scholarly journals Quality assessment between calibrated highway safety manual safety performance functions and calibration functions for predicting crashes on freeway facilities

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imalka C. Matarage ◽  
Sunanda Dissanayake
Keyword(s):  
Quality Assessment ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions

Calibration of the Highway Safety ManualGiven Safety Performance Functions for RuralMultilane Segments and Intersections in Kansas

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syeda Rubaiyat Aziz ◽  
Sunanda Dissanayake
Keyword(s):  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Crash Prediction ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Satisfactory Level ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Predictive Methods

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides models and methodologies for safety evaluation and prediction of safety performance of various types of roadways. However, predictive methods in the HSM are of limited use if they are not calibrated for local conditions. In this study, calibration procedures given in the HSM were followed for rural segments and intersections in Kansas. Results indicated that HSM overpredicts fatal and injury crashes and underpredicts total crashes on rural multilane roadway segments in Kansas. Therefore, existing safety performance functions (SPFs) must be adjusted for Kansas conditions, in order to increase accuracy of crash prediction. This study examined a way to adjust HSM calibration procedures by development of new regression coefficients for existing HSM-given SPF. Final calibration factors obtained through modified SPFs indicated significant improvement in crash prediction for rural multilane segments in Kansas. Additionally, obtained calibration factors indicated that the HSM is capable of predicting crashes at intersections at satisfactory level.

scholarly journals Calibration of the Highway Safety Manual and the SafetyAnalyst Methodologies for Ontario Highways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rural Highways ◽  
Part C ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Central Regions

SafetyAnalyst and the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) are two tools that are expected to revolutionize highway safety analyses. A key issue that allows SafetyAnalyst and HSM to become the new standards in road safety engineering is the calibration of their safety performance functions (SPFs) across time and jurisdictions. In this study, the methodologies of SafetyAnalyst and HSM are calibrated for Ontario to evaluate the effective transferability of their SPFs to local topographical conditions. A SafetyAnalyst calibration has been completed for Ontario highways and freeways, intersections, and ramps for six years (1998-2003) of traffic and accident counts. A data set which consists of 78 kilometres of rural two-lane two-way highways and 71 three- and four-legged stop controlled intersections located in the eastern and central regions of the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) with six years (2002 to 2007) of traffic volume and collision counts has been used to evaluate the HSM SPFs to Ontario data. Several goodness-of-fit (GOF) measures are computed to assess the transferability and suitability of the crash models for applicability in Ontario. The study suggests that while most of the SafetyAnalyst SPFs for highways and ramps are not adaptable to Ontario data, the recalibrated SafetyAnalyst SPFs for intersections and also the recalibrated HSM Part C predictive models for two-lane rural highways and intersections provide satisfactory results in comparison to the crash models developed specifically for Ontario. Finally, this research highlights the substantial need for future improvements in data quality for more reliable safety performance estimations and evaluations.

scholarly journals Calibration of the Highway Safety Manual and the SafetyAnalyst Methodologies for Ontario Highways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rural Highways ◽  
Part C ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Central Regions

SafetyAnalyst and the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) are two tools that are expected to revolutionize highway safety analyses. A key issue that allows SafetyAnalyst and HSM to become the new standards in road safety engineering is the calibration of their safety performance functions (SPFs) across time and jurisdictions. In this study, the methodologies of SafetyAnalyst and HSM are calibrated for Ontario to evaluate the effective transferability of their SPFs to local topographical conditions. A SafetyAnalyst calibration has been completed for Ontario highways and freeways, intersections, and ramps for six years (1998-2003) of traffic and accident counts. A data set which consists of 78 kilometres of rural two-lane two-way highways and 71 three- and four-legged stop controlled intersections located in the eastern and central regions of the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) with six years (2002 to 2007) of traffic volume and collision counts has been used to evaluate the HSM SPFs to Ontario data. Several goodness-of-fit (GOF) measures are computed to assess the transferability and suitability of the crash models for applicability in Ontario. The study suggests that while most of the SafetyAnalyst SPFs for highways and ramps are not adaptable to Ontario data, the recalibrated SafetyAnalyst SPFs for intersections and also the recalibrated HSM Part C predictive models for two-lane rural highways and intersections provide satisfactory results in comparison to the crash models developed specifically for Ontario. Finally, this research highlights the substantial need for future improvements in data quality for more reliable safety performance estimations and evaluations.

Aggregated North American safety performance functions for signalized and stop-controlled intersections

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 749-758
Author(s):  
Andrew B. Northmore ◽  
Eric Hildebrand
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Signalized Intersections ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Local Models ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Predictive Equations ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions

The statistical analysis of intersection collisions has allowed practitioners to develop reliable local models for collision prediction. While many North American jurisdictions have developed such models, a gap remains for the development of safety performance functions that represent the average North American intersection collision expectation. Such models could be used in the development of national guidelines, benchmarking local models and hotspots, and by jurisdictions lacking the capacity to develop their own models. This research bridged that gap by developing aggregate models of collision expectations at stop-controlled and signalized intersections in North America. In analyzing the results, it was found that the Highway Safety Manual predictive equations are not a good representation of the average intersection collision expectation. Further, it was found that the aggregate models are particularly useful to practitioners looking to estimate the change in collisions resulting from signalization given the partial cancelling out of jurisdiction-level effects.

