing and investment decision making. Originality/value The paper adds additional evidence on the contested issue of UK commercial property cycle duration.


2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vida Maliene ◽  
Steponas Deveikis ◽  
Louise Kirsten ◽  
Naglis Malys

The development of leisure as an economic activity has come into focus over the last century. Nowadays, a commercial leisure property has gained an important role within the total spectrum of world economies. Despite these developments in the leisure sector, the valuation of property for the purpose of commercial leisure is still regarded as an Achilles’ heel. The accepted approach to the property valuation in UK is to perform an open market valuation for the existing use. However, for the specialized properties including leisure assets, the distinctive valuation methodology has to be applied. This paper outlines the principles of methodology that are commonly used for the valuation of leisure property in the UK, Lithuania and other countries. Factors affecting the valuation process with respect to the property development and investment decision are discussed. The study is accompanied with examples of valuation method applications and analyses of individual case studies of golf course valuation. Santruka Per pastaraji šimtmeti laisvalaikio vystymas tapo reikšminga ekonomikos veiklos sritis. Šiuo metu laisvalaikio verslo nekilnojamasis turtas vaidina svarbu vaidmeni pasaulio šaliu ūkineje veikloje. Nepaisant laisvalaikio sektoriaus išsivystymo, nekilnojamojo turto vertinimas laisvalaikio verslo srityje vis dar yra silpnas. JK priimtas nekilnojamojo turto vertinimo būdas pagristas atviros rinkos vertinimu pagal turto paskirti. Tačiau specializuotam nekilnojamajam turtui, taip pat ir laisvalaikio, išskirtinis vertinimo metodas turi būti taikomas. Šiame straipsnyje apibūdinami principai, kurie taikomi laisvalaikio nekilnojamojo turto vertinimui JK, Lietuvoje ir kitose šalyse. Straipsnyje nagrinejami veiksniai, kurie daro itaka vertinimo procesui, kai nekilnojamasis turtas vertinamas vystymo ar investavimo tikslais. Tyrime pateikti golfo aikštynu vertinimo metodu ir analizes pavyzdžiai.


2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Adan ◽  
Franz Fuerst

Purpose – Improving the energy efficiency of the existing residential building stock has been identified as a key policy aim in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to review the extant literature on investment decisions in domestic energy efficiency and presents a model that is both grounded in microeconomic theory and empirically tractable. Design/methodology/approach – This study develops a modified and extended version of an existing microeconomic model to embed the retrofit investment decision in a residential property market context, taking into account tenants’ willingness to pay and cost-reducing synergies. A simple empirical test of the link between energy efficiency measures and housing market dynamics is then conducted. Findings – The empirical data analysis for England indicates that where house prices are low, energy efficiency measures tend to increase the value of a house more in relative terms compared to higher-priced regions. Second, where housing markets are tight, landlords and sellers will be successful even without investing in energy efficiency measures. Third, where wages and incomes are low, the potential gains from energy savings make up a larger proportion of those incomes compared to more affluent regions. This, in turn, acts as a further incentive for an energy retrofit. Finally, the UK government has been operating a subsidy scheme which allows all households below a certain income threshold to have certain energy efficiency measures carried out for free. In regions, where a larger proportion of households are eligible for these subsidies,the authors also expect a larger uptake. Originality/value – While the financial metrics of retrofit measures are by now well understood, most of the existing studies tend to view these investments in isolation, not as part of a larger bundle of considerations by landlords and owners of how energy retrofits might influence a property’s rent, price and appreciation rate. In this paper, the authors argue that establishing this link is crucial for a better understanding of the retrofit investment decision.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-135
Author(s):  
Mark Mulgrew ◽  
Mulgrew Reynolds

A fundamental aspect of good corporate governance is the protection of shareholders and their investments. These stakeholders are now demanding increasing levels of transparency in all aspects of business with a greater emphasis being placed on non-financial information for investment decision making. While the majority prior research has examined the corporate governance practices of the firm, research investigating the actual disclosure of corporate governance practice is scarce. This study contributes to this debate by providing exploratory evidence on the levels of corporate governance disclosure quality and compliance in a sample of 40 UK listed firms throughout the period 2002 to 2009. Findings report a notable increase in disclosure quality and compliance over this period with the greatest increase occurring from 2002 to 2004/05 and suggest that firms are responding to calls from investors.


