In this paper, we investigate the length of retirement in a less developed economy with large public pension program, Brazil. We analyze the evolution of labor force participation and retirement since 1979 and estimate the expected length of retirement from 1979 to 2098 for both males and females. We use a stochastic model (Lee-Carter) to forecast labor force participation rates. Combining these estimates to UN mortality forecasts. We estimate the expected length of retirement. We find a steady decline in the labor force participation of young adults and elderly over time, mostly due to access to education and public pension programs, whereas for females we observed a constant increase for the prime-age women. Our findings also indicate that the expected length of retirement might increase from 10% to over 20% of Brazilian working lives, as people leave the labor force at early ages and live longer lives.
The Evolution of the Elderly Labor Force Participation and Retirement in Brazil