Bayesian Belief Network Approach for Supply Risk Modelling

Today’s global and complex world increased the vulnerability to risks exponentially and organizations are compelled to develop effective risk management strategies for its mitigation. The prime focus of research is to design a supply risk model using Bayesian Belief Network bear in mind the tie-in of risk factors (i.e. objective and subjective) those are critical to a supply chain network. The proposed model can be re-engineered as per new information available at disclosure, so risk analysis will be current and relevant along the timeline as so situation is strained. The top three factors which influenced profitability were transportation risk and price risks. Netica is the platform used for designing and running simultaneous simulations on the Bayesian Network. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through a case study conducted in an Indian manufacturing supply chain taking inputs from supply chain/risk management experts. .

Fit for the Next Fifty Exercise Program: 25 Years of Reflections, Results, and Partnerships

Consistent exercise provides a multitude of physical, social, and emotional benefits. Common barriers to regular exercise for older adults include time, transportation, risk of injury, existing limitations, and negative experiences or attitudes about exercise. Fit for the Next Fifty is a comprehensive exercise and wellness program designed to address barriers and excuses. The program , based in CNY, has an impressive 25 year history of providing a unique mix of aerobic, strength training, yoga, and balance-based ballet. Participants (100-120) attend up to 5 classes per week at no charge during summer months and continue through winter months for a small fee. Developing and sustaining funding partnerships has been critical to the long-term success of Fit for the Next Fifty. Participants, ages 60-96, are active providers of feedback and suggestions, a key component to keeping the music, movements, and fellowship enjoyable and meaningful for over two decades. Program details, participant pictures and testimonials, research results, surveys across the years, and partnering/funding strategies provided. Of special interest is the social support dimension of the program. Participants have developed a sophisticated network to support each other outside of the exercise and wellness programs provided by Fit for the Next Fifty.

Design Optimization of a HAZMAT Multimodal Hub-and-Spoke Network with Detour

The growing transportation risk of hazardous materials (hazmat) is an important threat to public safety. As an efficient and reliable mode of transportation, the multimodal hub-and-spoke transport network helps to achieve economies of scale and reduce costs. Considering the dual goals of risk and cost management of hazmat transportation, a novel optimization model of a multimodal hub-and-spoke network with detour (MHSNWD) for hazmat on the strategic level is designed. It integrates the planning of hub location and route selection based on the risk quantification for different transportation modes. Additionally, a detour strategy is applied, which allows for more than two hub nodes to be selected to form an optimal path between any supply and demand nodes in a hub-and-spoke network. Then, the risk is taken as the main objective and the cost is converted into a budget constraint to solve the model by using CPLEX. Additionally, a numerical study is conducted based on a CAB dataset to find the influence of the number of hubs and budget constraints on the optimization results. In addition, a counterpart model of the multimodal hub-and-spoke network without detour (MHSNOD) is tested to validate the advantages of the proposed model of MHSNWD. The numerical experiment shows that an appropriate increase in the number of hubs and the cost budget can remarkably reduce network risk. Compared with MHSNOD, the optimal result of MHSNWD can achieve a marginal improvement in risk reduction. This work may provide an informative decision-making reference for planning a hazmat transportation network.

Research on Route Optimization of Hazardous Materials Transportation Considering Risk Equity

The consequences of a hazmat accident can be catastrophic due to the characteristics of hazardous materials. Different from the models, which are constructed from the perspective of “government-carrier”, this paper considers the three objectives of the risk, the cost, and the compensation cost from the “government-carrier-public” perspective, so as to construct a route optimization model of hazmat transportation considering risk equity. Moreover, considering that the difference in regional emergency response time will significantly affect the risk, this research incorporates the emergency response time into the transportation risk assessment function, and realizes risk equity by minimizing the total compensation cost based on the difference in regional emergency response time. To solve the proposed model, a multi-objective genetic algorithm based on linear weighting is designed. The results obtained from the case study verify the necessity of considering the risk equity in the route optimization model of hazardous materials transportation and prove that the established model and algorithm can find an optimal route that meets the expectations of the government, the carrier, and the public.

