JTRF Volume 56 No. 3, Fall 2017Private Vehicle Ownership in Provincial China

Private vehicle ownership has rapidly grown with China’s economic development and increasing incomes. This paper analyzes China’s provincial demands for private vehicles during the post-opening period 2000 – 2012. Based on estimates from pooled, fi xed effects and Hausman-Taylor models, private vehicle ownership during this period grew at an average annual rate of over 20%, all else constant. The study focuses on the roles of economic, spatial, investment and regulatory factors in shaping private vehicle demands. The study fi nds that increases in GDP per capita and vehicle use cost reinforce and constrain, respectively, the strong trend toward increased ownership. And absent changes in population density, higher percentages of the population in urban areas increase the demand for private vehicles. But increasing population density provides stronger incentives for reducing vehicle demands. Municipal restrictions aimed at reducing the congestion and environmental effects of vehicle ownership and use are effective in reducing provincial demands. A separate analysis of provinces that are at least 60% urbanized identifi es important differences. Vehicle demands are income elastic and infrastructure investments have stronger effects in the most urbanized provinces than in less urbanized provinces.

JTRF Volume 56 No. 3, Fall 2017Bringing in the Sheaves: Changes in Canada’s Grain Supply Chain Through the Post Canadian Wheat Board Era

Vast distances in the Canadian grain handling system means that the supply chain is highly reliant on rail transportation. After years of relative stability, the grain supply chain has recently undergone many signifi cant changes, including deregulation in grain handling. However, the consequences emerging from some of these changes were unexpected. In this paper, we explore the evolving behavior of participants in the increasingly liberalized Canadian grain handling supply chain. The changes seem to be creating new winners and losers in the system. To this end, we fi nd that while current railroad regulations in Canada have led to effi ciencies, deregulation of grain handling seems to have generated gains for grain companies at the expense of farmers.

JTRF Volume 56 No. 3, Fall 2017A Framework to Analyze the Feasibilityof Vehicle Miles Traveled Fees to Financea Sustainable Transportation System

This paper presents a framework to analyze vehicle miles travelled (VMT) fees as an alternative to fi nance maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction transportation projects. The VMT feasibility framework addresses major factors related to public acceptance, revenues, technology, type of contract, government policies, enforcement, administration, and invoicing. We argue that our suggested VMT fee policy is an equitable usage-based system since in our analysis, VMT fees are differentiated by vehicle axles and emissions. In turn, VMT charges will also motivate fl eet owners to renew vehicles or switch to alternative transportation modes such as mass transit, walking, and biking. An example based on data from the state of Texas illustrates some of the potential revenues and benefi ts associated with a VMT fee policy.

JTRF Volume 56 No. 3, Fall 2017Preserving Railroad Infrastructure:The Case of Iowa Branch Rail Lines

In the 1970s, huge grain exports, deteriorating branch rail lines, poor railroad earnings and increased demand for new railroad locomotives and grain cars led railroads to apply for the abandonment of the deteriorating branch lines. The state of Iowa developed a program to subsidize the upgrading of 1,984 miles of branch lines. This paper analyzes the results of these programs and evaluates the potential economics of future branch rail line subsidy programs.

JTRF Volume 56 No. 3, Fall 2017On-Demand, App-Based Ride Services: A Studyof Emerging Ground Transportation ModesServing Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)

This research estimates and compares travel times and costs of transportation by Uber and Lyft (the latter are referred to here as transportation network companies or TNCs) against other forms of ground transportation to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). Using estimated travel times and costs derived from Google Maps and other sources as well as the 2015 LAX air passenger survey, we develop estimates of airport ground transportation access mode choice decisions. Among other fi ndings, our preferred nested logit specifi cation implies that if TNC fares were to be raised to match the current cost of taking a taxi to the airport, demand for TNC’s would fall by 20.9% and 23.3% (relative to initial TNC shares) for business and leisure passengers, respectively.

JTRF Volume 56 No. 3, Fall 2017Measuring the Transportation Workforce Skills Gap Using New Indices and Survey of Employers and Workers

Skills gap is a signifi cant mismatch between the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) required by employers and those held by workers. This study proposes four innovative indices to measure such KSA-gaps and calculates them using data from a survey of transportation workers and employers. The results suggest that the workers’ competencies do not match the employers’ requirements. Areas of particularly extensive KSA-gaps include knowledge of transportation, distribution, and logistics; knowledge of machines, tools, and equipment; equipment operation, maintenance, repair, and troubleshooting skills; critical thinking and problem-solving skills; work prioritization and resource-management skills; and ability to apply knowledge.

Calibration of the Highway Safety ManualGiven Safety Performance Functions for RuralMultilane Segments and Intersections in Kansas

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides models and methodologies for safety evaluation and prediction of safety performance of various types of roadways. However, predictive methods in the HSM are of limited use if they are not calibrated for local conditions. In this study, calibration procedures given in the HSM were followed for rural segments and intersections in Kansas. Results indicated that HSM overpredicts fatal and injury crashes and underpredicts total crashes on rural multilane roadway segments in Kansas. Therefore, existing safety performance functions (SPFs) must be adjusted for Kansas conditions, in order to increase accuracy of crash prediction. This study examined a way to adjust HSM calibration procedures by development of new regression coefficients for existing HSM-given SPF. Final calibration factors obtained through modified SPFs indicated significant improvement in crash prediction for rural multilane segments in Kansas. Additionally, obtained calibration factors indicated that the HSM is capable of predicting crashes at intersections at satisfactory level.

Stochastic Modeling of the Last Mile Problem for Delivery Fleet Planning

This paper presents a stochastic representation of the last mile problem that quantifies expected maintenance, regular labor, overtime labor, fuel, and carbon emission costs resulting from different delivery fleet options. The last mile delivery fleet planning model presented herein can be used in a decision framework to evaluate alternative delivery strategies involving fleet size and delivery frequency with information regarding cost, carbon emissions, service levels for available delivery hours, and payload capacity, as well as the transportation capacity needed to meet customer demand and lends itself well to performing what-if analyses.