Urbanization and climate change impacts on future flood risk in the Pearl River Delta under shared socioeconomic pathways

In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and rice yield under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using the Ceres-Rice Model based on high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological and soil data, and the incorporation of future climate data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic data is extracted from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) namely: The Community Atmosphere Model 4 (CAM4), The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate 5 (MIROC5) and the Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (NorESM1). The modeling results show that climate change has major negative impacts on both rice growth and rice yields at all study sites. More specifically, the average of flowering durations decreases by 2.8 days (3.9 days), and the maturity date decreases by 11.0 days (14.7 days) under the 1.5 °C and (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. The yield for early mature rice and late mature rice are reduced by 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) and 151.8 kg/ha (380.0 kg/ha) under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. Adjusting the planting dates of eight days later and 15 days earlier for early mature rice and late mature rice are simulated to be adaptively effective, respectively. The simulated optimum fertilizer amount is about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial fertilizer and organic matter being applied.

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Rapid Urbanization and Implications for Flood Risk Management in Hinterland of the Pearl River Delta, China: The Foshan Study

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s8042223 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 2223-2239 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Hao Zhang ◽

Wei-chun Ma ◽

Xiang-rong Wang

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Pearl River Delta ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

River Delta ◽

Pearl River ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

The Pearl River Delta ◽

The Pearl River

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Quantification of Multiple Climate Change and Human Activity Impact Factors on Flood Regimes in the Pearl River Delta of China

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2016/3928920 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 2016 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Yihan Tang ◽

Shufeng Xi ◽

Xiaohong Chen ◽

Yanqing Lian

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Pearl River Delta ◽

River Network ◽

River Delta ◽

Pearl River ◽

The Pearl River Delta ◽

The Pearl River ◽

Flood Flow

Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD), with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l.) in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the indexR, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.

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