Evaluation of Safety Performance Functions Based on Experimental Design Using a Cross-Validation Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 2636 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Han Wang ◽  
Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty ◽  
Jaeyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Major Road ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Annual Average Daily Traffic ◽  
Minor Road ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
The One ◽  
Leave One Out

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Part C provides a series of safety performance functions (SPFs) for different roadway conditions. The SPFs suggested in the HSM are formulated on the basis of exposure variables: the logarithms of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) on the major road and on the minor road under the base condition. In this research, data from 7,802 intersections in Florida were collected and processed. These intersections were categorized into seven types based on area type (rural or urban), number of legs (three or four), and number of approaches controlled by stop signs. Twenty-two SPF formulations, including the one suggested by the HSM, were developed for each intersection type for examination of the goodness-of-fit measures of the SPFs. In addition, the goodness of fit of each model of the 22 SPFs in each category was examined with 10-fold leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). With a comparison of the delta values generated with the LOOCV method, it is suggested that the SPF with the logarithm of the total entering vehicle volume and the ratio of the AADT on the minor road and the AADT on the major road are important. In addition, the SPFs with the AADT on the major road and the AADT on the minor road and their logarithmic transformations are also important. Therefore, it is suggested that the future HSM compare these two SPF formulations—as suggested in the current research, along with the original SPF formulation in the manual—and select the one with the best model fit on the basis of the delta value using LOOCV.

scholarly journals Crash Prediction Models for Horizontal Curve Segments on Two-Lane Rural Roads in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 9011
Author(s):  
Nopadon Kronprasert ◽  
Katesirint Boontan ◽  
Patipat Kanha
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Horizontal Curve ◽  
Crash Frequency ◽  
Rural Roads ◽  
Crash Prediction ◽  
Road Crashes ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Crash Prediction Models

The number of road crashes continues to rise significantly in Thailand. Curve segments on two-lane rural roads are among the most hazardous locations which lead to road crashes and tremendous economic losses; therefore, a detailed examination of its risk is required. This study aims to develop crash prediction models using Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) as a tool to identify the relationship among road alignment, road geometric and traffic conditions, and crash frequency for two-lane rural horizontal curve segments. Relevant data associated with 86,599 curve segments on two-lane rural road networks in Thailand were collected including road alignment data from a GPS vehicle tracking technology, road attribute data from rural road asset databases, and historical crash data from crash reports. Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) for horizontal curve segments were developed, using Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, and calibrated Highway Safety Manual models. The results showed that the most significant parameter affecting crash frequency is lane width, followed by curve length, traffic volume, curve radius, and types of curves (i.e., circular curves, compound curves, reverse curves, and broken-back curves). Comparing among crash prediction models developed, the calibrated Highway Safety Manual SPF outperforms the others in prediction accuracy.

Highway Safety Manual Calibration: Assessing Alternate Definitions of the Calibration Factor

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (30) ◽  
pp. 99-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Rajabi ◽  
Jennifer Harper Ogle ◽  
Patrick Gerard
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Calibration Factor ◽  
Crash Frequency ◽  
Calibration Process ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Safety Studies ◽  
Using Data

The publication of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) in 2010 established crash frequency prediction as the essential safety measure for safety studies. However, given that the models were developed using a single state’s data, the HSM recommends calibration of the prediction models using data from the jurisdiction where they will be applied. This calibration process has been conducted in several states and many questions have been raised as a result. This paper is intended to investigate different definitions and criteria for the calibration factors, and provide recommendations for practitioners on which definition to use. In addition to the calibration factors in the HSM and previously published definitions, two other calibration factor equations are proposed and compared using multiple goodness of fit measures. Whereas each definition may outperform others in certain measures, in this study, it is recommended to use the definition that maximizes the likelihood between predicted and observed crashes. The idea is to follow the same concept in both state-specific safety performance functions development and calibration process, which is maximizing the likelihood of predicted and observed crashes.

Application of Highway Safety Manual Method for Ramp Crash Prediction to Loop and Diamond Ramps

2017 ◽  
Vol 2636 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren J. Torbic ◽  
Douglas W. Harwood ◽  
Karin M. Bauer
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Method ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Crash Prediction ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Manual Method ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Separate Calibration

The AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM) now includes crash prediction procedures for ramps. Research was undertaken to assess how well these new crash prediction methods represented the safety performance of two ramp types with distinctly different geometrics: loop ramps and diamond ramps. The HSM crash prediction procedures were applied to 235 loop ramps and 243 diamond ramps in two states—California and Washington—and the results were compared with 5 years of actual crash data for the same ramps. The results indicate that the HSM crash prediction method can be applied to both loop and diamond ramps, but to compare the safety performance of these two ramp types properly, separate calibration of loop and diamond ramps is needed.

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