The Risk Analysis on the Siam Banjar Orange Supply Chain Distribution Channel in Barito Kuala Regency

Siam orange is a horticultural commodity that is very suitable and suitable for soil conditions for cultivation in tidal swamps. Wrong one area for the development of the Siam Banjar orange in South Kalimantan is located in the Barito Regency Kuala. As one of the agricultural commodities, Siam Banjar orange has high enough risk, so it needs good management in terms of this is called risk management. This study aims to identify Siam Banjar orange distribution channels, identify and analyze risks that occur in the supply chain distribution channel of Siam Banjar oranges, as well measure the risk on each member of the supply chain and search for those members that have the greatest risk. The data analysis method used is descriptive analysis, methods Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Weighted Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (WFMEA) to analyze the risks that occur and find members supply chain that has the greatest risk in the supply chain distribution channel Siam Banjar oranges in Barito Kuala Regency. From this research, it is found that the distribution channel of Siam orange Banjar in Barito Kuala Regency generally consists of farmers and traders, collectors, wholesalers and retailers and applied through five structures. A more accurate risk analysis result with the WFMEA method, value WRPN obtained for price risk (151.424), transportation risk (52.875), risk supply (52.380), quality risk (51.858), production risk (50.165) and risk environment (5.888). The results of the priority assessment of the Siam orange supply chain actors Banjar with the ANP method, namely farmers (0.371), traders (0.128), wholesalers (0.360) and retailers (0.142). Thus, members of the supply chain farmers who have the greatest risk. Keywords: Risk Analysis, Supply Chain, Siam Banjar Orange, Analytical Network Prosess (ANP)

Transportation Risk Control of Waste Disposal in the Healthcare System with Two-Echelon Waste Collection Network

This paper investigates a vehicle routing problem arising in the waste collection of the healthcare system with the concern of transportation risk. Three types of facilities abstracted from the health system are investigated in this paper, namely, facilities with collection points, facilities without collection points, and small facilities. Two-echelon collection mode is applied in which the waste generated by small facilities is first collected by collection points, and then transferred to the recycling centre. To solve this problem, we propose a mixed-integer linear programming model considering time windows and vehicle capacity, and we use particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm for solving large-scale problems. Numerical experiments show the capability of the proposed algorithm. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the influence of facilities with collection points and the collection routes. This research can provide a decision support tool for the routing of waste collection in the healthcare system.

Half Open Multi-Depot Heterogeneous Vehicle Routing Problem for Hazardous Materials Transportation

How to reduce the accidents of hazardous materials has become an important and urgent research topic in the safety management of hazardous materials. In this study, we focus on the half open multi-depot heterogeneous vehicle routing problem for hazardous materials transportation. The goal is to determine the vehicle allocation and the optimal route with minimum risk and cost for hazardous materials transportation. A novel transportation risk model is presented considering the variation of vehicle loading, vehicle types, and hazardous materials category. In order to balance the transportation risk and the transportation cost, we propose a bi-objective mixed integer programming model. A hybrid intelligent algorithm is developed based on the ε-constraint method and genetic algorithm to obtain the Pareto optimal solutions. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Compared with the close multi-depot heterogeneous vehicle routing problem, the average risk and cost obtained by the proposed bi-objective mixed integer programming model can be reduced by 3.99% and 2.01%, respectively. In addition, compared with the half open multi-depot homogeneous vehicle routing problem, the cost is significantly reduced with the acceptable risk.

ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS RATE IN TYUMEN: 21th CENTURY TRENDS

The article deals with the problems of road traffic accidents rate in a large Russian city Tyumen in the late 20 – early 21st centuries. The statistics describes the actual road safety (RS) in Tyumen in 1998–2020. The article presents models based on specific data from Tyumen, that confirm R. Smid's law on the relationship between motorization and the estimated characteristics of RS – human risk (HR) and transportation risk (TR). The trends of HR and TR formation over time for the Tyumen transport system correspond to the stage of a qualitative transition from the third to the fourth RS paradigm. The leading countries are characterized by the fifth paradigm of RS in the field of ensuring the safety of the population today. This is a system of views based on the ideas of the highest value of human life and the need to limit transport mobility, transfer it to another quality. Tyumen with the values of the third and fourth paradigms of RS in practice, so far in all objective manifestations repeats the experience of cities in other countries that passed this stage 20–30 years ago.