2010 ◽  
Vol 211 ◽  
pp. R1-R2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell

The downturn in global economic activity that started in 2008 was turned into a major recession after the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. It appears that world output fell by more than 1 per cent in 2009, and OECD output probably fell by around 3½ per cent. The effects on output were more marked in the Euro Area and the UK than they were in the US or Canada, which partly reflects the policy responses chosen by Treasuries and Central Banks. The financial crisis that drove the recession affected banks in the US, the UK, the Euro Area and the rest of Europe rather more than it did those in Canada, Australia and Japan. However, recessions have been common, with only Australia and Poland appearing to avoid them. The financial crisis led rapidly to a freezing of trade credit, which caused world trade to decline very sharply at the beginning of 2009. The financial crisis also led to an increase in risk premia in investment decision-making and hence to a decline in the equilibrium capital output ratio, which caused a sharp reduction in the demand for capital goods. Combined with credit rationing effects for firms needing access to borrowing, this induced a collapse in investment. Trade channels made the crisis global, as did movements in exchange rates. Interest rates were cut sharply in the US, Europe and Japan, and approached levels seen in Japan for the previous decade. As a result the yen appreciated strongly, and the combination of the effects of this appreciation on competitiveness and the decline in investment goods trade meant that Japan suffered worse than most other countries, at least in the short term.


2021 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. 20001
Author(s):  
James Dyrda ◽  
Richard Morrison

The twin unit EPR construction at Hinkley Point C is the first nuclear new build project to be undertaken in the UK in a generation. Moreover, it is now the country’s only new reactor project still in progress. The station’s two 1650 MWe plants [1] will complement the UK’s decarbonisedm energy mix with addition of approximately 7% of the current national requirement. In 2019, less than three years from the final investment decision, the ‘J0’ milestone was reached. This represents the end of the preparatory works, including all the common raft nuclear island concrete for Unit 1, enabling the upwards erection of the reactor containment and other support buildings. In addition to this, important milestones such as launch of the first tunnel boring machine, to tunnel the Unit 1 sea-water intake pipe have all been achieved. Over the coming years, the project will need to evolve in order to meet the increasing complexity and multi-organisation scope, which will present a challenging delivery environment. In order to support this, a UK-based Design Authority works on review, verification and acceptance of the HPC design including its UK specificities. This allows NNB, as licensee, to own its design and prepare the pre-commissioning safety case and operational strategies, defensible to the relevant UK regulators. As an example, this paper presents the roles and responsibilities in the Reactor Technology Team. This small, flexible team is involved in technical oversight of all aspects of the fuel & core design, through normal operations, anticipated and design-basis faults, severe accidents and radiological consequence estimation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-227
Author(s):  
Rukonge S. Muhongo ◽  
Angela Khanali Mutsotso

With large crude oil consumers and investors like China, France, the USA, the UK, and Italy being the biggest victims of the COVID-19, it is clear that the pandemic will have further ramifications on the foreign direct investment in nascent energy resource-rich countries. This chapter conducts a case study of Kenya and Tanzania, two countries harboring ports that are the gateway of the East African region to larger markets such as Asia and Europe. Tanzania was still negotiating an agreement with gas companies to construct its LNG infrastructure; while Kenya was finalising its environmental assessments for upstream and midstream and planning to reach a final investment decision in 2020. Both country's plans have been altered due to the pandemic, and stakeholders have to innovate on how best to engage in the sector and protect it from such uncertain shocks. This paper is an insight into the current situation and how the drivers of energy law can facilitate legal frameworks to absorb such uncertain events in the future.


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