Life-cycle optimization of structural systems based on cumulative prospect theory: Effects of the reference point and risk attitudes

Author(s):  
Minghui Cheng ◽  
Dan M. Frangopol
Author(s):  
Junxiang Xu ◽  
Jingni Guo ◽  
Jin Zhang

Current traffic assignment theories and methods are studied. To address the limitations of existing models and algorithms in solving the traffic assignment problems under uncertain supply and demand, a traffic assignment model based on the cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, the problem of uncertain supply and demand of the traffic network is described, and an improved traffic impedance function of road sections is proposed. Then, the reference point of generalized cost and the reference point of the dynamic section risk are set up, and the comprehensive cumulative prospect value function considering the preference coefficient of the reference point is given. A traffic assignment model based on the cumulative prospect theory is constructed, and an isolation niche genetic simulated annealing algorithm is designed to solve the model. Finally, with the highway traffic network in the Sichuan-Tibet region as an example, the process of network traffic equilibrium based on the cumulative prospect theory under the fixed and changing network structure is studied respectively, and parameter sensitivity and algorithm comparison are analyzed. The results show that the proposed traffic assignment model based on the cumulative prospect theory provides a good idea for solving the traffic assignment problem under uncertain supply and demand, and is of theoretical significance and application value.


2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanyan PENG ◽  
Xinwang LIU

Land auction is widely practiced in company and government decisions, especially in China. Bidders are always faced with two or more auctions in the period of a decision cycle. The outcome of the auction is under high risk. The bidder's risk attitude and preference will have a great influence on his/her bidding price. Prospect theory is currently the main descriptive theory of decision under risk. In this paper, we will consider the preferences of the decision-makers in land bidding decisions with the multi-attribute additive utility and reference point method in cumulative prospect theory. Three land auction models are proposed based on the appearance time of the land auctions. The simultaneous model uses cumulative prospect theory without considering the relationships between the auctions. The time sequential model involves the exchange auction decisions at different time with the third-generation prospect theory. The event sequential model further considers the reference point prediction in sequential land auction decisions. The three models can help the decision-makers make better bidding price decision when they are faced with several land auctions in the period of a decision cycle. A case study illustrates the processes and results of our approaches.


2019 ◽  
Vol 270 ◽  
pp. 03012
Author(s):  
Sylvia Indriany ◽  
Ade Sjafruddin ◽  
Aine Kusumawati ◽  
Widyarini Weningtyas

The use of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) in decision making related to transportation risk is still much debated. Mainly because of the travel and socio-economic characteristics of the traveller it possible for different responses to the specified Reference Point (RP) as well as the loss aversion. This difference can be seen from the value of Cumulative Prospect Theory parameters. Therefore, this paper will discuss about the determination of parameters CPT which affect public transportation mode choice model in the course of work trip activity. The reference point as an essential part of this study is determined based on the average travel time of commuter worker from South Tangerang City to Jakarta. Data obtained from stated preference survey, Feeder Busway/Busway and Commuter Line Jabodetabek as mode alternative and travel time attribute as a risk factor. The Binomial Logit model which has transformed utility distribution and probability with CPT and the Least Square Method to be obtained the parameters. Finally, some conclusions can be drawn that the CPT parameters produced by this study, have closed the range of value requirements in the CPT theory. So that the parameter value can be used to model the probability of mode choice with the risk of travel time in the study area.


2012 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Flavio Autran Monteiro Gomes ◽  
Xavier Ignacio González

Abstract.This short communication reviews the role of the TODIM method within behavioral decision theory and presents its genesis. Two important aspects of the method such as generalizing that method towards cumulative prospect theory and the choice of a reference point are further clarified.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document